TOTUS Has A Brand New Blog

Ok. I can't help but laugh (Hey! it is either that or cry) about the fact that our current President is completely at a loss for words without the aid of a teleprompter. Apparently, POTUS doesn't even register the words he is saying. It's either that or he was hammered from the St. Patrick's Day party. I am hoping it is the former.

As the White House St. Patrick's Day party was winding down, President Obama, in a speech to those in attendance,





PAUSE





He can't even talk to those handpicked people at the White House without the teleprompter....





THINK ABOUT THAT FOR A SECOND





END PAUSE





thanked President Obama for inviting everyone over.



Here is a link to the story. That's funny! I don't care who you are (Sorry, Larry). So, yesterday I found out that the Teleprompter of the United States (TOTUS) has his own blog. Here is the link for this piece of brilliance. That was a million dollar (or more) idea right there. I truly wish I had thought of it. Enjoy and let me know if you think this is as funny and sad as I do.

2-10 Home Warranty Post #1

A few days ago I got an offer in the mail that gave us the opportunity to renew or restart my home warranty from 2-10 Home Warranty. Basically, after our previous experience with them, they were asking if I want to set $460 on fire in my outdoor pottery fireplace. This company was so bad, that to avoid the wrath of Kristy, the Better Business, Bureau, and a fraud lawsuit, they sent us a reimbursement check for their technicians' visits to our house. They KNEW they would lose BIG TIME!

Here is the list of prices on the postcard that reminded me how much I dislike this company:

• Basic Coverage -- $460
• Enhance HVAC -- $75
• Additional Pool/Spa -- $150
• Swimming Pool/Spa -- $150
  
• $60 Trade Fee -- $20 (I don't know what this is)
  
• Water Softener -- $40
  
• $45 Trade Fee -- $40 (I don't know what this is either)

Along with the prices for their warranty, they gave this list of expensive items that they would not actually pay to repair if they broke at your home that was supposedly covered by their warranty (again, based on my experience with them):

• "Replacing your home heating system could cost $3,100."
• "A major plumbing repair could cost $1,900."
• "Replacing a water heater could cost $700."
  

So, let me be clear about what I am trying to say about this company: 2-10 Home Warranty Company sucks! If you are going to waste your money on a home warranty, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty. Find some other company to waste your money. I don't have any recommendations on who is trustworthy is this regard. If you are getting a home warranty (paid for by a seller) for a new house, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty.

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I apologize for this rant after the fact. When we finally got rid of the coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty about 6 months ago (it was purchased by the seller of our home), I promised myself I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Sucks" post every time I got an email, mass mailing, or "personal" note from the company. Hopefully, there will not be a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #2," but I am pretty sure that 2-10 Home Warranty will send me some more direct marketing materials. I can only hope that someone will stumble on this post about 2-10 Home Warranty from Google and back out of buying a new or renewal policy from 2-10 Home Warranty because 2-10 Home Warranty sucks.

For those that don't know, I am trying to increase the number of times I write 2-10 Home Warranty in this post so that it will increase the odds that this post will be found when someone searches for 2-10 Home Warranty.

Anyone Else Embarrassed?

As a nation, we should be saying, "I'm REALLY, REALLY sorry about this!" to the United Kingdom (our staunchest ally and truly great partner in the world). I am sure that you are asking what has put this burr into Russ's saddle, so I will tell you.

Last week, as PM Gordon Brown made his trip over here to meet the President, he brought a gift with him: Ornamental pen holder made from the timbers of the Victorian anti-slave ship HMS Gannet - once called HMS President.

By the way, these sorts of gifts are traditionally exchanged when new US/UK leaders meet for the first time. Bear in mind that these gifts belong to the American and British people, and the President and Prime Minister are just stewards while in office. What did Mr. Obama give the British people? I am sure you are thinking that it has some real historical significance and meaning, and you would be WRONG.

Here is the gift that we gave them. Can I have a drumroll, please? ... ... ... We gave them 25 classic American films on DVD.

I will admit that, when I heard this on the Rush Limbaugh Show, I thought that Rush was having a little fun as he often does. I. Then, I realized that this is the sort of thing that Rush CANNOT spoof or parody, AND I felt really sick to my stomach. SOOO, I did a search and found this article in the UK Mail Online.

It appears that PM Brown tried to hide the gift from the British people and their press, and I don't blame him. I wish we hadn't given this gift either. What an embarassment!

Millenials To Meet Real Life?

About 2 months ago, I read this Wall Street Journal editorial on "millenials" or kids born between 1980 and 2001. As I look at what is going on today in our political climate (see this previous post or google/youtube "Henrietta Hughes" or "Julio Osegueda"), I think this editorial sheds light on how we might have gotten there. The first paragraph of the main article is VERY telling:

• "When Gretchen Neels, a Boston-based consultant, was coaching a group of college students for job interviews, she asked them how they believe employers view them. She gave them a clue, telling them that the word she was looking for begins with the letter 'e.' One young man shouted out, 'excellent.' Other students chimed in with 'enthusiastic' and 'energetic.' Not even close. The correct answer, she said, is 'entitled.' 'Huh?' the students responded, surprised and even hurt to think that managers are offended by their highfalutin opinions of themselves."

These students believed that someone who was meeting them for the first time had as high of opinion of them as their parents. To me, the real issue is that these young people entering the workplace expected (think they were entitled, maybe?) to have their jobs shaped to fit into a convenient box in their lives.

I think that the school of hard knocks is in store now that we are facing the worst economic conditions since the recession of the early 1980's (Don't be fooled by the "since the Great Depression" talk. We have seen this cycle in my lifetime.). I have a feeling that employers may use these lean times to rid their workplaces of the millenials who don't complete assignments because the manager or co-workers "didn't remind me." Here is a true recipe for disaster:

• "Millennials also want things spelled out clearly. Many flounder without precise guidelines but thrive in structured situations that provide clearly defined rules and the order that they crave. Managers will need to give step-by-step directions for handling everything from projects to voice-mail messages to client meetings. It may seem obvious that employees should show up on time, limit lunchtime to an hour and turn off cellphones during meetings. But those basics aren't necessarily apparent to many millennials."

Until these basics become apparent, I predict that many will be living in their basements with their parents. As the article points out, the managers of these unmanageables are the results of the managers' own style of parenting. These indulgent parents are dealing with those indulged children in the workplace.

Ahh, the irony of baby boomers paying the piper for some of the problems they have caused. I guess there are good things that come out of hard economic times.

Good News and Stuff

Guys, we finally made it home from the Mayo Clinic at about 11:45 Christmas Eve. Kristy finally saw a doctor that knew what was wrong with her. So, after about a year of hearing that she was normal (according to the test results) while not feeling anything close to normal, someone told her that he understood what was causing her such problems. We have some tough "vestibular rehabilitation" ahead but at least we know that there is a path to true normality (well, as close as Kristy gets to that).

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For those that don't already know, I had a no-holds barred battle with 4 (that's right, FOUR!) corneal ulcers during our trip to Minnesota. Thanks to those ulcers, both of the adults in our DePriest clan now have Mayo Clinic patient numbers. If you want to hear about a awful course of treatment, try this one on for size: Place one drop of Vigamox (ophthalmic solution) in left eye every hour for 7 days. That was the description on the prescription bottle. It included the hours during the night while sane people are sleeping. So, for two days, I woke up every hour and put a drop of magic eye potion in my left eye. After those first couple of days, I was able to reduce the frequency to just before bed and right as I woke up. So, that was a really restful few days of the holiday season.

Things are essentially back to normal now with the exception of maintenance drops every few hours and an oral antibiotic. I am just glad that I am not being fitted with a "glass" eye as my Christmas miracle. I had decided that if I lost the eye, then I would go with a glass eye with a laser beam that shoots out (sort of like the Terminator).

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In a previous post, I let you know about nominating Kristy for a 2008 Weblog award. It turns out that she is a finalist for the "Best Parenting Blog." Voting begins on January 5 and ends on January 12. Please be sure to stop by the Weblog Award Voting Site and vote for "Life on the Reflux Rollercoaster".

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I hope that I will get back to writing about the stuff that started this blog early in 2009. Life, politics, and economics have taken a priority over bad science for a few months. Maybe as Kristy begins to feel better, I will have the time to out the bad science that I see regularly in the media and scientific journals.

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Happy New Year!

Enough Already!

Ok. I am sure that you have noticed some of the substitutes for real conversation enhancers that that have started to be accepted as valid over the last couple of years. They have really started to get on my nerves because they really just deflect questions or provide convenient excuses. That is how I have started to use them. Here are a few of my favorite (or least favorite).

• "At the end of the day, ..."
• "It is what it is."
• "We are gonna shock the world." (In response to being an underdog)

Please feel free to add a few of your own.

Nominations Complete & Other Stuff

UPDATE on 2008 Weblog Awards:

Guys, the nominations for the 2008 Weblog awards are complete for the "Best Parenting" category. Kristy ended up with a "Score" of 30. In that category, that puts her at #4 out of 79 nominees. Over the next week or so, the finalists in each category will be notified, and the voting will begin on December 8. I will let you know if Kristy is a finalist so that you can vote for her.

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As many of you know, I am in Minnesota this week. Kristy is being examined by the doctors at the Mayo Clinic. This facility is world class and occupies the greater part of downtown Rochester. I have been impressed by how nice these people are. It is quite obvious to me that Mayo spends money on getting the best people and doesn't worry about having the newest possible examination tables (see below). That tells me that they care more about patient care than image. We are very hopeful that these docs can find out what has been plaguing her for the better part of a year.






Another thing that I should mention is that many people feel that Fibromyalgia is a crap diagnosis or made-up syndrome. Before this week, I will admit that I was one of them. After spending over 2 hours here with the experts at Mayo, I was sure that was going to be the diagnosis because no one can seem to find out what the deal is with her. The woman calmly explained that, while she has some elements that fall into the syndrome, Kristy doesn't fit with fibromyalgia. That impressed me. I think that the diagnosis is probably misapplied in a lot of places, but here in Minnesota, I think that they have it right.
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I watched #2 Texas TCEH get massacred by Oklahoma tonight. While I am always happy when the Red Raiders get embarrassed, I just wish that the Sooners were not involved.
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I guess that is enough random stuff for one post.

Nominate Kristy's Blog!

Ok! I know you like my blog, but I know who the best writer in the family is. The nominations for the Weblog Awards have started, and I think she writes the best parenting blog on the web. Sophie provides the material, and Kristy makes it hilarious.

I have started the nomination process, but you can nominate her as well. Here is the link for the nomination. Scroll down a little to find "Best Parenting Blog" and either 2nd my nomination or add your own. If you login via one of the supported authentication services (Typekey, WordPress, OpenID, Yahoo, AIM, etc.), your nomination will appear instantly. I don't have one of those accounts, so you probably won't see my nomination for about a day.

Chasing Mathematical Rabbits

Well, I am traveling this week for work. What that really means is that I sit in front of the TV a lot after 11-12 hours of work (usually watching the World Series of Poker on ESPN). I know that makes me a little weird. As some of my friends know, I got interested in poker a couple of years because I think it is an interesting mathematical problem.

For me, it is not as interesting when you see all the cards. It is quite simple to calculate the odds of winning when you know the cards (as on ESPN). The interesting problem for me was figuring the best hands to play against whatever number of players that are dealt a hand. Being an engineer and computer programmer, it wasn't enough for me to guess which hands should or shouldn't be played against 8 others players. I spent a great deal of time writing a Monte Carlo program that would:

• Randomly shuffle a deck of 52 cards
• Deal cards for 2-10 players
• Deal the community cards in Texas Hold'em (5 cards)
• Determine the winner
• Repeat millions of times

I now have a database of over 100 million hands. It would give aspiring poker players some insight into when they should chuck their hands. How valid are my simulations that use random numbers to simulate these hands of poker? That is a good question, and I asked it myself. Here is the summary of the community card hands compared to the traditionally calculated statistical probability for each hand:

• Straight Flush: 0.001536% (Sim), 0.001539% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99776
• Four of a Kind: 0.023971% (Sim), 0.024010% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99838
• Full House: 0.143659% (Sim), 0.144058% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99723
• Flush: 0.196929% (Sim), 0.196540% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00198
• Straight: 0.393720% (Sim), 0.392465% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00320
• Three of a Kind: 2.110972% (Sim), 2.112845% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99911
• Two Pair: 4.754903% (Sim), 4.753901% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00021
• Pair: 42.249452% (Sim), 42.256905% (Prob) --> Ratio = 0.99982
• High Card: 50.124858% (Sim), 50.117737% (Prob) --> Ratio = 1.00014

So, I have confidence that I programmed the darn "simple" problem right. It still doesn't help my poker game much because my "dumb" players all play the entire hand regardless of their two starting cards.

The next step is a Bayesian approach (using an expert opinion about probable outcomes based on limited information) to eliminate poor starting hands and improve the usefulness results of the program. Since I am not a poker expert, I need help figuring out the fold percentages for each of the 169 starting hands. Don't forget this percentage will change depending on the number of players that have a chance to beat you!

Who's up for the challenge?

Is This Real?

Well, I feel like I am going to throw up. I had this same feeling back in 1992 as the whole Hendrix College campus celebrated Bill Clinton's victory around me. It is good that the outcome is known early enough to get a good night's sleep. I do find some hope though:

Based on this logic, I can forget about sending my mortgage payments in the future, AND the gas station is going to just let the pumps run wild for anyone who shows up. WOW! What a country!

I have just two questions about this:

1. Does the mortgage thing happen now that the election is over or do we have to wait until after the inauguration?
2. Is this deal for all Americans or just the ones that voted for Obama?

I will have to call Chase Home Finance tomorrow to get answers to these very important questions, but I am still not sure how you prove that you voted for him. Anyone want to place bets about whether or not Chase will take my call seriously?

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On a serious note, I am glad that I live in Arkansas tonight rather than Kentucky, Indiana, South Carolina, Utah, West Virginia, Alaska , or Massachusetts. These are the seven states that still ban alcohol sales in some form on election day. I think there may be a need to stop by Crossover Liquor (in Fayetteville) to pick up some Maker's Mark before the night is over. I am just glad the election is behind us, and maybe a drink or eight will make it seem like a happier outcome.

Congrats to the Obama supporters. It is a historic night for this country, and the moment will be remembered for a long time. If I were you, I wouldn't count on him fulfilling many of those campaign promises. As for me, the only campaign promises he made that I actually believed are the tax hikes.

• BTW, increasing taxes and practicing trade isolation are the worst possible things that you can do in a slow down or recession (just ask Herbert Hoover), but that seems to be Obama's economic plan.

In any case, I am installing an intrusion detector on my wallet that wails "I told you so!" over and over when taxes are increased and praying that the next four years won't be as bad as I think they are going to be.