Oaklawn Park Selections for March 1, 2018

Horse racing at Oaklawn Park kicks off the month of March on Thursday. The turn into March marks the approximate halfway mark of the 2018 season. While improving after a very slow start, the OakPick simulation software needs a big month to have a chance to match the results from the 2017 season. In any case, here is the Thursday, March 1, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 8 - Superstyle 
• 7 - Brockton George 
• 4 - Ninth Hour
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Senor Grits 
• 6 - Como Se Llama 
• 5 - Midnight Shine
• 3rd Race
• 1 - Mary Lou 
• 6 - Dixie Flyer 
• 7 - Elevenpoint River
• 4th Race
• 5 - Plum Gorgeous 
• 6 - Enchanting Embrace 
• 1 - Big Red Seven
• 5th Race
• 3 - Tiz Funny 
• 9 - Snoose Sasa 
• 11 - Tarpys Zip
• 6th Race
• 3 - Gettin Even 
• 7 - Stormy Forecast 
• 1 - One River Place
• 7th Race
• 12 - Mesa Skyline 
• 1 - My Golden Tale 
• 9 - Distorted Ransom
• 8th Race
• 4 - Grade One 
• 5 - Nuclear Option 
• 1 - Pure Shot
• 9th Race
• 1 - B Dubya 
• 5 - Jacob Rocks 
• 10 - Black Bomber 

Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will post a weekend results summary early next week.

Monte Carlo Results at Oaklawn February 22-25, 2018

The sixth week of racing at Oaklawn Park brought a positive change of fortune. The OakPick Monte Carlo software ended the weekend +37.20 for 33 races (three top picks scratched). I was just about ready to scrap the whole thing and start over after the first five weeks of this season, but the program may just be catching its stride. In any case, here are the weekend's results.

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Results for Thursday, February 22:

• 1st Race
• 7 - Picture Tube (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Strawn's Cash (Show) 
• 8 - Reverend Sam (Win)
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Eidolon (Win) 
• 7 - Okie Toast (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Ornamental Iron (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 2 - Wild About You (Place) 
• 6 - Treasury Bill (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Perfect Saint (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 11 - Munyak (Also Ran) 
• 4 - East Moon Lake (Show) 
• 5 - Ray's Big Boy (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 1 - R Nanalee (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Cats Honor (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Acumen (Place)
• 6th Race 
• 3 - Paganol (Win) 
• 6 - Indy Awesome (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Silver Spun (SCRATCH)
• 7th Race 
• 2 - Nonhelma (Win) 
• 5 - Notnthemoodforthat (Also Ran) 
• 1 - She Beast (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 2 - Eskimo Kisses (Win) 
• 1 - First Alternate (Place) 
• 5 - Sydney Freeman (Show) 
• 2/1 Exacta: $18.60 
• 2/1/5 Trifecta: $44.70
• 9th Race 
• 1 - Murika (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - La Fee Verte (Place) 
• 7 - Mandy's Grace (Win) 
• 7/3 Exacta: $21.60

Summary for Thursday, February 22 at Oaklawn: 4 Winners on Top Pick, 2 Exacta, 1 Trifecta, 14 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 6 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 24 Days 
• $404 (202 Races, 16 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 16 (7.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $238.40  
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$165.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 24 Days 
• $1,126 (218 Races, $1,308  - $182 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 16 (7.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,253.10 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $127.10

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results from February 23, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Letsrockthisparty (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - Scrimps (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Kingofthefairway (SCRATCH)
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Moon Over Cuzco (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Sabbatarian (SCRATCH) 
• 12 - Belvin (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 10 - Trading Cash (SCRATCH) 
• 2 - Corbin (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Fareeq (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Get That Box (Win) 
• 5 - Dynabeaver (Show) 
• 3 - Luv Bandit (Also Ran)
• 5th Race
• 1/1A - Coastal Highway (Also Ran) / Daring Ego (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Ripe (Show) 
• 5 - Take Charge Easy (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 2 - Princess Drossie (Show) 
• 1 - Ma'am (Win) 
• 6 - Wholehearted (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 7 - Superstar Bea (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Savedbyanangel (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Frijolilla (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 8 - Action Everyday (Also Ran) 
• 7 - The Red Dude (Show) 
• 1 - Rapid Dial (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 8 - General Sherman (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Taylor's Sense (Win) 
• 4 - Bow Ready (Place) 
• 3/4 Exacta: $8.50

Summary for Friday, February 23 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 23 OTB (4 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 25 Days 
• $418 (209 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 17 (8.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $246.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$171.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 25 Days 
• $1,166 (227 Races, $1,362 - $196 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 17 (7.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,261.60
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $95.60

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for February 24, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 6 - Freestyler (Show) 
• 5 - Bad Student (Win) 
• 2 - Hunter's Strike (Place) 
• 5/2 Exacta: $27.30
• 5/2/6 Trifecta: $32.10
• 2nd Race 
• 3 - Bluebird Ridge (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Farley (SCRATCH) 
• 5 - Nicky Numbers (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 3 - Serious I Candy (Win) 
• 6 - Graceland (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Promissory Note (Place) 
• 3/8 Exacta: $18.90
• 4th Race 
• 3 - McQ (Place) 
• 2 - Hillbilly Royalty (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Rippin Ranger (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 5 - Bubbas Dixie (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Husker Red (Show) 
• 6 - King Abner (Win)
• 6th Race 
• 6 - Mogowan (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Out of Hydeing (Show) 
• 4 - Berko (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Fastanista (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Ministry (Win) 
• 4 - Avisionofchocolate (Place) 
• 7/4 Exacta: $24.50
• 8th Race 
• 6 - Wild Caramelo (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Mitole (Place) 
• 2 - Direct Dial (Show)
• 9th Race 
• 7 - Klassie Connect (Show) 
• 5 - Pastiche (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Wilburn's Angel (Win)

Summary for Saturday, February 24 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 3 Exacta, 1 Trifecta, 14 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 5 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 26 Days 
• $436 (218 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 18 (8.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $252.80
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$183.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 26 Days 
• $1,212 (236 Races, $1,416 - $204 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 20 (8.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,332.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $120.30

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for February 25, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Do It (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Miss Discreet (Show) 
• 6 - Misty Journey (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Sophie's Pocket (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Sweet Sweet Kim (Show) 
• 6 - Miss D Irish (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Sidney's Ransom (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Shakedown (Place)
• 1 - Jimmy D (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 6 - Chevy to the Levy (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Herald Square (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Pretty Greeley (Place)
• 5th Race 
• 7 - I Am Miss Brown (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues (Also Ran) 
• 2/2B - Okbyecya (Place) / String Bikini (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 5 - Mr Ark (Also Ran) 
• 8 - October Sky (Show) 
• 2 - Detroit Cowboy (Place)
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Kalalou (Place) 
• 4 - She Has Risen (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Sparkle O Mine (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 3 - Vilaro (Show) 
• 1 - Prized Bourbon (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Includere (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 11 - Texas Jambalaya (Show) 
• 2 - Midnight's Fantasy (Also Ran)
• 3 - Waco Bodene (Place)

Summary for Sunday, February 25 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 14 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 0 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 27 Days 
• $454 (227 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 18 (7.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $252.80 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$201.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 27 Days 
• $1,262 (245 Races, $1,470 - $208 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 20 (8.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,332.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $70.30

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

We are approximately half way through the 2018 racing season at Oaklawn Park. The OakPick software is starting to come to life on Win Bets on the top pick. The win rate was 18.2% this weekend compared to the 6.2% for the first 5 weekends. The expectation is that the program should pick between 12 - 15% through the entire season. The picks for Thursday's racing will come out late tomorrow night.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 25, 2018

Here is the Sunday, February 25, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick Monte Carlo computer program. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Do It 
• 3 - Miss Discreet 
• 6 - Misty Journey
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Sophie's Pocket 
• 7 - Sweet Sweet Kim 
• 6 - Miss D Irish
• 3rd Race
• 5 - Sidney's Ransom 
• 3 - Shakedown 
• 1 - Jimmy D
• 4th Race
• 6 - Chevy to the Levy 
• 8 - Herald Square 
• 2 - Pretty Greeley 
• 5th Race (CHECK PROGRAM NUMBERS)
• 7 - I Am Miss Brown 
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues 
• 2/2B - Okbyecya / String Bikini
• 6th Race
• 5 - Mr Ark 
• 8 - October Sky 
• 2 - Detroit Cowboy
• 7th Race
• 5 - Kalalou  
• 4 - She Has Risen 
• 1 - Sparkle O Mine
• 8th Race
• 3 - Vilaro 
• 1 - Prized Bourbon 
• 6 - Includere
• 9th Race
• 11 - Texas Jambalaya 
• 2 - Midnight's Fantasy
• 3 - Waco Bodene

Good luck on Oaklawn's final racing day of February for the year. The 2018 Oaklawn live racing season is flying passed us. I will summarize the weekend and the year to date early in the week.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 24, 2018

Here is the Saturday, February 24, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick Monte Carlo software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 6 - Freestyler 
• 5 - Bad Student 
• 2 - Hunter's Strike
• 2nd Race
• 3 - Bluebird Ridge 
• 4 - Farley 
• 5 - Nicky Numbers
• 3rd Race
• 3 - Serious I Candy 
• 6 - Graceland 
• 8 - Promissory Note
• 4th Race
• 3 - McQ 
• 2 - Hillbilly Royalty
• 7 - Rippin Ranger
• 5th Race
• 5 - Bubbas Dixie 
• 4 - Husker Red 
• 6 - King Abner
• 6th Race
• 6 - Mogowan 
• 3 - Out of Hydeing 
• 4 - Berko
• 7th Race
• 3 - Fastanista 
• 7 - Ministry 
• 4 - Avisionofchocolate
• 8th Race
• 6 - Wild Caramelo 
• 3 - Mitole 
• 2 - Direct Dial
• 9th Race
• 7 - Klassie Connect
• 5 - Pastiche 
• 6 - Wilburn's Angel

For February 24, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000548 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000036717 
• P(7 win) = 0.00001086713 
• P(6 win) = 0.00018645110 
• P(5 win) = 0.00204333373 
• P(4 win) = 0.01483038392 
• P(3 win) = 0.07127212336 
• P(2 win) = 0.21865467281 
• P(1 win) = 0.38849185211 
• P(0 win) = 0.30450994318

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.69549005682 
• At least 2 win = 0.30699820470 
• At least 3 win = 0.08834353189 
• At least 4 win = 0.01707140853 
• At least 5 win = 0.00224102461 
• At least 6 win = 0.00019769088 
• At least 7 win = 0.00001123979 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000037265 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000548

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 23, 2018

Here is the Friday, February 23, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Letsrockthisparty 
• 3 - Scrimps 
• 7 - Kingofthefairway
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Moon Over Cuzco 
• 5 - Sabbatarian 
• 12 - Belvin
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Trading Cash 
• 2 - Corbin 
• 5 - Fareeq
• 4th Race
• 2 - Get That Box
• 5 - Dynabeaver 
• 3 - Luv Bandit 
• 5th Race
• 1/1A - Coastal Highway / Daring Ego 
• 6 - Ripe 
• 5 - Take Charge Easy
• 6th Race
• 2 - Princess Drossie 
• 1 - Ma'am 
• 6 - Wholehearted
• 7th Race
• 7 - Superstar Bea 
• 9 - Savedbyanangel 
• 6 - Frijolilla
• 8th Race
• 8 - Action Everyday 
• 7 - The Red Dude 
• 1 - Rapid Dial
• 9th Race
• 8 - General Sherman 
• 3 - Taylor's Sense 
• 4 - Bow Ready

For February 23, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000100
• P(8 win) = 0.00000008217
• P(7 win) = 0.00000298521
• P(6 win) = 0.00006305515
• P(5 win) = 0.00085328183
• P(4 win) = 0.00767034031
• P(3 win) = 0.04579369589
• P(2 win) = 0.17505584416
• P(1 win) = 0.38870357143
• P(0 win) = 0.38185714286

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.61814285714
• At least 2 win = 0.22943928571
• At least 3 win = 0.05438344156
• At least 4 win = 0.00858974567
• At least 5 win = 0.00091940536
• At least 6 win = 0.00006612354
• At least 7 win = 0.00000306838
• At least 8 win = 0.00000008317
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000100

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 22, 2018

Here is the February 22, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Picture Tube 
• 5 - Strawn's Cash
• 8 - Reverend Sam
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Eidolon 
• 7 - Okie Toast 
• 4 - Ornamental Iron
• 3rd Race
• 2 - Wild About You 
• 6 - Treasury Bill 
• 4 - Perfect Saint
• 4th Race
• 11 - Munyak 
• 4 - East Moon Lake 
• 5 - Ray's Big Boy
• 5th Race
• 1 - R Nanalee 
• 8 - Cats Honor 
• 2 - Acumen
• 6th Race
• 3 - Paganol 
• 6 - Indy Awesome 
• 1 - Silver Spun
• 7th Race
• 2 - Nonhelma 
• 5 - Notnthemoodforthat 
• 1 - She Beast
• 8th Race
• 2 - Eskimo Kisses 
• 1 - First Alternate 
• 5 - Sydney Freeman
• 9th Race
• 1 - Murika 
• 3 - La Fee Verte 
• 7 - Mandy's Grace

For February 22, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000158
• P(8 win) = 0.00000012443
• P(7 win) = 0.00000433458
• P(6 win) = 0.00008735620
• P(5 win) = 0.00112198894
• P(4 win) = 0.00952008198
• P(3 win) = 0.05334019343
• P(2 win) = 0.19020767357
• P(1 win) = 0.39150878729
• P(0 win) = 0.35420945800

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.64579054200
• At least 2 win = 0.25428175470
• At least 3 win = 0.06407408113
• At least 4 win = 0.01073388770
• At least 5 win = 0.00121380572
• At least 6 win = 0.00009181678
• At least 7 win = 0.00000446058
• At least 8 win = 0.00000012601
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000158

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

February 15-19 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

After five weeks of racing at Oaklawn Park, I am just about ready to go through a full re-write of the OakPick program. There was a winning day over the 5 days of muddy/sloppy racing, but the overall season results are just flat disappointing. Here are the results from the last weekend of racing.

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Thursday, February 15 results:

• 1st Race
• 5 - Strike Perfection (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Frigidish (Place) 
• 8 - Caramel Cream (Win) 
• 8/2 Exacta: $15.50
• 2nd Race 
• 2 - Gallopingguinness (Show) 
• 8 - Ain'tseentheball (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Shiny Armor (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 2 - Dorothe Marie (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Sweet Abigail (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Bella Vaquera (Also Ran)
• 4th Race
• 7 - Kentucky Brown (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Seattle Firm (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Cash Tiz Wonderful (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 10 - Jean's Beauty (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Roada Wish (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Florida Bird (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 8 - Awesome Day (SCRATCH) 
• 1 - Angelo's Ashes (Win) 
• 6 - Moolamiss (Place) 1/6 Exacta: $3.90
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Special Concoction (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Warcraft (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Flying Mr K. (Also Ran)
• 8th Race
• 2 - Promising Shoes (Also Ran) 
• 3 - J P of Galilee (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Light Bound Bid (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 1 - Tarpys Zip (Show) 
• 5 - Last Young Thing (Also Ran) 
• 6 - War Or Peace (Also Ran)

Summary for Thursday, February 15 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 2 Exacta, 6    out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 19 Days 
• $314.00 (157 Races, 14 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 10 (6.4%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $122.60 
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$191.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 19 Days 
• $880 (171 Races, $1,026 - $146 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 12 (7.0%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,179.70 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $299.70

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for Friday February 16:

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Serious I Candy (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Blues Corner (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Sweet Tatum (Place)
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Piratess (SCRATCH) 
• 12 - Chloe Creek (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Ordained Kiss (Win)
• 3rd Race 
• 9 - Read the Cards (Place) 
• 7 - Forge Ahead Franki (Show) 
• 2 - Kerugma (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Darion's Dream (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Big Axe (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Arch Arch Baby (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 2 - Choir Director (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Spring d'Oro (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Long Station (Place)
• 6th Race 
• 3 - Good Move (Win) 
• 5 - Noho (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Unprovoked (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Cowboy U Know (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Jive Daddy (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Or Sunday (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 1 - Okie Diva (Win) 
• 6 - Profound Moment (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Our Majesty (Place) 
• 1/3 Exacta: $21.20 
• 9th Race 
• 5 - Good Play (Also Ran) 
• 8 - After Party (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Otto's Dream (Also Ran)

Summary for Friday, February 16 at Oaklawn: 2 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 20 Days 
• $330.00 (165 Races, 15 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 12 (7.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $149.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$180.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 20 Days 
• $926 (180 Races, $1,080 - $154 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 13 (7.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,200.90 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $274.90

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for Saturday, February 17:

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Rio Norte (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Bye Crazy Eyes (Show) 
• 1 - Eternal Force (Win)
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Speedy Dansmere (Place) 
• 12 - Wishes Candy (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Uncle Pappy (SCRATCH)
• 3rd Race 
• 4 - Rio Seco (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Pitchfork Mountain (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Minefield (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 8 - Imperatore (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Carve (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Misterbulltoyou (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 6 - News Box (Show) 
• 3 - Air Power (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Beat the Heat (Place)
• 6th Race 
• 8 - Reckling (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Love That Lute (SCRATCH) 
• 9 - Bird Orr Brady (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 1 - Cherokee Salute (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Desert Thief  (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Crack Your Whip (Place)
• 8th Race 
• 2 - Moneymeister (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Rickhouse (SCRATCH) 
• 1/1A - Lighthawk (Also Ran) / Powerful Ally (Win)
• 9th Race 
• 7 - Defy (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Polar River (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Terra Promessa (Place)
• 10th Race 
• 9 - Cannington (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Kidnap (SCRATCH) 
• 8 - Flyin' Orphan (Also Ran)

Summary for Saturday, February 17 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 25 OTB (5 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 21 Days 
• $350 (175 Races, 15 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 12 (6.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $149.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$200.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 21 Days 
• $966 (190 Races, $1,140 - $174 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 13 (6.8%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,200.90 
• Running Profit/Loss  
• $234.90

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for Sunday, February 18:

• 1st Race 
• 5 - Elevenpoint River (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Moonlight Train (Place) 
• 7 - Petal Path (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 11 - Seaside Surprise (Show) 
• 6 - Dixie Forest (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Featherstone  (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race
• 9 - Artesia Wells (Also Ran) 
• 3 - I'm a Lucky Guy (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Runawaygrasshopper (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 3 - Intercession (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Corinthian's Glory (Win) 
• 5 - Heavenly Daze (Place) 
• 2/5 Exacta: $12.00
• 5th Race 
• 12 - Sing Prada Sing  (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Posse Gone Wild (Show) 
• 8 - Kantastic (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 5 - Strong Yen (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Westfest (Place) 
• 3 - Burgameister (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Dan the Tin Man (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Richie the Bull (Show) 
• 2 - Dale the Bug Man (Also Ran)
• 8th Race
• 1 - Storm Advisory (Show) 
• 4 - Uncontested (Place) 
• 3 - Constantino (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 3 - Got Mojo (Place) 
• 1 - Early Shipman (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Zack Ridge Road (Show)

Summary for Sunday, February 19 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 12 out of 27 OTB (0 scratch, 1 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 22 Days 
• $368 (184 Races, 15 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 12 (6.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $149.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$218.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 22 Days 
• $1020 (190 Races, $1,194 - $174 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 14 (7.0%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,212.90 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $192.90

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Results for Monday, February 19:

• 1st Race 
• 5 - The Girl Factor (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Rulzrmadetobbroken (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Triple Kapalua (Show)
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Small Town Hero (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Tiz Showbiz (Also Ran)
• 2 - On the Lam (Show)
• 3rd Race 
• 7 - Glitnir (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Early Bid (Show) 
• 1A - Roma Road (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Royal Edition (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Blasphemy (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Proximus (Win)
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Royal Squeeze (Show) 
• 3 - Cu Rahy (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Hallelujah Hit (Also Ran)
• 6th Race
•  8 - Leinster (Also Ran) 
• 7 - D'oros Ruler (Also Ran)
• 6 - Yellow Wolf (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Foxy Mischief (Show) 
• 2 - Getupbabygetup (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Miz K (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 10 - Futile (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Untrapped (Also Ran) 
• 11 - The Lieutenant (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 10 - Combatant (Place) 
• 2 - Sporting Chance (Show) 
• 7 - Retirement Fund (Also Ran)
• 10th Race 
• 4 - Catdaddy (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Plainsman (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Bode's Maker (Also Ran)

Summary for Monday, February 19 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 30 OTB (0 scratch, 0 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 23 Days
• $388 (194 Races, 15 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 12 (6.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $149.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$238.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 23 Days 
• $1,080 (209 Races, $1,254 - $174 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 14 (6.7%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,212.90 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $132.90

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

That's a wrap on the Presidents' Day racing weekend. The picks for this week will come out later today.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 19, 2018

Presidents' Day at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs will feature two graded stakes races including the Southwest Stakes. Three year-olds dreaming of Triple Crown glory will be competing in the 9th race. I will be taking my daughters and meeting family and friends at the race track for the first time in 2018. Here is the February 19, 2018 tip sheet generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 5 - The Girl Factor 
• 1 - Rulzrmadetobbroken 
• 3 - Triple Kapalua 
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Small Town Hero 
• 10 - Tiz Showbiz 
• 2 - On the Lam  
• 3rd Race 
• 7 - Glitnir
• 8 - Early Bid 
• 1/1A - Yeowzer / Roma Road 
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Royal Edition 
• 6 - Blasphemy 
• 1 - Proximus 
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Royal Squeeze 
• 3 - Cu Rahy 
• 6 - Hallelujah Hit
• 6th Race 
• 8 - Leinster 
• 7 - D'oros Ruler 
• 6 - Yellow Wolf 
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Foxy Mischief 
• 2 - Getupbabygetup 
• 5 - Miz K 
• 8th Race 
• 10 - Futile 
• 1 - Untrapped 
• 11 - The Lieutenant
• 9th Race 
• 10 - Combatant
• 2 - Sporting Chance 
• 7 - Retirement Fund 
• 10th Race 
• 4 - Catdaddy 
• 10 - Plainsman 
• 1 - Bode's Maker

For February 19, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(10 win) = 0.00000000021 
• P(9 win) = 0.00000001794 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000067534 
• P(7 win) = 0.00001501119 
• P(6 win) = 0.00021811454 
• P(5 win) = 0.00216468493 
• P(4 win) = 0.01486042894 
• P(3 win) = 0.06967753026 
• P(2 win) = 0.21354939667 
• P(1 win) = 0.38630391271 
• P(0 win) = 0.31321022727

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.68678977273 
• At least 2 win = 0.30048586002 
• At least 3 win = 0.08693646336 
• At least 4 win = 0.01725893310 
• At least 5 win = 0.00239850416 
• At least 6 win = 0.00023381923 
• At least 7 win = 0.00001570468 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000069349 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000001815 
• At least 10 win = 0.00000000021

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will be traveling home after the day at Oaklawn Park, so the weekend summary may come out later than normal.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 18, 2018

Here is the Sunday, February 18, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick Monte Carlo software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 5 - Elevenpoint River 
• 2 - Moonlight Train
• 7 - Petal Path
• 2nd Race
• 11 - Seaside Surprise
• 6 - Dixie Forest 
• 7 - Featherstone
• 3rd Race
• 9 - Artesia Wells 
• 3 - I'm a Lucky Guy 
• 6 - Runawaygrasshopper
• 4th Race
• 3 - Intercession 
• 2 - Corinthian's Glory
• 5 - Heavenly Daze
• 5th Race
• 12 - Sing Prada Sing 
• 6 - Posse Gone Wild 
• 8 - Kantastic
• 6th Race
• 5 - Strong Yen
• 4 - Westfest 
• 3 - Burgameister
• 7th Race
• 5 - Dan the Tin Man
• 7 - Richie the Bull
• 2 - Dale the Bug Man
• 8th Race
• 1 - Storm Advisory  
• 4 - Uncontested 
• 3 - Constantino
• 9th Race
• 3 - Got Mojo 
• 1 - Early Shipman
• 7 - Zack Ridge Road

For February 18, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) =0.00000000179 
• P(8 win) =0.00000013815 
• P(7 win) =0.00000469874 
• P(6 win) =0.00009265610 
• P(5 win) =0.00116739155 
• P(4 win) =0.00974575897 
• P(3 win) =0.05391273925 
• P(2 win) =0.19057919852 
• P(1 win) =0.39066169645 
• P(0 win) =0.35383572049

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win =0.64616427951 
• At least 2 win =0.25550258307 
• At least 3 win =0.06492338455 
• At least 4 win =0.01101064531 
• At least 5 win =0.00126488633 
• At least 6 win =0.00009749478 
• At least 7 win =0.00000483868 
• At least 8 win =0.00000013994 
• At least 9 win =0.00000000179

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 17, 2018

The full card for  Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs on February 17 has 10 races which includes the Bayakoa Stakes (a Grade 3 stakes) as the feature race. The tip sheet generated by my  OakPick Monte Carlo software is found below. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Rio Norte 
• 2 - Bye Crazy Eyes 
• 1 - Eternal Force
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Speedy Dansmere 
• 12 - Wishes Candy 
• 3 - Uncle Pappy
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Rio Seco 
• 5 - Pitchfork Mountain 
• 6 - Minefield
• 4th Race
• 8 - Imperatore 
• 2 - Carve 
• 3 - Misterbulltoyou
• 5th Race
• 6 - News Box 
• 3 - Air Power 
• 1 - Beat the Heat
• 6th Race
• 8 - Reckling 
• 6 - Love That Lute 
• 9 - Bird Orr Brady
• 7th Race
• 1 - Cherokee Salute 
• 9 - Desert Thief 
• 2 - Crack Your Whip
• 8th Race
• 2 - Moneymeister 
• 6 - Rickhouse 
• 1/1A - Lighthawk / Powerful Ally
• 9th Race
• 7 - Defy 
• 1 - Polar River 
• 6 - Terra Promessa
• 10th Race
• 9 - Cannington 
• 2 - Kidnap 
• 8 - Flyin' Orphan

For February 17, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(10 win) = 0.00000000040 
• P(9 win) = 0.00000003141 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000111025 
• P(7 win) = 0.00002311395 
• P(6 win) = 0.00031388343 
• P(5 win) = 0.00290491166 
• P(4 win) = 0.01855313735
• P(3 win) = 0.08073854093 
• P(2 win) = 0.22908761653 
• P(1 win) = 0.38266336838 
• P(0 win) = 0.28571428571

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.71428571429 
• At least 2 win = 0.33162234591 
• At least 3 win = 0.10253472938 
• At least 4 win = 0.02179618845 
• At least 5 win = 0.00324305110 
• At least 6 win = 0.00033813944 
• At least 7 win = 0.00002425601 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000114206 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000003181 
• At least 10 win = 0.00000000040

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. A summary of the full Presidents' Day weekend results will be posted on next Tuesday or Wednesday.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 16, 2018

Here is the February 16, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick Monte Carlo software. The predictions here are always free (you get what you pay for), but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Serious I Candy 
• 4 - Blues Corner 
• 8 - Sweet Tatum
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Piratess 
• 12 - Chloe Creek 
• 11 - Ordained Kiss
• 3rd Race
• 9 - Read the Cards 
• 7 - Forge Ahead Franki 
• 2 - Kerugma
• 4th Race
• 2 - Darion's Dream 
• 8 - Big Axe 
• 9 - Arch Arch Baby
• 5th Race
• 2 - Choir Director 
• 5 - Spring d'Oro 
• 6 - Long Station
• 6th Race
• 3 - Good Move 
• 5 - Noho 
• 4 - Unprovoked
• 7th Race
• 3 - Cowboy U Know 
• 8 - Jive Daddy 
• 9 - Or Sunday
• 8th Race
• 1 - Okie Diva 
• 6 - Profound Moment 
• 3 - Our Majesty
• 9th Race
• 5 - Good Play 
• 8 - After Party 
• 3 - Otto's Dream

For February 16, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000149 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000011610 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000401133 
• P(6 win) = 0.00008058390 
• P(5 win) = 0.00103735467 
• P(4 win) = 0.00887454930 
• P(3 win) = 0.05045811811 
• P(2 win) = 0.18387053946 
• P(1 win) = 0.38968707133 
• P(0 win) = 0.36598765432

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.63401234568 
• At least 2 win = 0.24432527435 
• At least 3 win = 0.06045473489 
• At least 4 win = 0.00999661679 
• At least 5 win = 0.00112206748 
• At least 6 win = 0.00008471282 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000412892 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000011759 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000149

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. A summary of the weekend's results will be posted early next week.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 15, 2018

This Thursday kicks off a big weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs. Several stakes races highlight the action on Saturday and Monday. Here is the tip sheet for Thursday, February 15 generated by my OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 5 - Strike Perfection 
• 2 - Frigidish 
• 8 - Caramel Cream
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Gallopingguinness 
• 8 - Ain'tseentheball 
• 11 - Shiny Armor
• 3rd Race
• 2 - Dorothe Marie 
• 4 - Sweet Abigail 
• 5 - Bella Vaquera
• 4th Race
• 7 - Kentucky Brown 
• 1 - Seattle Firm 
• 6 - Cash Tiz Wonderful
• 5th Race
• 10 - Jean's Beauty 
• 4 - Roada Wish 
• 8 - Florida Bird
• 6th Race
• 8 - Awesome Day 
• 1 - Angelo's Ashes 
• 6 - Moolamiss
• 7th Race
• 5 - Special Concoction 
• 7 - Warcraft 
• 11 - Flying Mr K.
• 8th Race
• 2 - Promising Shoes 
• 3 - J P of Galilee 
• 4 - Light Bound Bid
• 9th Race
• 1 - Tarpys Zip 
• 5 - Last Young Thing 
• 6 - War Or Peace

For February 15, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000083 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006975 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000259477 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005610676 
• P(5 win) = 0.00077701783 
• P(4 win) = 0.00714654236 
• P(3 win) = 0.04364826768 
• P(2 win) = 0.17069008225 
• P(1 win) = 0.38777769740 
• P(0 win) = 0.38990162037

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.61009837963 
• At least 2 win = 0.22232068223 
• At least 3 win = 0.05163059998 
• At least 4 win = 0.00798233230 
• At least 5 win = 0.00083578993 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005877210 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000266535 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000007058 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000083

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. A summary post after the full weekend of racing will be done early next week.

February 8-11 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

Well, the best way to describe the results from the OakPick program is "improving." I am starting to see signs that the statistical fluctuations may start in the other direction. Here are the results from the last weekend of racing.

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Thursday, February 8 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Ever Special (Win)
• 3 - Lady Margaret (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Endless Bloom (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 6 - Belle Supreme (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Lighten Up Frances (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Mizzencat (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 1 - Miss Barham (Also Ran)
• 6 - Roxy Rocket (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Dixie Flyer (Show)
• 4th Race 
• 1 - Like a Haint (SCRATCH) 
• 5 - Erratic Behavior (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Rhodium (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 6 - Andreas (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Heavy Roller (Also Ran) 
• 5 - After Party (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 7 - She Has Risen (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Graceland (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Ettalusive (Place)
• 7th Race 
• 8 - Fighting for Grace (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Shakedown (Win) 
• 3 - My Macho Mon (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 3 - Rockshaw (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Warrior's Club (Win) 
• 4 - Purely Given (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 6 - Shocking Blue (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Trinity Bling (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Ninth Hour (Win)

Summary for Thursday, February 8 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 7 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 4 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 15 Days 
• $248.00 (124 Races, 11 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 8 (6.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $103.20
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$144.80

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 15 Days 
• $700.00 (135 Races, $810 - $110 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 8 (5.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$399.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Friday, February 9 (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 8 - Union Salute (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Mud Light (Also Ran)
• 1 - Sophisticatedbling (Place)
• 2nd Race 
• 9 - Texas Sky (Also Ran) 
• 2 - K L S Forty Three (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Bluebird Ridge (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 4 - Ain't Misbehavin (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Chongo (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Cash Money Always (Show)
• 4th Race 
• 3 - Okie Copper Bandit (Also Ran) 
• 5 - South Beach (Win) 
• 7 - Florida Boys (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Thunderupalley (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Oliver G  (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Midnight's Fantasy (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 10 - Reversaloffortune (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Deflater (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Strolling (SCRATCH)
• 7th Race 
• 8 - Bodie Tap (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Twist Off (Place) 
• 4 - Tenfold (Win) 
• 4/5 Exacta: $34.50
• 8th Race 
• 7 - Stormy Pacific (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Adens Dream (Show) 
• 8 - Spectacular Road (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 8 - Lucy's Revenge (Place) 
• 5 - Banjo Cat (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Desert Madam (Show)

Summary for Friday, February 9 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 16 Days 
• $266.00 (133 Races, 11 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 8 (6.0%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $103.20
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$162.80

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 16 Days 
• $692.00 (144 Races, $864 - $118 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 9 (6.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners
• $1,133.70
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$387.70

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Saturday, February 10 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Yeowzer (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Tiznow R J (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Moon Over Cuzco (Place)
• 2nd Race 
• 8 - Blu Blaze (Also Ran) 
• 5 - What's in the Box (SCRATCH) 
• 11 - Quietly Cuba (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 10 - Sugar Buzz (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Seismic Force (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Get That Box (SCRATCH)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Treble (Place) 
• 5 - La Key (Win) 
• 7 - Smart Emma (Also Ran) 
• 5/2 Exacta: $26.60
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Allthewrongreasons (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Drastic (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Shannon C  (Win)
• 6th Race 
• 5 - Black Bear (Place) 
• 8 - Ender (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Briar's Gold (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 9 - Titanium (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Impasse (Also Ran) 
• 2 - It's the Truth (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 4 - Grats Road (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Tyfosha (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Sassy Sienna (Place)
• 9th Race 
• 4 - Blueridge Traveler (Win) 
• 3 - Farley (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Bronze Age (Also Ran)

Summary for Saturday, February 10 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 23 OTB (4 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 17 Days 
• $280.00 (140 Races, 13 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 9 (6.4%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $110.80
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$169.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 17 Days 
• $784 (153 Races, $918 - $134 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 10 (6.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,160.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$376.30

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Sunday, February 11 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Drip Brew (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Launch Away (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Indian Trick (Show)
• 2nd Race 
• 3 - Magic Eraser (Also Ran) 
• 8 - What's in the Box (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Ava's Parker (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 6 - How's My Bud (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Mutajaded (Place) 
• 7 - Run for Charlie (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 7 - Tobrah (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Mystical Temple (Also Ran) 
• 12 - Raise a Ghost (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 8 - Malibu Wood (Win) 
• 5 - Blanket of Ice (Show) 
• 2 - Husky Clipper (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 6 - Royal Road (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Roll On Indy (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Princessof the Nyl (Show)
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Take Charge Dude (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Drc All Inclusive (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Best of Greeley (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 6 - Malibu Max (Show) 
• 4 - Snickerboxer (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Got Even (Win)
• 9th Race 
• 11 - Daddy's Gone (Show) 
• 4- Joan's Delight (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Spotitude (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, February 11 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 18 Days 
• $298.00 (149 Races, 13 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 10 (6.7%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $122.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$175.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 18 Days 
• $834 (162 Races, $972 - $138 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 10 (6.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,160.30
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$326.30

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

That wraps up the second week of February in Hot Springs.We will have 5 days of racing over the Presidents' Day weekend with a couple of graded stakes races happening at Oaklawn. The Southwest Stakes will give us a look at some of the top 3 year-olds trying to win their way into the Kentucky Derby.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 11, 2018

Here is the February 11, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Drip Brew 
• 4 - Launch Away 
• 5 - Indian Trick
• 2nd Race
• 3 - Magic Eraser 
• 8 - What's in the Box 
• 4 - Ava's Parker
• 3rd Race
• 6 - How's My Bud 
• 1 - Mutajaded 
• 7 - Run for Charlie
• 4th Race
• 7 - Tobrah 
• 1 - Mystical Temple 
• 12 - Raise a Ghost
• 5th Race
• 8 - Malibu Wood 
• 5 - Blanket of Ice 
• 2 - Husky Clipper
• 6th Race
• 6 - Royal Road 
• 3 - Roll On Indy 
• 9 - Princessof the Nyl
• 7th Race
• 5 - Take Charge Dude 
• 1 - Drc All Inclusive 
• 6 - Best of Greeley
• 8th Race
• 6 - Malibu Max 
• 4 - Snickerboxer
• 7 - Got Even
• 9th Race
• 11 - Daddy's Gone 
• 4 - Joan's Delight 
• 10 - Spotitude

For February 11, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000203 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000015391
• P(7 win) = 0.00000516396
• P(6 win) = 0.00010039548 
• P(5 win) = 0.00124637535 
• P(4 win) = 0.01024682707 
• P(3 win) = 0.05578914474 
• P(2 win) = 0.19397857832 
• P(1 win) = 0.39086407311 
• P(0 win) = 0.34776928604

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.65223071396 
• At least 2 win = 0.26136664085 
• At least 3 win = 0.06738806253 
• At least 4 win = 0.01159891778 
• At least 5 win = 0.00135209071 
• At least 6 win = 0.00010571537 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000531989 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000015593 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000203

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. Look for the weekend summary early next week.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 10, 2018

Here is the February 10, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick software . The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.   

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Yeowzer 
• 6 - Tiznow 
• 5 - Moon Over Cuzco
• 2nd Race
• 8 - Blu Blaze 
• 5 - What's in the Box 
• 11 - Quietly Cuba
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Sugar Buzz 
• 2 - Seismic Force  
• 4 - Get That Box
• 4th Race
• 2 - Treble 
• 5 - La Key 
• 7 - Smart Emma
• 5th Race
• 7 - Allthewrongreasons 
• 2 - Drastic 
• 9 - Shannon C
• 6th Race
• 5 - Black Bear
• 8 - Ender 
• 4 - Briar's Gold
• 7th Race
• 9 - Titanium
• 6 - Impasse 
• 2 - It's the Truth
• 8th Race
• 4 - Grats Road 
• 6 - Tyfosha 
• 2 - Sassy Sienna
• 9th Race
• 4 - Blueridge Traveler 
• 3 - Farley 
• 6 - Bronze Age

For February 10, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000191 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000014480 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000487159 
• P(6 win) = 0.00009521414 
• P(5 win) = 0.00119105891 
• P(4 win) = 0.00988609206 
• P(3 win) = 0.05442632030 
• P(2 win) = 0.19155185185 
• P(1 win) = 0.39084444444 
• P(0 win) = 0.35200000000

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.64800000000 
• At least 2 win = 0.25715555556 
• At least 3 win = 0.06560370370 
• At least 4 win = 0.01117738340 
• At least 5 win = 0.00129129134 
• At least 6 win = 0.00010023243 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000501829 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000014670 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000191

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. The summary of the weekend of racing will come out early next week.

Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet for February 9, 2018

Friday is the first day of a big weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs. Here is the tip sheet for generated by my OakPick software. I am looking a turn around for the program this weekend. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 8 - Union Salute 
• 3 - Mud Light 
• 1 - Sophisticatedbling 
• 2nd Race 
• 9 - Texas Sky
• 2 - K L S Forty Three 
• 8 - Bluebird Ridge 
• 3rd Race 
• 4 - Ain't Misbehavin 
• 7 - Chongo 
• 8 - Cash Money Always 
• 4th Race 
• 3 - Okie Copper Bandit 
• 5 - South Beach 
• 7 - Florida Boys 
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Thunderupalley 
• 1 - Oliver G  
• 2 - Midnight's Fantasy 
• 6th Race 
• 10 - Reversaloffortune 
• 11 - Deflater 
• 5 - Strolling 
• 7th Race 
• 8 - Bodie Tap 
• 5 - Twist Off 
• 4 - Tenfold 
• 8th Race 
• 7 - Stormy Pacific 
• 1 - Adens Dream
• 8 - Spectacular Road 
• 9th Race 
• 8 - Lucy's Revenge 
• 5 - Banjo Cat 
• 10 - Desert Madam

For February 9, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000148 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000011514 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000397966 
• P(6 win) = 0.00008000353 
• P(5 win) = 0.00103090122 
• P(4 win) = 0.00883025329 
• P(3 win) = 0.05027908977 
• P(2 win) = 0.18351684635 
• P(1 win) = 0.38962955405 
• P(0 win) = 0.36662925552

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.63337074448 
• At least 2 win = 0.24374119043 
• At least 3 win = 0.06022434408 
• At least 4 win = 0.00994525431 
• At least 5 win = 0.00111500102 
• At least 6 win = 0.00008409980 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000409627 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000011661 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000148

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 8, 2018

Live horse racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs continues on Thursday afternoon. Here is the February 8, 2018 tip sheet generated by the OakPick software . The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. Early next week, I will have a post summarizing the results of the predictions grouped with the other days of racing this weekend.

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Ever Special 
• 3 - Lady Margaret 
• 5 - Endless Bloom
• 2nd Race
• 6 - Belle Supreme
  9 - Lighten Up Frances
  3 - Mizzencat
• 3rd Race
• 1 - Miss Barham 
• 6 - Roxy Rocket 
• 3 - Dixie Flyer
• 4th Race
• 1 - Like a Haint 
• 5 - Erratic Behavior 
• 3 - Rhodium
• 5th Race
• 6 - Andreas 
• 4 - Heavy Roller 
• 5 - After Party
• 6th Race
• 7 - She Has Risen
• 5 - Graceland 
• 2 - Ettalusive
• 7th Race
• 8 - Fighting for Grace 
• 1 - Shakedown 
• 3 - My Macho Mon
• 8th Race
• 3 - Rockshaw
• 2 - Warrior's Club 
• 4 - Purely Given
• 9th Race
• 6 - Shocking Blue 
• 2 - Trinity Bling 
• 11 - Ninth Hour

For February 8, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000331
• P(8 win) = 0.00000023528
• P(7 win) = 0.00000738640
• P(6 win) = 0.00013459543
• P(5 win) = 0.00156899764
• P(4 win) = 0.01213528107
• P(3 win) = 0.06228115857
• P(2 win) = 0.20454503038
• P(1 win) = 0.39010920492
• P(0 win) = 0.32921810700

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.67078189300
• At least 2 win = 0.28067268808
• At least 3 win = 0.07612765770
• At least 4 win = 0.01384649913
• At least 5 win = 0.00171121806
• At least 6 win = 0.00014222042
• At least 7 win = 0.00000762499
• At least 8 win = 0.00000023859
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000331

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

February 1-4 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

No need to prolong the discussion. Let's just jump right into the hot garbage that the OakPick program produced this last weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs...

 ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Thursday, February 1 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Pastiche (Show) 
• 8 - Woodhaven Diva (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Herald Square (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Well Mannered (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Senor Grits (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Obvious One (Show) 
• 3rd Race 
• 8 - Summer King (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Roberto Gato (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Conquest Hiosilver (Win) 
• 4th Race 
• 5 - Samurai Mike (Also Ran) 
• 0 - The Psychic (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Electric Avenue (Win) 
• 5th Race 
• 7 - With Every Hope (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Alittlecomplicated (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Cotton Club Cutie (Also Ran) 
• 6th Race 
• 8 - Big Axe (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Coco Honey (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Awesome Day (Place) 
• 7th Race 
• 1 - Onion Creek (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Eskimo Kisses (Win) 
• 3 - Miss Darley (Show) 
• 8th Race 
• 10 - True Loyalty (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Plainsman (Place) 
• 7 - Dream Baby Dream (Show) 
• 9th Race 
• 6 - Silverado Road  (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Perfectmperfection (Also Ran) 
• 12 - Coach Avery (Also Ran)

Summary for Thursday, February 1 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 9 out of 27 OTB (0 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 11 Days 
• $178.00 (89 Races, 10 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 5 (5.6%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $81.00 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$97.00

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 11 Days 
• $502.00 (99 Races, $594 - $92 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 8 (8.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$597.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Friday, (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Haus (Also Ran) 
• 12 - Gallopingguinness (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Alithia (Win) 
• 2nd Race 
• 6 - Dan the Tin Man (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Handful of Stripes (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Richie the Bull (Show)
• 3rd Race 
• 10 - Zonly (Also Ran) 
• 11 - She's Undawnted (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Blushing Bella (Place)
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Ghost Jumper (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Run Juja Run (SCRATCH) 
• 8 - Delightful Joanna (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 4 - Port Aggregate (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Sword of David (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Supreme Commander (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 1/1A - Undivided / Charmin Dixie (Show) 
• 4 - Caramel Cream  (Also Ran)
• 2 - Nucla (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 1 - Zombo (Win) 
• 6 - Dark Helmet (Also Ran) 
• 10 - He's Foxworthy (Also Ran) 
• 8th Race 
• 8 - Upset Brewing (Show) 
• 1 - Bo Peep (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Foxy Mischief (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 12 - Savedbyanangel (Also Ran) 
• 8 - She's too Cool (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Markaiah (Also Ran)

Summary for Friday, February 2 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 6 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 12 Days 
• $196.00 (98 Races, 10 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 6 (6.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $94.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$101.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 12 Days 
• $554.00 (108 Races, $648 - $94 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 8 (7.4%) 
• Total Return on Winners
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$545.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Saturday, February 3 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Party Pants (Place) 
• 5 - Sing Prada Sing (Show) 
• 4 - Hot and Ready (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Rock Star Status (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Top Player (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Swordfish (Show)
• 3rd Race 
• 8 - Jerrid (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Shotgun Kowboy (Win) 
• 5 - Allidoisdreamofyou (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Here Comes Kyle (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Swither's Shortcut (SCRATCH)
• 1 - Limation (Show)
• 5th Race 
• 10 - The Rouge Diesel (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Colony Strike (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Glitnir (Place)
• 6th Race 
• 10 - Just Fred (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Oliver's Bull (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Big Headed Jerry (Also Ran)
• 7th Race
• 6 - Rocking the Boat (Place) 
• 3 - Wild Caramelo (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Blame Will (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 6 - Royal Squeeze (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Prime Engine (Also Ran) 
• 4 - St. Joe Bay (Also Ran)
• 9th Race
• 10 - Mitole (Win) 
• 4 - Leinster (Show)
• 8 - Eisenstaedt (Also Ran) 

Summary for Saturday, February 3 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 9 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 2 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 13 Days 
• $214.00 (107 Races, 10 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 7 (6.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $97.40 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$116.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 13 Days 
• $600.00 (117 Races, $702 - $102 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 8 (6.8%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• +$499.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Sunday,  (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Eye On Harper (Place) 
• 5 - Miss Azul (Also Ran)
• 7 - Roan Feathers (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 5 - Brahmie (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Chiroc (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Sattersfield (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Chocolateicecream (Show) 
• 7 - Cass in Stone (Place) 
• 4 - Sports Reporter (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Make It Work (Also Ran) 
• 1/1A - John Allen (Show) / Bo Tee (Place) 
• 7 - Artesia Wells (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 4 - Greeleys Charm (Place) 
• 3 - Chocolate Wildcat (SCRATCH) 
• 5 - Hubert Junior (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 2 - Indian Gem  (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Liam's World (Show) 
• 1/1A - Donita's Ruler (Win) / Queen Kate (SCRATCH)
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Queens Day Victory (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Buskinfoalivin (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Traci's Greeley (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 4 - Cara Blythe (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Vilaro (Show) 
• 5 - Avisionofchocolate (Also Ran)
• 9th Race
• 3 - The Checotah Kid (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Detroit Cowboy (Place) 
• 9 - Hank's Alibi (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, February 4 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 9 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 1 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 14 Days 
• 232.00 (116 Races, 10 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 7 (6.0%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $97.40 
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$134.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 14 Days 
• $650.00 (126 Races, $756 - $106 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 8 (6.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$449.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

That wraps up the first week of February in Hot Springs. I still believe that the OakPick program is due for a good weekend. Statistical fluctuations are easy to discuss until someone says that they got fluctuated out of $100. After almost 500 races the last 2 years, the Monte Carlo program is ~$30 below breakeven. That is likely better than you could do wagering on favorites at Oaklawn. Anyway, I will give it another go starting with Thursday's slate of races.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 4, 2018

We close out another week of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs on Sunday. Here is the February 4, 2018 tip sheet for generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Eye On Harper 
• 5 - Miss Azul 
• 7 - Roan Feathers 
• 2nd Race 
• 5 - Brahmie 
• 7 - Chiroc 
• 6 - Sattersfield 
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Chocolateicecream 
• 7 - Cass in Stone 
• 4 - Sports Reporter 
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Make It Work 
• 1/1A - John Allen / Bo Tee 
• 7 - Artesia Wells 
• 5th Race 
• 4 - Greeleys Charm 
• 3 - Chocolate Wildcat 
• 5 - Hubert Junior 
• 6th Race 
• 2 - Indian Gem 
• 6 - Liam's World 
• 1/1A - Donita's Ruler / Queen Kate 
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Queens Day Victory 
• 10 - Buskinfoalivin 
• 9 - Traci's Greeley 
• 8th Race 
• 4 - Cara Blythe 
• 6 - Vilaro 
• 5 - Avisionofchocolate 
• 9th Race 
• 3 - The Checotah Kid 
• 6 - Detroit Cowboy 
• 9 - Hank's Alibi

For February 4, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000168 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000013085 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000450435 
• P(6 win) = 0.00008979503 
• P(5 win) = 0.00114226710 
• P(4 win) = 0.00961414810 
• P(3 win) = 0.05353462714 
• P(2 win) = 0.19015786653 
• P(1 win) = 0.39096447173 
• P(0 win) = 0.35449218750

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.64550781250 
• At least 2 win = 0.25454334077 
• At least 3 win = 0.06438547424 
• At least 4 win = 0.01085084711 
• At least 5 win = 0.00123669901 
• At least 6 win = 0.00009443191 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000463688 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000013253 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000168

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will post a summary of the full week of racing early in the week.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 3, 2018

Here is the February 3, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Party Pants 
• 5 - Sing Prada Sing 
• 4 - Hot and Ready
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Rock Star Status 
• 4 - Top Player 
• 6 - Swordfish
• 3rd Race
• 8 - Jerrid 
• 1 - Shotgun Kowboy 
• 5 - Allidoisdreamofyou
• 4th Race
• 2 - Here Comes Kyle 
• 7 - Swither's Shortcut 
• 1 - Limation
• 5th Race
• 10 - The Rouge Diesel 
• 7 - Colony Strike 
• 2 - Glitnir
• 6th Race
• 10 - Just Fred 
• 9 - Oliver's Bull 
• 3 - Big Headed Jerry
• 7th Race
• 6 - Rocking the Boat 
• 3 - Wild Caramelo 
• 10 - Blame Will
• 8th Race
• 6 - Royal Squeeze 
• 5 - Prime Engine 
• 4 - St. Joe Bay
• 9th Race
• 10 - Mitole 
• 4 - Leinster 
• 8 - Eisenstaedt

For February 3, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000082 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006848 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000254922 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005519262 
• P(5 win) = 0.00076582832 
• P(4 win) = 0.00706162868 
• P(3 win) = 0.04326644626 
• P(2 win) = 0.16983388736 
• P(1 win) = 0.38750161415 
• P(0 win) = 0.39151278409

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.60848721591 
• At least 2 win = 0.22098560176 
• At least 3 win = 0.05115171439 
• At least 4 win = 0.00788526813 
• At least 5 win = 0.00082363945 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005781113 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000261851 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000006929 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000082

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 2, 2018

Here is the February 2, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Haus 
• 12 - Gallopingguinness 
• 11 - Alithia
• 2nd Race
• 6 - Dan the Tin Man 
• 5 - Handful of Stripes 
• 7 - Richie the Bull
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Zonly 
• 11 - She's Undawnted 
• 2 - Blushing Bella
• 4th Race
• 10 - Ghost Jumper 
• 4 - Run Juja Run 
• 8 - Delightful Joanna
• 5th Race
• 4 - Port Aggregate 
• 3 - Sword of David 
• 8 - Supreme Commander
• 6th Race
• 1/1A - Undivided / Charmin Dixie 
• 4 - Caramel Cream 
• 2 - Nucla
• 7th Race
• 1 - Zombo 
• 6 - Dark Helmet 
• 10 - He's Foxworthy
• 8th Race
• 8 - Upset Brewing 
• 1 - Bo Peep 
• 5 - Foxy Mischief
• 9th Race
• 12 - Savedbyanangel 
• 8 - She's too Cool 
• 10 - Markaiah

For February 2, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000096 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000007942 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000291553 
• P(6 win) = 0.00006212166 
• P(5 win) = 0.00084646995 
• P(4 win) = 0.00764761633 
• P(3 win) = 0.04580284135 
• P(2 win) = 0.17531455245 
• P(1 win) = 0.38904736070 
• P(0 win) = 0.38127604167

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.61872395833 
• At least 2 win = 0.22967659764 
• At least 3 win = 0.05436204519 
• At least 4 win = 0.00855920384 
• At least 5 win = 0.00091158751 
• At least 6 win = 0.00006511756 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000299590 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000008038 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000096
  

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.