Saturday, January 20, 2018

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 21, 2018

Here is the January 21, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 6 - Oliver G 
    • 10 - Patriotic American 
    • 2 - Macanao
  • 2nd Race
    • 2 - Vyera
    • 11 - Sturn Donna
    • 1 - Bloom Baby
  • 3rd Race
    • 4 - Sugar Buzz 
    • 5 - Pistone Steel 
    • 3 - Sky Flight
  • 4th Race
    • 11 - Tempo Seeker
    • 2 - Classic Pursuit
    • 5 - Single Gem
  • 5th Race
    • 6 - Easter Indy 
    • 12 - Beautiful Honduras 
    • 11 - Mary Lou
  • 6th Race
    • 10 - Greyjoy 
    • 9 - Ms. D's Last Storm 
    • 1 - Transformative
  • 7th Race
    • 1 - Royal Edition 
    • 8 - Pryor 
    • 5 - Southsider
  • 8th Race
    • 6 - King Ptolemy 
    • 2 - P C Cowboy 
    • 7 - Pinson
  • 9th Race
    • 3 - Unprovoked 
    • 1 - Roll On Big Mama 
    • 5 - Mo Mo
For Sunday, January 21, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:
  • P(9 win) = 0.00000000089 
  • P(8 win) = 0.00000007351 
  • P(7 win) = 0.00000270487 
  • P(6 win) = 0.00005790757 
  • P(5 win) = 0.00079488860
  • P(4 win) = 0.00725502340 
  • P(3 win) = 0.04402691335 
  • P(2 win) = 0.17129121958 
  • P(1 win) = 0.38768237935 
  • P(0 win) = 0.38888888889
Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:
  • At least 1 win = 0.61111111111 
  • At least 2 win = 0.22342873176 
  • At least 3 win = 0.05213751219 
  • At least 4 win = 0.00811059883 
  • At least 5 win = 0.00085557543 
  • At least 6 win = 0.00006068683 
  • At least 7 win = 0.00000277927 
  • At least 8 win = 0.00000007440
  • At least 9 win = 0.00000000089
To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. Look for the results of the weekend's predictions early in the next week.

Friday, January 19, 2018

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 20, 2018

Racing was cancelled again for Friday, January 19 at Oaklawn Park. That makes the job of tallying results for the weekend that much easier. Here is the tip sheet for Saturday, January 20, 2018 for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 10 - McQ 
    • 2 - Special Concoction 
    • 4 - Top Player
  • 2nd Race
    • 10 - Ferocious Tiger 
    • 11 - Runningunninrascal 
    • 8 - My Curby
  • 3rd Race
    • 1 - Dupree 
    • 5 - State of Charm 
    • 9 - Bajan Cash
  • 4th Race
    • 8 - Diva of Disaster 
    • 5 - Queen of Wildwood 
    • 6 - Dorothe Marie
  • 5th Race
    • 2 - Grandpa's Dream 
    • 10 - Chris and Dave
    • 6 - Compagno
  • 6th Race
    • 4 - Snickerboxer 
    • 1 - Bold Conquest 
    • 5 - Pilot House
  • 7th Race
    • 6 - Blame Will 
    • 8 - Jazzy Times 
    • 11 - Mexico Memories
  • 8th Race
    • 1 - Getupbabygetup 
    • 6 - Amy's Challenge 
    • 5 - Mia Mischief
  • 9th Race
    • 5 - Deflater 
    • 10 - The Money Dance 
    • 4 - Plainsman
For January 20, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:
  • P(9 win) = 0.00000000058 
  • P(8 win) = 0.00000005103 
  • P(7 win) = 0.00000198851 
  • P(6 win) = 0.00004501957 
  • P(5 win) = 0.00065243055 
  • P(4 win) = 0.00627449539 
  • P(3 win) = 0.04002887522 
  • P(2 win) = 0.16328237271 
  • P(1 win) = 0.38624805568 
  • P(0 win) = 0.40346671076
Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:
  • At least 1 win = 0.59653328924 
  • At least 2 win = 0.21028523356 
  • At least 3 win = 0.04700286086 
  • At least 4 win = 0.00697398564 
  • At least 5 win = 0.00069949024 
  • At least 6 win = 0.00004705969 
  • At least 7 win = 0.00000204012 
  • At least 8 win = 0.00000005161 
  • At least 9 win = 0.00000000058
To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. The results of Saturday's races along with the Sunday results will be posted early next week.


Thursday, January 18, 2018

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 19, 2018

Today (January 18, 2018), Oaklawn Park cancelled the day of live racing because the track was frozen. Unlike some tracks around the country, Oaklawn does not use chemicals to thaw a frozen track. So, while the OakPick (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program) selections were loaded to go, I am not going to post them. Rather, here is the January 19, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by OakPick. As I always remind you, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race
    • 4 - Florida Bird
    • 5 - She's Undawnted
    • 6 - Shadynstella 
  • 2nd Race
    • 2 - Coco Honey
    • 6 - Super Bowl Girl
    • 5 - Ensign
  • 3rd Race
    • 4 - Captivated
    • 3 - To the King
    • 7 - Zapper Dan
  • 4th Race
    • 8 - K L S Forty Three
    • 10 - Bowman West
    • 3 - First Response
  • 5th Race
    • 9 - Tiz Funny
    • 7 - Speedy Dansmere
    • 3 - Drama Star
  • 6th Race
    •  7 - La Key
    • 3 - Five Star Factor
    • 5 - Talmadge Tap
  • 7th Race
    • 6 - Cheyenne Blues
    • 10 - Addy's Flowers
    • 2 - Zan Creek
  • 8th Race
    • 8 - Tap of War
    • 6 - Angelo's Ashes
    • 2 - Bella Verde
  • 9th Race
    • 7 - Classic Bo
    • 9 - Holiday's Angel
    • 1 - Girl Power
In the future, the section below the picks will be used to display the probability of selecting a given number of winners from the top selection based on the assumed number of starters (that is, based on the entries before any horse is announced as a Scratch). For January 19, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:
  • P(9 win) = 0.00000000120
  • P(8 win) = 0.00000009688
  • P(7 win) = 0.00000346739
  • P(6 win) = 0.00007195642
  • P(5 win) = 0.00095404420
  • P(4 win) = 0.00837973464
  • P(3 win) = 0.04875258278
  • P(2 win) = 0.18114480735
  • P(1 win) = 0.39000826863
  • P(0 win) = 0.37068504051
Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:
  • At least 1 win = 0.62931495949
  • At least 2 win = 0.23930669086
  • At least 3 win = 0.05816188351
  • At least 4 win = 0.00940930073
  • At least 5 win = 0.00102956609
  • At least 6 win = 0.00007552189
  • At least 7 win = 0.00000356547
  • At least 8 win = 0.00000009808
  • At least 9 win = 0.00000000120
To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

January 12-15, 2018 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

Abysmal: That is the only word that could begin to describe the results of the OakPick Monte Carlo program after this last weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park. The $2 Win strategy on the top selection finished with a $46.20 loss over 31 races. The program picked just 2 winners for the opening weekend and produced the worst performance for a single weekend to date. It is my belief that this weekend is a statistical aberration based solely on the win probabilities - that is, statistically, I should have seen at least 2 to 4 more winners than I did. In any case, below are the poor results from the weekend.

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
Friday, March 30 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).
  • Race 1
    • 10 - Chubble Maker [Also Ran]
    • 6 - The Last Prophet[Also Ran]
    • 12 - Roberto Gato [Also Ran]
  • Race 2
    • 5 - Mighty Oaks Magic [Also Ran]
    • 4 - You're Killin Me [Place]
      • $5.20  $3.40
    • 9 - War Or Peace [Also Ran]
  • 3rd Race
    • 3 - Like a Haint [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Queen Kate [Show]
      • $4.80
    • 4 - Liam's World [Place]
      • $3.80  $2.80
  • 4th Race
    • 1 - Small Town Hero [Show]
      • $13.40
    • 7 - Big Headed Jerry [Also Ran]
    • 12 - Excessive [Also Ran]
  • 5th Race
    • 6 - Swing and Sway [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Street Biz [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Thoughtless [Place]
      • $7.40  $4.60
  • 6th Race
    • 6 - Burgameister [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Harangue [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Mighty Manfred [SCRATCH]
  • 7th Race
    • 9 - Shanghai Tariff [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Party Club [Show]
      • $4.00
    • 12 - Traci's Greeley [Also Ran]
  • 8th Race
    • 1 - Far Right [Show]
      • $13.60
    • 7 - Royal Squeeze [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Dan the Go to Man [Also Ran]
  • 9th Race
    • 8 - Japedo  [Also Ran]
    • 12 - Hamazing Vision [Place]
      • $5.80  $3.20
    • 7 - Blu Blaze [SCRATCH]
Summary for Friday, January at Oaklawn: 0 Winners, 0 Exacta,  8 of 25 OTB (2 scratch), $72.00

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 1 Days
    • $18.00 (9 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 0 (0.0%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $0.00
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$18.00
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
 Saturday, January, 13 results (The original Oaklawn Park selections/tip sheet can seen here.)
  • 1st Race 
    • 6 - Nobadeer [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Serious Talk [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Macanao [Also Ran]
  • 2nd Race
    • 2 - Spider's Alibi [Also Ran]
    • 1/1A - Match Up / Vanderbilt Beach [Also Ran]
    • 9 - More On Tap [Also Ran]
  • 3rd Race
    • 5 - Oso Ready [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Gotta Curlin [Show]
      • $5.00
    • 7 - Entertainer [Also Ran]
  • 4th Race
    • 1 - Or Sunday [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Dion [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Silverdollardreams [Also Ran]
  • 5th Race
    • 2 - Papa Caliente [SCRATCH]
    • 5 - Dream Baby Dream [Show]
      • $2.80
    • 6 - Schoenhardt [Also Ran]
  • 6th Race
    • 5 - Glitnir [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Colony Strike [Place]
      • $21.00  $8.80
    • 6 - Indy Awesome [Show]
      • $3.00
  • 7th Race
    • 1 - Higher Power [Win]
      • $11.80  $4.20  $3.20
    • 2 - Lone Rock [Also Ran]
    • 3 - True Loyalty [Also Ran]
  • 8th Race
    • 11 - Someday Soon [SCRATCH]
    • 8 - Ever So Clever [Place]
      • $4.80  $3.20
    • 2 - Farrell [Win]
      • $6.20  $3.60  $3.20
  • 9th Race
    • 3 - Greeley Can Win [SCRATCH]
    • 2 - Pryor [SCRATCH]
    • 9 - D'oros Ruler [Also Ran]
Summary for Saturday, January 13, at Oaklawn: 1 Winner, 1 Exacta, 7 of 24 OTB (4 scratch), $98.90

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 2 Days
    • $30.00 (15 Races, 3 Scratches on Top Pick)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 1 (6.7%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $11.80
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$18.20
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Sunday, January 14 results (The original picks for Oaklawn Park are here.)
  • 1st Race
    • 4 - Emerald Candy [SCRATCH]
    • 9 - Samurai's Prize [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Riva Belle [Also Ran]
  • 2nd Race
    • 1 - Arrogant [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Bud's Mr. B [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Sarah's Swingtown [Also Ran]
  • 3rd Race
    • 3 - Triple Kapalua [Show]
      • $3.40
    • 1 - La Fee Verte [Also Ran]
    • 4 - La Dame Blanche [Also Ran]
  • 4th Race
    • 7 - Zella Rose [Show]
      • $3.60
    • 3 - Buch of Daisies [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Baetykaty [Place] 
      • $2.40  $2.20
  • 5th Race
    • 11 - What's in the Box [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Coach Nar [Show]
      • $7.20
    • 2 - Rick's Stryker [Also Ran]
  • 6th Race
    • 4 - Handsome Traveler [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Infinity Squared [Win]
      • $10.60  $6.80  $5.20
    • 3 - Grade One [Place]
      • $7.40  $5.00
  • 7th Race
    • 6 - Warrior's Club [Show]
      • $3.40
    • 1 - Big Squeeze [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Broken Promise [Also Ran]
  • 8th Race
    • 6 - Apprehender [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Constantino [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Recount [Show]
      • $8.80
  • 9th Race 
    • 1 - Make Daddy Proud [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Golden Cat Tale [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Two Step Dancer [Also Ran]
Summary for Sunday, January 14 at Oaklawn: 0 Winners, 1 Exacta, 8 of 26 OTB (1 scratch), $117.10

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 3 Days
    • $46.00 (23 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 1 (4.3%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $11.80
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$34.20
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Monday, January 15 results (Check out the original picks for Oaklawn Park here.)
  • 1st Race
    • 1 - Minister Nick [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Pharme Phlash [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Bye Crazy Eyes [Show]
      • $4.60
  • 2nd Race
    • 8 - Georgia's Reward [Win]
      • $4.00  $3.00  $2.60
    • 5 - Bella My Girl [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Primary First [Also Ran]
  • 3rd Race
    • 11 - Cascabria [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Darion's Dream [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Moolamiss [Also Ran]
  • 4th Race 
    • 4 - Double Deep [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Brouillard [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Coach Adams [Win]
      • $25.40  $11.00  $5.20 
  • 5th Race
    • 11 - Twist Off [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Song of the Nile [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Mojo Man [Also Ran]
  • 6th Race
    • 6 - He's So Zazzy [Also Ran]
    • 3 - El Bonito [SCRATCH]
    • 5 - Hey Bro [Also Ran]
  • 7th Race
    • 11 - Glamorized [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Sassy Sienna [Win]
      • $3.80  $3.20  $2.60
    • 2 - Sydney Freeman [Also Ran]
  • 8th Race 
    • 2 - Lone Rock [SCRATCH]
    • 6 - Navistar [SCRATCH]
    • 1 - Combatant [Place]
      • $2.40
  • 9th Race
    • 9 - Event of Default [Also Ran]
    • 1 - Mercer Slough  [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Secret Trick [Place]
      • $10.00  $7.20
Summary for Monday, January 15 at Oaklawn: 1 Winners, 0 Exacta, 6 of 24 OTB (3 scratch), $85.00

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 4 Days
    • $62.00 (31 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 2 (6.5%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $15.80
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$46.20
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
Well, that's a wrap for last week's racing. Check back here on Thursday morning for the beginning of a new week of picks by the OakPick Monte Carlo program. Hopefully, the program will return to last year's winning ways soon. The first week of a new meet is always rough on handicappers.

Sunday, January 14, 2018

January 15, 2018 Oaklawn Park Selections

Here is the January 15, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 1 - Minister Nick
    • 4 - Pharme Phlash
    • 7 - Bye Crazy Eyes
  • 2nd Race
    • 8 - Georgia's Reward
    • 5 - Bella My Girl
    • 6 - Primary First
  • 3rd Race
    • 11 - Cascabria
    • 2 - Darion's Dream
    • 4 - Moolamiss
  • 4th Race
    • 4 - Double Deep
    • 6 - Brouillard
    • 9 - Coach Adams
  • 5th Race
    • 11 - Twist Off
    • 7 - Song of the Nile
    • 5 - Mojo Man
  • 6th Race
    • 6 - He's So Zazzy 
    • 3 - El Bonito
    • 5 - Hey Bro
  • 7th Race
    • 11 - Glamorized
    • 7 - Sassy Sienna
    • 2 - Sydney Freeman
  • 8th Race
    • 2 - Lone Rock
    • 6 - Navistar
    • 1 - Combatant
  • 9th Race
    • 9 - Event of Default
    • 1 - Mercer Slough
    • 11 - Secret Trick

The results of these picks along with the results of other picks from the week of racing will be posted together early next week. I will start the $2 Win on the Top Selection "What If" game that I used for tracking during the 2017 season. I will also consider other "What If" wagering strategy games as well.  Good luck!

Saturday, January 13, 2018

January 14, 2018 Oaklawn Park Selections


The first Sunday of the 2018 season at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs will be a cold one. The January 14, 2018 Oaklawn Park tip sheet generated by my proprietary Monte Carlo computer algorithm is found below. As always, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 4 - Emerald Candy
    • 9 - Samurai's Prize
    • 5 - Riva Belle
  • 2nd Race
    • 1/1A - Arrogant / Runarounddancing
    • 8 - Bud's Mr. B
    • 7 - Sarah's Swingtown
  • 3rd Race
    • 3 - Triple Kapalua
    • 1 - La Fee Verte 
    • 4 - La Dame Blanche
  • 4th Race
    • 7 - Zella Rose
    • 3 - Buch of Daisies
    • 2 - Baetykaty
  • 5th Race
    • 11 - What's in the Box
    • 5 - Coach Nar
    • 2 - Rick's Stryker
  • 6th Race
    • 4 - Handsome Traveler
    • 10 - Infinity Squared
    • 3 - Grade One
  • 7th Race
    • 6 - Warrior's Club
    • 1 - Big Squeeze
    • 2 - Broken Promise
  • 8th Race
    • 6 - Apprehender
    • 4 - Constantino
    • 2 - Recount
  • 9th Race
    • 1 - Make Daddy Proud
    • 7 - Golden Cat Tale
    • 9 - Two Step Dancer
The results of these picks along with the results of other picks from the week of racing will be posted together early next week. I will start the $2 Win on the Top Selection "What If" game that I used for tracking during the 2017 season. I will also consider other "What If" wagering strategy games as well.  Good luck!

Friday, January 12, 2018

January 13, 2018 Oaklawn Park Selections

The January 13, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs is found below. The tip sheet is generated by a Monte Carlo algorithm that weights all racing factors including the size of the field. The predictions from my OakPick program are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 6 - Nobadeer 
    • 9 - Serious Talk 
    • 8 - Macanao
  • 2nd Race
    • 2 - Spider's Alibi
    • 1/1A - Match Up / Vanderbilt Beach
    • 9 - More On Tap
  • 3rd Race
    • 5 - Oso Ready
    • 8 - Gotta Curlin
    • 7 - Entertainer
  • 4th Race
    • 1 - Or Sunday
    • 9 - Dion
    • 4 - Silverdollardreams
  • 5th Race
    • 2 - Papa Caliente 
    • 5 - Dream Baby Dream
    • 6 - Schoenhardt
  • 6th Race
    • 5 - Glitnir
    • 4 - Colony Strike
    • 6 - Indy Awesome
  • 7th Race
    • 1 - Higher Power 
    • 2 - Lone Rock 
    • 3 - True Loyalty
  • 8th Race
    • 11 - Someday Soon
    • 8 - Ever So Clever
    • 2 - Farrell
  • 9th Race
    • 3 - Greeley Can Win
    • 2 - Pryor
    • 9 - D'oros Ruler
The results of these picks along with the results of other picks from the week of racing will be posted together early next week. I will start the $2 Win on the Top Selection "What If" game that I used for tracking during the 2017 season. I will also consider other "What If" wagering strategy games as well.

Have a great day of racing and good luck!

Thursday, January 11, 2018

January 12, 2018 Oaklawn Park Selections

The opening day of the 2018 racing season has arrived for Hot Springs's Oaklawn Park. Predicted cold weather and maybe some winter precipitation has the chance to put a damper on the crowds at the track. However, there will be some racing enthusiasts that have really missed live racing since Classic Empire ran away with the Arkansas Derby last April.

Here is the January 12, 2018 Oaklawn Park tip sheet generated by my proprietary Monte Carlo computer algorithm. This is the second season that I have used it for Oaklawn Park predictions. I am considering making some small changes to it, but the promising results from the first season of predictions (2017) are found here. As always, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

  • 1st Race 
    • 10 - Chubble Maker
    • 6 - The Last Prophet
    • 12 - Roberto Gato
  • 2nd Race
    • 5 - Mighty Oaks Magic
    • 4 - You're Killin Me
    • 9 - War Or Peace
  • 3rd Race
    • 3 - Like a Haint
    • 2 - Queen Kate
    • 4 - Liam's World
  • 4th Race
    • 1 - Small Town Hero
    • 7 - Big Headed Jerry
    • 12 - Excessive
  • 5th Race
    • 6 - Swing and Sway
    • 7 - Street Biz
    • 9 - Thoughtless
  • 6th Race
    • 6 - Burgameister
    • 8 - Harangue
    • 2 - Mighty Manfred
  • 7th Race
    • 9 - Shanghai Tariff
    • 5 - Party Club
    • 12 - Traci's Greeley
  • 8th Race
    • 1 - Far Right
    • 7 - Royal Squeeze
    • 4 - Dan the Go to Man
  • 9th Race
    • 8 - Japedo
    • 12 - Hamazing Vision
    • 7 - Blu Blaze
The results of these picks along with the results of other picks from the week of racing will be posted together early next week. I will start the $2 Win on the Top Selection "What If" game that I used for tracking during the 2017 season. I will also consider other "What If" wagering strategy games as well.  Good luck!

Monday, April 17, 2017

April 12-15 MC Algorithm Results from Oaklawn Park

The 2017 racing season ended at Oaklawn Park on Saturday with the running of the Arkansas Derby. Classic Empire ran away with the Grade I stakes and placed himself in the conversation about the race in Kentucky in about 3 weeks.

Below is a summary of the results from my Monte Carlo program for the week of the Racing Festival of the South. The first 2 days of the week were fantastic with positive returns on $2 win bets on each of the top selections (+$9.80 and +$28.80). However, the Friday results were abysmal - the worst day of the season for selections on the board with only 1 winner. The program selected only 1 outright winner again on Arkansas Derby day. So, for the week, the program finished with a profit of $1.80 over the 41 races. For the season (since February 17), the program was +$104.00 over the 336 races that were predicted. In the weeks that follow, I will provide some additional statistical information about the season that just ended at Oaklawn Park.

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
Wednesday, April 12 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).
  • Race 1
    • 6 - Paschal [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Justin Zee [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Don't Blame Dexter [Scratch]
  • Race 2
    • 4 - Dr. Clark [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Rojac [Place]
      • $5.20 $3.00
    • 2 - Choir Director [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 11 - Abboccato [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Forever Fara [Win]
      • $5.40 $3.60 $3.00
    • 5 - She's the Most [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 4 - Miss Mamacita [Also Ran]
    • 1 - Rose to Glory [Win]
      • $10.80 $5.60 $3.80
    • 6 - You Vow Me [Place]
      • $10.00 $7.40
    • Exotics
      • 1/6 $1.00 Exacta $45.70
  • Race 5
    • 7 - Silky Lady [Also Ran]
    • 8 - With Every Hope [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Boomtiderock [Place]
      • $5.00 $4.00
  • Race 6
    • 6 - Heat My Dust [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Enterprise Value [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Cara Blythe [Win]
      • $17.80 $8.00 $6.20
  • Race 7
    • 11 - Glacken's Ghost [Win]
      • $15.40 $6.60 $3.40
    • 12 - Jack Be Quick [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Daddy's Gone [Scratch]
  • Race 8
    • 3 - Misleading Lady [Win]
      • $12.40 $6.20 $4.20
    • 2 - Merilore [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Florida Bird [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 8 - Will Wants Candy [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Essie's Reward [Show]
      • $21.80
    • 1 - Sizzle Factor [Also Ran]
Summary for Wednesday, April 12 at Oaklawn: 5 Winners, 9 of 25 OTB (2 scratch), $214.50

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 33 Days
    • $608.00 (304 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 41 (13.5%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $720.00
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$112.00
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
Thursday, April 13 results (The original Oaklawn Park selections/tip sheet can seen here.)
  • Race 1
    • 12 - Diva of Disaster [Place]
      • $5.40 $3.60
    • 11 - Kauai Nana [Also Ran]
    • 2 - She's Undawnted [Also Ran]
  • Race 2
    • 11 - Discreet Charm [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Classic Arch [Place]
      • $12.00 $7.40
    • 4 - Sham's Shoes [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 8 - The Checotah Kid [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Wilbur (Scratch)
    • 2 - Gumshoe [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 1 - Whataclassylady [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Gingermore (Scratch)
    • 3 - Je Suis Belle [Also Ran]
  • Race 5
    • 5 - Daddy's Memory [Win]
      • $6.40 $4.00 $3.20
    • 7 - La Crema Rouge [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Golfin De An [Also Ran]
  • Race 6
    • 10 - Smart Emma [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Greely's Comet [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Asian's Way [Place]
      • $3.00 $2.20
  • Race 7
    • 7 - Reckling [Win] $7.20 $4.20 $3.40
    • 12 - Junket [Place] $5.20 $4.00
    • 2 - Seven Forty Seven (Scratch)
    • Exotics
      • 7/12 $1.00 Exacta: $15.80
  • Race 8
    • 4 - Anita Marie [Win]
      • $29.20 $10.40 $9.60
    • 2 - Divine Way [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Dorothe Marie [Also Ran]
  • Race 9 (Bachelor Stakes)
    • 8 - Smokin Now (Scratch)
    • 1 - Recruiting Ready [Win]
      • $6.00 $3.80 $3.60
    • 4 - Jagged Warrior [Also Ran]
    • Exotics
      • Pick 3 $0.50  7-4-1 $149.75
  • Race 1
    • 10 - Girl Link [Show]
      • $6.20
    • 7 - I'm the Reason [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Meadow Gem [Also Ran]
Summary for Thursday, April 13 at Oaklawn: 4 Winners, 9 of 26 OTB (4 scratches), $305.55

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 34 Days
    • $628.00 (314 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 45 (14.3%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $768.80
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$140.80

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Friday, April 14 results (The original picks for Oaklawn Park are here.)
  • Race 1
    • 4 - Britt's Vow [Also Ran]
    • 1 - Watch Out [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Delta Chance [Also Ran]
  • Race 2
    • 12 - Luv Bandit [Place]
      • $4.60 $3.20
    • 9 - Anmaat [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Oliver's Bull [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 2 - Our Addi Belle (Scratch)
    • 10 - New Lucky Penny [Also Ran]
    • 1A - Stellastellastella [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 11 - Glorious Summer [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Brother J. R. [Also Ran]
    • 3 - First Response [Place]
      • $4.40 $3.00
  • Race 5
    • 5 - Summer Tiger [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Condominium [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Conquest Hiosilver [Also Ran]
  • Race 6
    • 12 - Solve [Also Ran]
    • 1 - Malibu Max [Show]
      • $3.80
    • 3 - King Ptolemy [Also Ran]
  • Race 7
    • 9 - Providence [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Fire Blaster [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Mono (Scratch)
  • Race 8
    • 8 - Conquest Bandido [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Dutch Parrot [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Conquest Slayer [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 3 - Stellar Wind [Win]
      • $2.80 $2.20 $2.10
    • 4 - Divine Elegance [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Durango [Also Ran]
  • Race 10
    • 3 - Nelson's El Camino (Scratch)
    • 2 - California Coast [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Doctor Peter [Also Ran]
Summary for Friday, April 14 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner, 4 of 27 OTB (3 scratches), $26.10

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 35 Days
    • $648.00 (324 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 46 (14.2%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $771.60
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$123.60
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Saturday, April 15 results (Check out the original picks for Oaklawn Park here.)
    • Race 1
      • 4 - Skip the Pinot [Also Ran]
      • 10 - Will Munnings [Also Ran]
      • 2 - Heat Road [Also Ran]
    • Race 2
      • 6 - O T B Bob [Show]
        • $7.20
      • 12 - Roma Road [Also Ran]
      • 10 - High Dollar Kitten [Also Ran]
    • Race 3
      • 8 - Leofric [Win]
        • $4.40 $3.40 $2.40
      • 2 - Fire Starter (Scratch)
      • 6 - Mishegas [Show]
        • $2.60
    • Race 4
      • 4 - Net Gain [Also Ran]
      • 9 - Abbaa [Win]
        • $9.40 $4.60 $2.60
      • 5 - Mister Pollard (Scratch)
    • Race 5 
      • 9 - Allidoisdreamofyou [Also Ran]
      • 6 - Moon Gate Warrior [Also Ran]
      • 5 - Conquest Bigluck E [Win]
        • $4.60 $3.20 $2.80
      • Exotics
        • 2/8-9-5 $0.50 Pick 3: $14.10
    • Race 6
      • 7 - Hard Fought [Also Ran]
      • 11 - Curmit  [Also Ran]
      • 9 - Pitch Count [Show]
        • $7.60
    • Race 7 (Count Fleet Sprint Handicap)
      • 9 - Apprehender [Place]
        • $12.40 $4.40
      • 1 - Chief of Staff [Also Ran]
      • 4 - Black Bear [Also Ran]
    • Race 8 (Northern Spur)
      • 7 - Total Tap [Show]
        • $3.20
      • 1 - Cistron [Win]
        • $7.80 $4.00 $3.00
      • 2 - Colonelsdarktemper [Also Ran]
    • Race 9 (Oaklawn Handicap) 
      • 2 - Domain's Rap [Place]
        • $9.00 $3.40
      • 5 - Inside Straight [Win]
        • $41.40 $13.40 $5.00
      • 4 - Madefromlucky [Also Ran]
      • Exotics 
        • 5/2 $1.00 Exacta: $97.90
    • Race 10
      • 3 - Confederate Rags [Also Ran]
      • 2 - Langs Legend [Also Ran]
      • 11 - Greeleys Charm [Also Ran]
    • Race 11 (Arkansas Derby)
      • 7 - Sonneteer [Also Ran]
      • 2 - Classic Empire [Win]
        •  $5.80 $4.40 $3.80
      • 3 - Silver Dust [Also Ran]
    • Race 12 
      • 4 - Dontsaymyname [Also Ran]
      • 3 - The Rouge Diesel [Also Ran]
      • 6 - Indy Awesome [Win]
        • $15.60 $7.80 $4.20
    Summary for Saturday, April 15 at Oaklawn: 7 Winners, 13 of 34 OTB (2 scratch), $315.40

    Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
    • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 36 Days
      • $672.00 (336 Races)
    • Number of Winners Hit
      • 47 (14.0%)
    • Total Return on Winners
      • $776.00
    • Running Profit/Loss
      • +$104.00
    ************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
    Check back here later for a season summary of Oaklawn Park. I am also working out what to do next (another track or two perhaps) with the Monte Carlo program.

    Saturday, April 15, 2017

    April 15, 2017 (Arkansas Derby Day) Oaklawn Park Selections

    The 2017 racing season at Oaklawn Park concludes with a 12 race card on Arkansas Derby Day. The card includes 4 stakes races (3 graded) - the Count Fleet Sprint Handicap, the Northern Spur Stakes, the Oaklawn Handicap, and the Arkansas Derby. The Count Fleet Sprint Handicap is a Grade III stakes featuring 3 years old & up going 6 furlongs worth $400,000. The Northern Spur is a stakes race for 3 year olds worth $150,000. The Oaklawn Handicap is a Grade II stakes for 4 year olds & up worth $750,000. Finally, the Arkansas Derby is a Grade I stakes worth $1,000,000 for 3 year olds that features 170 points available in the Road to the Kentucky Derby (100 for win, 40 for place, 20 for show, and 10 for 4th). The Arkansas Derby has a stellar field including Rebel Stakes winner Malagacy, Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner Classic Empire, Untrapped who is always in the money (Lecomte Stakes, Risen Star Stakes, and Rebel Stakes), and Petrov who finished 2nd in both the Smarty Jones Stakes and the Southwest Stakes. There is a special first post time of 12:30 pm on Arkansas Derby Day at Oaklawn Park.

    My gut-based picks for the graded stakes races are the following:

    • Count Fleet Sprint Handicap
      • Whitmore
      • Apprehender
      • Sharp Art
    • Oaklawn Handicap
      • Midnight Storm
      • Domain's Rap
      • Madefromlucky
    • Arkansas Derby
      • Untrapped
      • Malagacy
      • Petrov
    The selections (tip sheet) from my Monte Carlo program from the day of racing are found below. I will round out the season of picking horses at Oaklawn for 2017 early next week and summarize the final "What If" game based on the Monte Carlo program selections. Enjoy your day at the races and come back to leave a tip if you benefited from this tip sheet.
    • Race 1
      • 4 - Skip the Pinot
      • 10 - Will Munnings
      • 2 - Heat Road
    • Race 2
      • 6 - O T B Bob
      • 12 - Roma Road
      • 10 - High Dollar Kitten
    • Race 3
      • 8 - Leofric
      • 2 - Fire Starter
      • 6 - Mishegas
    • Race 4
      • 4 - Net Gain
      • 9 - Abbaa
      • 5 - Mister Pollard
    • Race 5
      • 9 - Allidoisdreamofyou
      • 6 - Moon Gate Warrior
      • 5 - Conquest Bigluck E
    • Race 6
      • 7 - Hard Fought
      • 11 - Curmit
      • 9 - Pitch Count
    • Race 7 (Count Fleet Sprint Handicap)
      • 9 - Apprehender
      • 1 - Chief of Staff
      • 4 - Black Bear
    • Race 8 (Northern Spur)
      • 7 - Total Tap
      • 1 - Cistron
      • 2 - Colonelsdarktemper
    • Race 9 (Oaklawn Handicap)
      • 2 - Domain's Rap
      • 5 - Inside Straight
      • 4 - Madefromlucky
    • Race 10
      • 3 - Confederate Rags
      • 2 - Langs Legend
      • 11 - Greeleys Charm
    • Race 11 (Arkansas Derby)
      • 7 - Sonneteer
      • 2 - Classic Empire
      • 3 - Silver Dust
    • Race 12
      • 4 - Dontsaymyname
      • 3 - The Rouge Diesel
      • 6 - Indy Awesome 
    Good luck!

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