Oaklawn Park Selections for February 19, 2018

Presidents' Day at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs will feature two graded stakes races including the Southwest Stakes. Three year-olds dreaming of Triple Crown glory will be competing in the 9th race. I will be taking my daughters and meeting family and friends at the race track for the first time in 2018. Here is the February 19, 2018 tip sheet generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 5 - The Girl Factor 
• 1 - Rulzrmadetobbroken 
• 3 - Triple Kapalua 
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Small Town Hero 
• 10 - Tiz Showbiz 
• 2 - On the Lam  
• 3rd Race 
• 7 - Glitnir
• 8 - Early Bid 
• 1/1A - Yeowzer / Roma Road 
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Royal Edition 
• 6 - Blasphemy 
• 1 - Proximus 
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Royal Squeeze 
• 3 - Cu Rahy 
• 6 - Hallelujah Hit
• 6th Race 
• 8 - Leinster 
• 7 - D'oros Ruler 
• 6 - Yellow Wolf 
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Foxy Mischief 
• 2 - Getupbabygetup 
• 5 - Miz K 
• 8th Race 
• 10 - Futile 
• 1 - Untrapped 
• 11 - The Lieutenant
• 9th Race 
• 10 - Combatant
• 2 - Sporting Chance 
• 7 - Retirement Fund 
• 10th Race 
• 4 - Catdaddy 
• 10 - Plainsman 
• 1 - Bode's Maker

For February 19, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(10 win) = 0.00000000021 
• P(9 win) = 0.00000001794 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000067534 
• P(7 win) = 0.00001501119 
• P(6 win) = 0.00021811454 
• P(5 win) = 0.00216468493 
• P(4 win) = 0.01486042894 
• P(3 win) = 0.06967753026 
• P(2 win) = 0.21354939667 
• P(1 win) = 0.38630391271 
• P(0 win) = 0.31321022727

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.68678977273 
• At least 2 win = 0.30048586002 
• At least 3 win = 0.08693646336 
• At least 4 win = 0.01725893310 
• At least 5 win = 0.00239850416 
• At least 6 win = 0.00023381923 
• At least 7 win = 0.00001570468 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000069349 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000001815 
• At least 10 win = 0.00000000021

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will be traveling home after the day at Oaklawn Park, so the weekend summary may come out later than normal.