Oaklawn Park Selections for February 17, 2018

The full card for  Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs on February 17 has 10 races which includes the Bayakoa Stakes (a Grade 3 stakes) as the feature race. The tip sheet generated by my  OakPick Monte Carlo software is found below. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Rio Norte 
• 2 - Bye Crazy Eyes 
• 1 - Eternal Force
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Speedy Dansmere 
• 12 - Wishes Candy 
• 3 - Uncle Pappy
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Rio Seco 
• 5 - Pitchfork Mountain 
• 6 - Minefield
• 4th Race
• 8 - Imperatore 
• 2 - Carve 
• 3 - Misterbulltoyou
• 5th Race
• 6 - News Box 
• 3 - Air Power 
• 1 - Beat the Heat
• 6th Race
• 8 - Reckling 
• 6 - Love That Lute 
• 9 - Bird Orr Brady
• 7th Race
• 1 - Cherokee Salute 
• 9 - Desert Thief 
• 2 - Crack Your Whip
• 8th Race
• 2 - Moneymeister 
• 6 - Rickhouse 
• 1/1A - Lighthawk / Powerful Ally
• 9th Race
• 7 - Defy 
• 1 - Polar River 
• 6 - Terra Promessa
• 10th Race
• 9 - Cannington 
• 2 - Kidnap 
• 8 - Flyin' Orphan

For February 17, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(10 win) = 0.00000000040 
• P(9 win) = 0.00000003141 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000111025 
• P(7 win) = 0.00002311395 
• P(6 win) = 0.00031388343 
• P(5 win) = 0.00290491166 
• P(4 win) = 0.01855313735
• P(3 win) = 0.08073854093 
• P(2 win) = 0.22908761653 
• P(1 win) = 0.38266336838 
• P(0 win) = 0.28571428571

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.71428571429 
• At least 2 win = 0.33162234591 
• At least 3 win = 0.10253472938 
• At least 4 win = 0.02179618845 
• At least 5 win = 0.00324305110 
• At least 6 win = 0.00033813944 
• At least 7 win = 0.00002425601 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000114206 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000003181 
• At least 10 win = 0.00000000040

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. A summary of the full Presidents' Day weekend results will be posted on next Tuesday or Wednesday.