Normal Temperatures

Recently, I started asking myself why every weather forecast gives us the average high/low for that day of the year. In actuality, I started trying to figure out if those were the conditions that I should expect if I walked outside a year from now.  You guys know me pretty well, so you have already figured out that it didn't stop there. So, I went to the "Weather Underground" website and starting digging into the archives there.

The first thing I found out is that you can get a lot of historical (high/low) data at various weather stations around the country.  The interface is a little clunky and I didn't feel like writing a script, but I did get all the data for January 1 at Drake Field in Fayetteville.  The site has the highs/lows for the station there for 1948-2010 (actually 1961-1972 are missing). I placed the data for January 1 at the "KFYV" weather station (72701) into a spreadsheet. Then, I started looking at all the available data from a descriptive statistical point of view starting with the high temperature.

Descriptive Statistics for the Maximum Temperature at Drake Field in Fayetteville, Arkansas (1948-2010):

• Number of Data Points: 51 (N)
• Maximum:  70 degrees F
• Minimum:  15 degrees F
  
• Mean:  45.98 degrees F
• Standard Deviation:  12.62 degrees F
  
• Skewness:  -0.3368
• Kurtosis:  0.0052
• Test for normality of the distribution cannot reject Normal Distribution as the null hypothesis.  This means that I "can" assume the data is normally distributed.

The histogram for the high temperatures plotted with a normal distribution is seen below.

I did the same thing for the minimum temperature.

Descriptive Statistics for the Minimum Temperature at Drake Field in Fayetteville, Arkansas (1948-2010):

• Number of Data Points: 51 (N)
• Maximum:  59 degrees F
• Minimum:  3 degrees F
• Mean:  26.45 degrees F
• Standard Deviation:  12.79 degrees F
  
• Skewness: 0.4511
• Kurtosis:  0.1077
  
• Test for normality of the distribution cannot reject Normal Distribution as the null hypothesis.  This means that I "can" assume the data is normally distributed.

 The histogram for the low temperatures plotted with a normal distribution is seen below.

Now, Weather Underground lists the average maximum temperature as 45 degrees F while the average minimum temperature is 26 degrees F.  If I truncate my averages (rather than round off), I get exactly those numbers. By now I am certain that you are wondering if my little exercise actually helped me figure out the initial question about what the weather conditions will be like on January 1, 2011. It did.  Today (January 12, 2010), I can say with 68% certainty that the high temperature on January 1, 2011 will be in the interval [33, 58] degrees F and the low temperature will be in the interval [14, 39] degrees F with 68% certainty.

I can hear Josh say, "Big deal, Russ!  You gave yourself a 25 degree window."  AND, he would be right.  However, that is my point.  When I started this meandering, I didn't realize how big the variation (i.e., the standard deviation) for those average temperatures really is.  SOOO, the next time the weatherman tells you that the high (or low) for the day is 12 degrees above normal (or below normal) you shouldn't be surprised (especially if you live in Fayetteville).

Vindication

Many of you have personally witnessed me get passionate about why I think anthropogenic global warming (AGW) is a hoax.  Secretly, I think Walt, Josh and Zach probably believe I am in serious need of some medication based on the looks I get from them when we have talked about this subject. Well, over the last few days, I have gotten some confirmation that I am not totally out there in the weeds when I discount the "science"  of AGW.  Here it is from Walt's favorite source:  Glenn Beck.

The last few days have felt pretty good for those of us who questioned this stuff. Normally, I think "hackers" are the pretty lowly, but in this case, I will make an exception.

Bonfire Remembered

For those of you who don't know, Kristy and I spent almost exactly five years in Bryan/College Station while I attended graduate school at Texas A&M University. We arrived in College Station on Kristy's birthday (July 11, 1996), I defended my PhD in nuclear engineering on Kristy's birthday (July 11, 2001), and we pulled up stakes for Albuquerque and Sandia National Laboratories about a week later. We loved the experience of living in Aggieland (especially if you take away the brutally hot summers), but we were there during the collapse of the annual Aggie Bonfire.

You may remember the collapse in the news, but you may not remember that 11 students and 1 former student died when the stack collapsed 10 years ago today. It was one of the saddest moments in the history of Texas A&M. The entire campus felt different for the rest of that 1999 fall semester, and to some extent, every fall semester has had a different feel since then.

For us, the Bonfire collapse was very personal even though we didn't know any of the 12 victims. The Bonfire construction always began in early September as students would go to the cut site and start clearing the land. About a MONTH or more before the game against the Longhorns, the students would begin stacking the logs. Some Aggie bonfires reached heights over a 100 feet before the administration started putting limits on them. As peripheral participants (that is, we watched the construction closely and looked forward to Thanksgiving night when it was lit), we both felt just a little excitement every time we would see the stack. The site was located adjacent to the Zachry Engineering building parking lot, so each morning I would look out in amazement at the progress. The STUDENTS were building this monstrous thing with very little mechanization.

We received a phone call from our friends at about 4 in the morning to tell us of the tragedy. Then, Mom called shortly after because she wanted to make sure I wasn't trapped under 1,000 logs at the bonfire site. In the days that followed, we made our way to the site and the makeshift memorial. We cried a LOT. We couldn't believe that it had happened.

On November 26, 1999, I attended the Texas-Texas A&M game for the only time that we lived in College Station. I felt like one of our best friends (Jen -- she cried/cries at every game) because I cried when the jets flew over in missing man formation before the game. The game ended like it should have, the Aggies prevailed 20-16 in front of over 86,000 Texans.

This is Brian Gamble after he recovered the Major Applewhite fumble to seal the win:


It is really hard to believe that it has been 10 years since that event and this picture (with many others from that day) will still start my eyes watering. My prayers are with the families of the victims and all Aggies that stop to reflect back today.

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Here is the link to the Bonfire Memorial video. It is about five minutes long, but it is worth it. Here is another good site on the aftermath.

Online Garage Sale

I got in my car the other day and realized that I have a LOT of stuff lying around that I no longer need. For instance, there were 3 books on CD that I listened to during our move from Albuquerque to Fayetteville over 2 years ago. I don't really want to have an actual garage sale or learn the internals of selling on eBay or Craig's list, so I thought that I would have a small (3 items) sale to see if I can start downsizing the amount of stuff in my life. Basically, if you want one of these books on CD send me $6.00 (cash) or $7.00 (check). If you want all 3, I will take $15.00 (cash) or $18.00 (check).

• "The Copper Scroll" by Joel C. Rosenberg. Currently listed as $9.50 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $5.00 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 4 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.
• "The Prometheus Deception" by Robert Ludlum. Currently listed as $7.66 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $4.98 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 6 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.
• "The Templar Legacy" by Steve Berry. Currently listed as $9.00 + $3.99 shipping (NEW) and $3.98 + $3.99 (USED) on Amazon. The 6 CDs have each had 1 use and the packaging is in excellent condition.

Leave a comment that let's me know how to contact you if you are interested in helping me reduce the amount of stuff in my life. BTW, if you want to pick up the items, I will discount the price because I don't have to ship them.

Distracted Driving? You Make the Call!

Here is a random episode from today. Kristy is driving back from lunch on I-540 while I sit almost asleep in the passenger seat. Sophie had just asked for "Calle Ocho (???)" on the radio as Kristy blurted out, "I don't know what this idiot thinks he is doing!" Naturally, I looked up.

We had slowed down to ~60 MPH because 2 semi-trucks had decided to block the interstate by going about the same speed in both lanes. There was a guy zooming by us to get right behind these 18-wheelers. It's bad enough because he had to slam on his brakes to keep from hitting them. That's when I realized that this dude was reading his mail. No, I am not talking about his email. He was actually taking papers out of envelopes and holding the papers in front of his face to read.

So, I thought, "That's a pretty bad idea to be reading while driving" when he switched the cell phone from the left shoulder slump hold to the right hand/left ear across the face talking formation. Of course, he had to do that in order to reach across the steering wheel (after letting go of it) with his left hand and take a drink of what I HOPE was a soda. This was one big accident waiting to happen cruising along at ~75 MPH.

The real question for me is now "where did he cross the line?" Was it the reading or the reading plus phone? Just the phone? I am pretty positive that this is a distracted driving case. Actually, the most blatant that I have seen after 50 miles/day on the interstate for 6 years. SOOOO, anyone that has a story like this please share.

Reversals

Guys, I don't feel like I am all alone out there any more. Several groups are either backing down from previous greenhouse gas positions (National Wheat Growers Association) or rethinking their position on anthropogenic global warming (American Physical Society). Another group is trying to have the editor of their society journal removed because of his views on AGW and climate change (American Chemical Society). The response of some ACS members really warms my heart (FYI, in the quotes below, Baum is the editor under fire) :

• “I think it’s time to find a new editor.” -- ACS member Thomas E. D’Ambra
• “Your editorial was a disgrace. It was filled with misinformation, half-truths, and ad hominem attacks on those who dare disagree with you. Shameful!” -- ACS member Dennis Malpass
• “Baum’s remarks are particularly disquieting because of his hostility toward skepticism, which is part of every scientist’s soul. Let’s cut to the chase with some questions for Baum: Which of the 20-odd major climate models has settled the science, such that all of the rest are now discarded? [...] Do you refer to ‘climate change’ instead of ‘global warming’ because the claim of anthropogenic global warming has become increasingly contrary to fact?” -- ACS member Dr. Howard Hayden

There were other comments just as scathing. It is great to see that scientists (most of whom have had doubts all along) are speaking out when the issue comes home to their particular professional society. It seems that they might be worried that their credibility will be sullied by association with the claims of the AGW believers.

BTW, Greenpeace is now admitting that the Arctic will NOT be ice-free by 2030. However, they justify the LIE by saying that they were "emotionalizing" the issue.

2-10 Home Warranty Post #2

Guys, I know that I haven't posted anything since April 1, but I am planning to make my way back to posting regularly again in the near future. That's almost SIX months, so only those who have put me in their feed reader will even know that I am posting this. It's amazing that a big dose of insomnia coupled with another solicitation from a horrible company like 2-10 Home Warranty might spur me to posting again. If you followed me before you know that I promised if I ever got another mass marketing postcard from 2-10 Home Warranty, then I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #2." Well, a few days ago I got another offer in the mail that gave us the opportunity to renew or restart my home warranty from 2-10 Home Warranty. Basically, after our previous experience with them, they were asking if I want to set $460 on fire in my outdoor pottery fireplace. This company was so bad, that to avoid the wrath of Kristy, the Better Business, Bureau, and a fraud lawsuit, they sent us a reimbursement check for their technicians' visits to our house. They KNEW they would lose BIG TIME!

Here is the list of prices on the postcard that reminded me how much I dislike this company:

• Basic Coverage -- $460
• Enhance HVAC -- $75
• Additional Pool/Spa -- $150
• Swimming Pool/Spa -- $150
  
• $60 Trade Fee -- $20 (I don't know what this is)
  
• Water Softener -- $40
  
• $45 Trade Fee -- $40 (I don't know what this is either)

Along with the prices for their warranty, they gave this list of expensive items that they would not actually pay to repair if they broke at your home that was supposedly covered by their warranty (again, based on my experience with them):

• "Replacing your home heating system could cost $3,100."
• "A major plumbing repair could cost $1,900."
• "Replacing a water heater could cost $700."
  

Again if you missed "2-10 Home Warranty Post #1," let me be clear about what I am trying to say about this company: 2-10 Home Warranty Company sucks! If you are going to waste your money on a home warranty, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty. Find some other company to waste your money. I don't have any recommendations on who is trustworthy in this regard. If you are getting a home warranty (paid for by a seller) for a new house, DON'T BUY your coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty.

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For a second time, I apologize for this rant after the fact. When we finally got rid of the coverage from 2-10 Home Warranty about 18 months ago (it was purchased by the seller of our home), I promised myself I would write a "2-10 Home Warranty Sucks" post every time I got an email, mass mailing, or "personal" note from the company. Hopefully, there will not be a "2-10 Home Warranty Post #3," but I am pretty sure that 2-10 Home Warranty will send me some more direct marketing materials. I can only hope that someone will stumble on this post about 2-10 Home Warranty from Google and back out of buying a new or renewal policy from 2-10 Home Warranty because 2-10 Home Warranty sucks.

For those that don't know, I am trying to increase the number of times I write 2-10 Home Warranty in this post so that it will increase the odds that this post will be found when someone searches for 2-10 Home Warranty.

Inflation? What's Inflation?

I often wondered about the best way to define or describe inflation and have never found a way to present it in a way that satisfies my understanding. Statements like "Too many dollars chasing too few goods" or "an increase in the price of a basket of goods and services that is representative of the economy as a whole" have never had any real meaning to me. That is why when I heard Neal Boortz explain it a few weeks ago, it finally clicked for me. This is how he explained it:

• Imagine that you are at an auction buying items from all over the world. You have a certain amount of money, someone else has half that amount, and someone else has three times your amount. The auction is going along, and the people bidding on things have some idea of what they are willing to pay for the items being sold. Now, let's say that someone calls timeout on the bidding and brings in a few stacks of hundred dollar bills. He sets them on the table and walks away saying, "Have at it, boys!" After the orderly scramble to get your share of the piles of money is over, the auction resumes. Now, think about what will happen to the bidding after everyone has more dollars to bid. The prices "sure as hell" aren't going down.

Now, our government has decided to put 10,000,000,000 hundred dollar bills (that's $1,000,000,000,000 for the Tceh graduates out there) into the U.S./world economy. Does anybody want to take a guess about what is going to happen to the price of EVERYTHING in the next couple of years? My bet is that we will look back on the Carter years with fondness after this stagflation hits us in the face.

Here's some free advice (I am sure it's worth what you paid for it): If you have credit card debt, pay it off. If you have adjustable rate loans tied to the FED rate, find a way to get out of it to something fixed. Basically, get out of debt as fast as you can. Interest rates are going to skyrocket once this inflation train starts rolling. With that cheerful thought, have a good evening.

Return to Illumination Hour

I am re-posting this rant from last March. It was one of my first few posts (March 26, 2008). We are planning a similar party this year for Saturday, March 28. We will have help from 4 more people because my brother Adam and his family will be visiting. Illumination Hour will take place between 8:30 and 9:30 pm. Join us from your house if you get the chance.

As a side note, Rush Limbaugh jumped on this Thursday afternoon during his show. I am wondering if he was an early adopter of MPU as a daily read. Also, the "on the hour" radio news this morning has noted that there several businesses around the country doing Illumination Hour rather than Earth Hour.

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"Who Doesn't Want to Wear the Ribbon"
Originally posted March 26, 2008

Over the years I have been amazed at the absolutely meaningless gestures that people will go through to prove that they care about something. Many of you will recognize the post title from Kramer's run-in with some "street toughs" over his refusal to wear an AIDS awareness ribbon.



I guess everyone on the planet except me knows that having more ribbons on your lapel than Patton means that you care more about the rain forest, AIDS research, breast cancer, etc. than someone who doesn't wear them. Somehow this makes sense. Which brings me to what has many jazzed today, Earth Hour.

In case you don't know (I didn't until this morning), Earth Hour is a ritual that the inventors of Earth Day have brought us this year. Next Saturday (March 29) between 8 and 9 pm, we are supposed to power down "non-essential" electrical appliance and turn off all of our lights to show that we care about energy conservation and reducing our carbon footprint. Basically, the idea is to produce a voluntary blackout for an hour to reflect on the evilness of our comfortable but very energy intensive lifestyle. Jay Currie has a very different idea.

I have never read his blog before today, but from this post I get the idea that he is just about as tired of empty gestures as I am. He has decided to "Just Say No!" by keeping his lights on (ALL of them) during Earth Hour. I get confused on the inspiration for the idea but Tim Blair has planned an Illumination Hour on March 29 between 8 and 9 pm. As my buddy Chip would say, "What are the odds?" A couple of Tim's dedicated readers have decided to take it a step further and have a Carbon Party.

That is my kind of activism. During their HOUR OF POWER, it sounds like they plan on some sort of steel cage death match between the AC unit and the furnace with the winner getting to dominate the household environment for an hour. They also plan to run their vehicles, all electronic equipment, oven, and the washer and dryer. The hope is that they will consume enough electricity during the hour to more than offset any conservation accomplished during the Earth Hour.

If you're interested in becoming part of Illumination Hour to make a mockery of according to Samantha Burns, "Earth Hour stupidity, and all it represents," then visit her web page and sign the official online petition. If you don't have the activist, petition-signing bent, just forget what your Dad always told you for an hour and leave the light on when you leave a room this Saturday night.

Or better yet, you could call Motel 6 and ask them to keep several lights on for you.

Where Does My AGW Skepticism Originate?

For those of who have discussed this with me, you know that I have discounted MAN-CAUSED global warming for a long time. In fact, based on things like the Surface Station Project, I wonder if we have any way of providing a long term climate record sufficient enough to say anything about climate trends. If you don't know, Anthony Watts (whose blog is a daily read for me) started a project to physically survey each of the climate stations in the United States Historical Climatological Network. He has completed 854 of the 1221 stations. He has found the following using the NOAA criteria for assessing the error in the data:

• 11% of the sites have errors less than 1 degree C
  
• 20% of the sites have errors between 1 and 2 degrees C
  
• 58% of the sites have errors between 2 and 5 degrees C
  
• 11% of the sites haves errors greater than 5 degrees C

Now, we have been told that an increase in the global temperature by 2 degrees C will lead to all kinds of disasters. I don't think that I have been sufficiently convinced that a global temperature has any meaning. However, for the sake of argument, I will go with that assumption for the moment. In the U.S. (where the best climatological data is found because we have $$ for it), 69% of the sites in our historic record set have errors greater than 2 degrees C. So, we can't measure temperature in the U.S. to a point where we can distinguish between measurement error and the catastrophic temperature signal. Combine that this presentation on the debunking of the famous "hockey stick" by Steve McIntyre, and it leaves me very skeptical that man is changing the global temperature by taking an SUV to soccer practice.

• Do I think that the earth warmed in the 20th century? Yes.
• Do I think that the warming was the result of man's emission of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases? No.
• Will the earth be cooler or warmer 50 years from now? Yes.
  

Here is the point. Climate changes all the time, and there is very little if anything we can do about it (unless we figure out a way to control that big ball of fire in the sky). Today's climate is not perfect and tomorrow's won't be either. The best way (i.e, the cheapest and most proven way) to deal with a changing climate is to adapt. Here is what I mean:

• If it's brutally hot in the summer where you live, move or live in a house with AC.
• If it's brutally cold in the winter, move or live in a house with a good heating system.

These things are what humans have done throughout history. Why should we be any different?