Oaklawn Park Selections for February 15, 2018

This Thursday kicks off a big weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs. Several stakes races highlight the action on Saturday and Monday. Here is the tip sheet for Thursday, February 15 generated by my OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 5 - Strike Perfection 
• 2 - Frigidish 
• 8 - Caramel Cream
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Gallopingguinness 
• 8 - Ain'tseentheball 
• 11 - Shiny Armor
• 3rd Race
• 2 - Dorothe Marie 
• 4 - Sweet Abigail 
• 5 - Bella Vaquera
• 4th Race
• 7 - Kentucky Brown 
• 1 - Seattle Firm 
• 6 - Cash Tiz Wonderful
• 5th Race
• 10 - Jean's Beauty 
• 4 - Roada Wish 
• 8 - Florida Bird
• 6th Race
• 8 - Awesome Day 
• 1 - Angelo's Ashes 
• 6 - Moolamiss
• 7th Race
• 5 - Special Concoction 
• 7 - Warcraft 
• 11 - Flying Mr K.
• 8th Race
• 2 - Promising Shoes 
• 3 - J P of Galilee 
• 4 - Light Bound Bid
• 9th Race
• 1 - Tarpys Zip 
• 5 - Last Young Thing 
• 6 - War Or Peace

For February 15, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000083 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006975 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000259477 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005610676 
• P(5 win) = 0.00077701783 
• P(4 win) = 0.00714654236 
• P(3 win) = 0.04364826768 
• P(2 win) = 0.17069008225 
• P(1 win) = 0.38777769740 
• P(0 win) = 0.38990162037

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.61009837963 
• At least 2 win = 0.22232068223 
• At least 3 win = 0.05163059998 
• At least 4 win = 0.00798233230 
• At least 5 win = 0.00083578993 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005877210 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000266535 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000007058 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000083

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. A summary post after the full weekend of racing will be done early next week.