Oaklawn Park Selections for January 19, 2018

Today (January 18, 2018), Oaklawn Park cancelled the day of live racing because the track was frozen. Unlike some tracks around the country, Oaklawn does not use chemicals to thaw a frozen track. So, while the OakPick (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program) selections were loaded to go, I am not going to post them. Rather, here is the January 19, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by OakPick. As I always remind you, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race
• 4 - Florida Bird
• 5 - She's Undawnted
• 6 - Shadynstella 
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Coco Honey
• 6 - Super Bowl Girl
• 5 - Ensign
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Captivated
• 3 - To the King
• 7 - Zapper Dan
• 4th Race
• 8 - K L S Forty Three
• 10 - Bowman West
• 3 - First Response
• 5th Race
• 9 - Tiz Funny
• 7 - Speedy Dansmere
• 3 - Drama Star
• 6th Race
•  7 - La Key
• 3 - Five Star Factor
• 5 - Talmadge Tap
• 7th Race
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues
• 10 - Addy's Flowers
• 2 - Zan Creek
• 8th Race
• 8 - Tap of War
• 6 - Angelo's Ashes
• 2 - Bella Verde
• 9th Race
• 7 - Classic Bo
• 9 - Holiday's Angel
• 1 - Girl Power

In the future, the section below the picks will be used to display the probability of selecting a given number of winners from the top selection based on the assumed number of starters (that is, based on the entries before any horse is announced as a Scratch). For January 19, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000120
• P(8 win) = 0.00000009688
• P(7 win) = 0.00000346739
• P(6 win) = 0.00007195642
• P(5 win) = 0.00095404420
• P(4 win) = 0.00837973464
• P(3 win) = 0.04875258278
• P(2 win) = 0.18114480735
• P(1 win) = 0.39000826863
• P(0 win) = 0.37068504051

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.62931495949
• At least 2 win = 0.23930669086
• At least 3 win = 0.05816188351
• At least 4 win = 0.00940930073
• At least 5 win = 0.00102956609
• At least 6 win = 0.00007552189
• At least 7 win = 0.00000356547
• At least 8 win = 0.00000009808
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000120

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.