February 19 and February 20 MC Algorithm Results from Oaklawn Park

Well, the first week of using the Monte Carlo method to pick winners at Oaklawn Park is in the books. Overall, it was not a bad week, but I intend to keep tracking the progress until the end of the Winter Meet. Keep in mind that I am not actually putting money on these horses. I am simply asking a "what if" I selected these horses using this computer simulation.

Let me give an example, "What if I purchased a $1.00 Exacta box on the 3 picks produced by the program for the week?" There were 38 races so my investment in such a strategy would be 38 x $6.00 = $228.00. This doesn't account for the savings on scratched horses, so the investment is actually $10-$20 less. The strategy would have hit these exacta results:

• Feb 17 (Race 6): 6/2 Exacta - $14.10
• Feb 17 (Race 7): 2/5 Exacta - $132.70
• Feb 18 (Race 9): 2/8 Exacta - $29.20
• Feb 19 (Race 7): 12/7 Exacta - $23.50
• Feb 20 (Race 2): 2/10 Exacta - $227.80

The total return is $427.30 for a profit of more than $199.30. Someone that used these picks to do that should consider using the PayPal tip jar found in the left banner at the top of the blog. Anyway, that is how I am using this program and picks. February 19 picks can be seen here. Here are the results:

• 1st Race
• 2 - Hank's Alibi [Win]
•  $9.40  $4.60  $3.80
• 12 - Ms. D's Last Storm [Also Ran]
• 8 - October Sky [Also Ran]
• 2nd Race
• 9 - Mae's Magic [Also Ran]
• 8 - Scotch Is My Candy [Show]
• $2.80
• 4 - Little Dixie K [Place]
• $15.40  $7.00
• 3rd Race
• 7 - Cash King [Also Ran]
• 2 - Rippin Ride [Show]
• $4.00
• 4 - Midnight Blue Note [Also Ran]
• 4th Race
• 7 - You Vow Me [Show]
• $4.00
• 2 - Bosses Money [Also Ran]
• 3 - Rose of the Nile [Also Ran]
• 5th Race
• 12 - Cash Money Always [Also Ran]
• 5 - Savie [Scratch]
• 11 - Cedarville [Place]
• $15.40  $8.40
• 6th Race
• 2 - Tour de Rock [Also Ran]
• 12 - Eddington's Star [Also Ran]
• 10 - Big Ben [Also Ran]
• 7th Race
• 6 - Not for Truth [Also Ran]
• 12 - Glacken's Ghost [Win]
• $8.00  $4.60  $3.00
• 7 - Quik Way Road [Place]
• $5.60  $3.00
• Exotic Results
• 12/7 $1.00 Exacta:  $23.50
• 8th Race
• 3 - My Master Plan [Also Ran]
• 6 - Chanteline [Place]
• $4.00  $3.00
• 1 - Calypso Run [Also Ran]
• 9th Race
• 5 - Tempting Our Fate [Also Ran]
• 6 - Never Hungover [Show]
• $6.00
• 8 - Sameeha [Place]
• $4.20  $3.20

To sum up Sunday, February 19: 2 Winners, 1 Exacta, 11 of 26 on the board (1 scratch), $142.90.

February 20 picks can be seen here. Here are the results:

• 1st Race
• 7 - Magic Eraser [Also Ran]
• 8 -  Delta Chance [Also Ran]
• 10 - Vested Creek [Show]
• $2.80
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Wild About Irene [Win]
• $6.60  $4.20  $3.40
• 10 - Cherishabull [Place]
• $41.20  $15.00
• 9 - Zan Creek [Also Ran]
• Exotic Results
• 2/10 $1.00 Exacta:  $227.80
• 3rd Race
• 8 - Jean's Beauty [Also Ran]
• 5 - Dixie Lover [Win]
• $4.60  $3.80  $3.00
• 11 - Sham's Shoes [Also Ran]
• 4th Race
• 9 - Swifty Cat [Also Ran]
• 8 - Arctic Music [Also Ran]
• 10 - Will Wants Candy [Also Ran]
• 5th Race
• 2 - Durrett Lane [Also Ran]
• 6 - War Memorial [Also Ran]
• 7 - Wildcard [Also Ran]
• 6th Race
• 8 - Grandpa's Dream [Also Ran]
• 4 - Boxer Boy [Also Ran]
• 1 - Appalachian Gem [Win]
• $10.60  $4.60  $3.60
• 7th Race
• 7 - Dazzling Gem [Scratch]
• 1 - Gun Runner [Win]
• $2.40  $2.20  $2.10
• 2 - Domain's Rap [Show]
• $3.00
• 8th Race
• 5 - Dac [Also Ran]
• 1/1A - King of New York/Mishegas [Scratch/Also Ran]
• 9 - Suddenbreakingnews [Also Ran]
• 9th Race
• 7 - Warrior's Club [Also Ran]
• 3 - Uncontested [Also Ran]
• 11 - One Liner [Win]
• $8.80  $5.40  $3.40
• 10th Race
• 1 - Silver G T O [Scratch]
• 2 - Altito [Also Ran]
• 6 - Addaichi [Also Ran]

To sum up Monday, February 20: 5 Winners, 1 Exacta (a BIG one), 8 of 28 on the board (2 scratches), $358.50.

February 20, 2017 Oaklawn Park Selections

The February 20, 2017 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs is below. It was generated by a Monte Carlo computer algorithm. I will review yesterday's and today's picks later in the week as those are off days for the track. As always, if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips (see top left banner).

• 1st Race
• 7 - Magic Eraser
• 8 -  Delta Chance
• 10 - Vested Creek
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Wild About Irene
• 10 - Cherishabull
• 9 - Zan Creek
• 3rd Race
• 8 - Jean's Beauty
• 5 - Dixie Lover
• 11 - Sham's Shoes
• 4th Race
• 9 - Swifty Cat
• 8 - Arctic Music
• 10 - Will Wants Candy
• 5th Race
• 2 - Durrett Lane
• 6 - War Memorial
• 7 - Wildcard
• 6th Race
• 8 - Grandpa's Dream
• 4 - Boxer Boy
• 1 - Appalachian Gem
• 7th Race
• 7 - Dazzling Gem
• 1 - Gun Runner
• 2 - Domain's Rap
• 8th Race
• 5 - Dac
• 1/1A - King of New York/Mishegas
• 9 - Suddenbreakingnews
• 9th Race
• 7 - Warrior's Club
• 3 - Uncontested
• 11 - One Liner
• 10th Race
• 1 - Silver G T O
• 2 - Altito
• 6 - Addaichi

February 19, 2017 Oaklawn Park Selections

Here is the February 19, 2017 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by a Monte Carlo computer algorithm. This will be the 3rd day I have used it for Oaklawn Park predictions. The results from yesterday are below the picks for today. As always, if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips (see top left banner).

• 1st Race
• 2 - Hank's Alibi
• 12 - Ms. D's Last Storm
• 8 - October Sky
• 2nd Race
• 9 - Mae's Magic
• 8 - Scotch Is My Candy
• 4 - Little Dixie K
• 3rd Race
• 7 - Cash King
• 2 - Rippin Ride
• 4 - Midnight Blue Note
• 4th Race
• 7 - You Vow Me
• 2 - Bosses Money
• 3 - Rose of the Nile
• 5th Race
• 12 - Cash Money Always
• 5 - Savie
• 11 - Cedarville
• 6th Race
• 2 - Tour de Rock
• 12 - Eddington's Star
• 10 - Big Ben
• 7th Race
• 6 - Not for Truth
• 12 - Glacken's Ghost
• 7 - Quik Way Road
• 8th Race
• 3 - My Master Plan
• 6 - Chanteline
• 1 - Calypso Run
• 9th Race
• 5 - Tempting Our Fate
• 6 - Never Hungover
• 8 - Sameeha

Yesterday's results at Oaklawn Park are shown below. The picks can be found here.

• 1st Race
• 8 - Moon Song [Scratch]
• 10 - Carlos Dangerous [Also Ran]
• 2 - Sturdy Allan [Scratch]
• 2nd Race
• 4 - Legendary Vision [Place]
• $5.40  $3.40
• 1 - Travel West [Show]
• $3.60
• 7 - My Boy Lane [Also Ran]
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Ten to Show [Also Ran]
• 4 - Copper Hill [Also Ran]
• 9 - Greyjoy [Also Ran]
• 4th Race
• 4 - Conquest Wildcat
  
• 5 - All Right
• 2 - Silver Bullion
• 5th Race
• 5 - Paschal [Also Ran]
• 3 - Double A [Also Ran]
• 8 - Proper Decorum [Also Ran]
• 6th Race
• 8 - Doctor Peter [Also Ran]
• 11 - Port Aggregate [Place]
• $5.80  $3.60
• 4 - Sharm [Also Ran]
• 7th Race
• 12 - Alabama Tide [Also Ran]
• 1 - Bear's Big Boy [Also Ran]
• 3 - Manhattan Mischief [Win]
• $9.60  $5.40  $4.60
• 8th Race
• 8 - Hard to Stop [Also Ran]
• 1 - Silver Lining John [Win]
• $12.20  $6.20  $4.80
• 11 - Long Station [Show]
• $4.60
• 9th Race
• 4 - Power of Snunner [Place]
• $15.20  $6.80
• 2 - Terra Promessa [Win]
• $3.00  $3.00  $2.20
• 3 - Hailstorm Slew [Also Ran]
• Exotics
• 2/4 $1.00 Exacta:  $29.20
• 10th Race
• 9 - Rapid Dial [Scratch]
• 11 - Scarlet Wine [Also Ran]
• 2 - Minegold  [Also Ran]

The computer program selected 3 winners out of 10 races with 9 of 27 [3 scratches] selections on the board. The proper wagering strategy could have yielded payouts of $136.80. The Monte Carlo approach is performing better than the day where I made my own picks.

February 18, 2017 Oaklawn Park Selections

Here is the February 18, 2017 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by a proprietary Monte Carlo computer algorithm. This is the just the second day I have used it for Oaklawn Park predictions. The results from the first day of predictions (yesterday) are below the picks for today. As always, if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips (see top left banner).

• 1st Race
• 8 - Moon Song
• 10 - Carlos Dangerous
• 2 - Sturdy Allan
• 2nd Race
• 4 - Legendary Vision
• 1 - Travel West
• 7 - My Boy Lane
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Ten to Show
• 4 - Copper Hill
• 9 - Greyjoy
• 4th Race
• 4 - Conquest Wildcat
  
• 5 - All Right
• 2 - Silver Bullion
• 5th Race
• 5 - Paschal
• 3 - Double A
• 8 - Proper Decorum
• 6th Race
• 8 - Doctor Peter
• 11 - Port Aggregate
• 4 - Sharm
• 7th Race
• 12 - Alabama Tide
• 1 - Bear's Big Boy
• 3 - Manhattan Mischief
• 8th Race
• 8 - Hard to Stop
• 1 - Silver Lining John
• 11 - Long Station
• 9th Race
• 4 - Power of Snunner
• 2 - Terra Promessa
• 3 - Hailstorm Slew
• 10th Race
• 9 - Rapid Dial
• 11 - Scarlet Wine
• 2 - Minegold

Here are the results from February 17, 2017 Oaklawn Park selections using the Monte Carlo algorithm. The picks can be found using this link.

• 1st Race
• 4 - Funny Questions [Show]
• $4.40
• 6 - Tempo Seeker [Place]
• $10.00  $5.80
• 1 - Dusty [Also Ran]
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Artic Vortex [Also Ran]
• 8 - Bandolera's Gold [Show]
• $4.80
• 9 - First Heart Break [Also Ran]
• 3rd Race
• 6 - Malibu Tide [Also Ran]
• 3 - Lotto Cat [Also Ran]
• 4 - Ring Necked [Also Ran]
• 4th Race
• 7 - Hollarforadollar [Also Ran]
• 2 - Fleet Grey [Also Ran]
• 4 - Titfortat [Show]
• $4.60
• 5th Race
• 6 - Pirate's Moon [Also Ran]
• 8 - Hanalei Surf Dog [Also Ran]
• 4 - Bob Engleberger [Also Ran]
• 6th Race
• 6 - Solve [Win]
• $6.20  $3.80  $3.00
• 1 - Glitnir [Show]
• $4.80
• 2 - Cutacorner [Place]
• $4.80  $3.20
• Exotic Results
• 6/2 $1.00 Exacta: $14.10
• 6/2/1 $0.50 Trifecta: $51.15
• 7th Race
• 8 - Hello Everybody [Also Ran]
• 5 - Zella Rose [Place]
• $39.40  $12.20
• 2 - Sage's Epiphany [Win]
• $7.40  $5.00  $3.20
• Exotic Results
• 2/5 $1.00 Exacta: $132.70
• 8th Race
• 3 - Wilbo [Show]
• $4.40
• 9 - Imahit [Also Ran]
• 5 - W. B. Smudge [Also Ran]
• 9th Race
• 11 - Ristan [Also Ran]
• 6 - Mountain Home [Also Ran]
• 2 - She's Undawnted [Also Ran]

Now, that's 2 winners out of 9 races with 10 of 27 selections on the board. The proper wagering strategy could have yielded payouts of $324.95. The Monte Carlo approach had a better day than I did using my intuition yesterday. Let's see if the trend will continue. 

Oaklawn Park Race Picks for February 17, 2017

Today, I start with the first set of Monte Carlo simulation results for the horse racing picks. Going forward, I will be reporting on how well my model does rather than my attempts to decipher past performance data. I have also decided not to include all the class, distance, and conditions for the races going forward because those are easily accessible at the track, at Equibase, or at Brisnet. Let's hope the computer knows what it is calculating about...

• 1st Race
• 4 - Funny Questions
• 6 - Tempo Seeker
• 1 - Dusty
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Artic Vortex
• 8 - Bandolera's Gold
• 9 - First Heart Break
• 3rd Race
• 6 - Malibu Tide
• 3 - Lotto Cat
• 4 - Ring Necked
• 4th Race
• 7 - Hollarforadollar
• 2 - Fleet Grey
• 4 - Titfortat
• 5th Race
• 6 - Pirate's Moon
• 8 - Hanalei Surf Dog
• 4 - Bob Engleberger
• 6th Race
• 6 - Solve
• 1 - Glitnir
• 2 - Cutacorner
• 7th Race
• 8 - Hello Everybody
• 5 - Zella Rose
• 2 - Sage's Epiphany
• 8th Race
• 3 - Wilbo
• 9 - Imahit
• 5 - W. B. Smudge
• 9th Race
• 11 - Ristan
• 6 - Mountain Home
• 2 - She's Undawnted

Now, let's recap how I did with the picks from yesterday that were based on my intuition rather a computer model. There are a ton of "Also Ran" entries in my picks, but using the metrics often found on horse racing tout sheets I picked 3 winners, 2 exactas, and a trifecta. If you wagered properly (that is, if you only bet on the horses that came in - how about that for a metric), you would have racked in $132.85.

• 1st Race
• 9 - Enchanted Rambam [Also Ran]
• 4 - Iftheyonlyknew [Scratch]
• 7 - Awesom Champ [Also Ran]
• 2nd Race
• 9 - Classic Arch [Also Ran]
• 8 - Counton Claire [Also Ran]
• 4 - Flashy Ruthie [Also Ran]
• 3rd Race
• 7 - The Rouge Diesel [Also Ran]
• 8 - Shootout [Also Ran]
• 4 - Crush [Win]
• $22.60  $9.60   $5.20
• 4th Race
• 6 - J P of Galilee [Win]
• $7.00  $2.80   $2.40
• 4 - Bud's Mr. B [Place]
• $3.40  $2.40
• 1/1A - Gumshoe/Zapper Dan [Also Ran]
• Exotics Results
• 6/4 $1.00 Exacta: $10.40
• 5th Race
• 1 - Big Sugarush [Also Ran]
• 2 - Dynamic Impact [Also Ran]
• 7 - Areed [Place]
• $5.00   $3.00
• 6th Race
• 2 - Tonbo [Place]
• $3.80  $3.00
• 4 - Rank [Win]
• $7.20  $3.60  $2.80
• 6 - Stand Guard [Show]
• $4.00
• Exotics Results
• 4/2 $1.00 Exacta: $12.00
• 4/2/6 $0.50 Trifecta: $16.65
• 7th Race
• 5 - Sanilac [Also Ran]
• 4 - Jungle Lane [Also Ran]
• 3 - Unsung [Also Ran]
• 8th Race
• 6 - Financial Modeling [Scratch]
• 7 - Abraham [Also Ran]
• 1 - Hillbilly Royalty [Also Ran]
• 9th Race
• 7 - Lost Shakerof Salt [Also Ran]
• 12 - Stellastellastella [Show]
• $6.00
• 6 - Raise a Ghost [Scratch]

New Feature - Oaklawn Park Racing Tips (February 16, 2017)

My youngest brother (Lee) and I have become enthusiastic about following the Winter Horse Racing Meet at Hot Springs' Oaklawn Park. While I am just starting out as a handicapper, I would like to share my daily picks for the remainder of the season. I will track them and let you know how I am doing. I have added a PayPal button to the top left side for leaving gratuities. If you use my picks and have a good day at the races, please come back and share the fortune with me.

Through 20 race dates (180 races) at Oaklawn Park in 2017, the post time favorite has won 37.2% of the time while finishing in the money (Win, Place, or Show) 64.4%. I have been tracking how a $2 Win bet on every post time favorite ($18/day) would do over the season. I have good news and bad news. The good news - until last Sunday, someone choosing to bet on the favorite a couple of minutes prior to post would be having a positive year (+$4 over the course of 171 races). The bad news - Sunday's favorites pushed us into negative territory with only 2 favorites winning. For the 2017 season to date, a $2 Win bet on the post time favorite has returned $1.988. If you want to cash tickets, put some money on the favorites. They are favorites for a reason.

PLEASE, PLEASE, PLEASE treat going to the races as a $40 night at the movies: enjoy the famous Corned Beef sandwich, enjoy the show - watch the horses AND the people, and leave entertained (instead of out of money).

• 1st Race: Maiden Claiming (12500/10000) for 3 YO+ at 6 furlongs
• 9 - Enchanted Rambam
• 4 - Iftheyonlyknew
• 7 - Awesom Champ
• 2nd Race: Claiming (15000) for F&M 3YO+ (NW3 L) at 1 mile
• 9 - Classic Arch
• 8 - Counton Claire
• 4 - Flashy Ruthie
• 3rd Race: Claiming (7500) for 3YO+ (NW2 L) at 1 1/16 mile
• 7 - The Rouge Diesel
• 8 - Shootout
• 4 - Crush
• 4th Race: Maiden Claiming (40000/35000) 3YO+ (Arkansas Bred) at 1 1/16 mile
• 6 - J P of Galilee
• 4 - Bud's Mr. B
• 1/1A - Gumshoe/Zapper Dan 
• 5th Race: Starter Allowance for 4YO+ (Started for 7500 or less) at 6 furlongs
• 1 - Big Sugarush
• 2 - Dynamic Impact
• 7 - Areed
•  6th Race: Starter Allowance for 3YO+ (Started for 40000 or less OR NW2 L) at 1 1/16 mile
• 2 - Tonbo
• 4 - Rank
• 6 - Stand Guard
• 7th Race: Maiden Special Weight for F&M 3YO+ at 6 furlongs
• 5 - Sanilac
• 4 - Jungle Lane
• 3 - Unsung
• 8th Race: Waiver Claiming (50000/45000) for 4YO+ (NW2 3M) at 1 mile
• 6 - Financial Modeling
• 7 - Abraham
• 1 - Hillbilly Royalty
• 9th Race: Maiden Claiming (12500) for F&M 3YO (Arkansas Bred) at 6 furlongs
• 7 - Lost Shakerof Salt
• 12 - Stellastellastella
• 6 - Raise a Ghost

Good luck! Remember to share your good days with me in the comments and/or with PayPal tips.

Can It Really Be That Long Ago?

Ten years ago, Kristy and I were entertaining some Aggie friends for Memorial Day weekend. It is not often that I remember exact details of a weekend evening, but this particular one will be with me for the rest of my life. I have started to write the "Seth book" (Kristy also has the beginnings of our story on paper). I have the outline and dates all down in a file and the "easy" sections fleshed out, but I have quickly found that it is incredibly difficult to write about some parts of the experience that has shaped our lives since that Memorial Day Eve. Below is the first section of a book that may never get completed.

~~~

Sunday, May 25, 2003 (Albuquerque, NM)

I climbed back up the ladder to finish installing the ceiling fan in the living room. Cable had patiently waited in a room that was lit only by the flashlight Kristy was holding while I had just sprinted up the stairs to answer the strangest phone call from my mother-in-law. “Russell, can Kristy come to the phone?” asked Suzanne. I let her know that the power was out, but Kristy could call back in a little while. Suzanne excitedly said, “It’s not an emergency, but tell Kristy to call us back - RIGHT NOW!”

The wiring of the ceiling fan and light fixture was quickly completed, and now, we were all interested to know why Kristy needed to call her mom in such a hurry. I tried to entertain Cable, Allison, and Abby (our Memorial Day weekend visitors) while Kristy slipped upstairs to find out what had put her mom in such an anxious state. Why would anyone start a conversation with “It’s not an emergency” and expect you not to think that it was anything but an emergency?

To this day, I can’t recall a single element of the conversation that went on downstairs with Cable and his family, but the memory of the conversation that occurred after being called upstairs is vivid. Kristy told me that there was a baby boy about to be born on May 31 (less than a week away), and the biological mother wanted to talk to us about adopting him. Suzanne and Bob (who live in Mena, Arkansas near the mother) were acting as the go-between for us. Kristy asked me if we wanted to try to adopt this baby. I remember that Kristy was concerned about money or any number of other things, but I told her, “Yes! Call her back. Tell her yes.”

I cannot pretend that we were not warned that there were some complications in the situation that we were presented. With adoption, there is seldom a warm fuzzy story behind the thought process that leads a young woman to consider that option for her child. On that Sunday evening, we were asked if we were interested in becoming parents of a newborn baby whose unmarried biological mother was a 15 year-old high school sophomore and biological father was an 18 year-old freshman fraternity pledge at Baylor University. The answer to the question of whether we wanted to be (or perhaps needed to be) this boy’s parents was an emphatic“Yes!” The answer we gave was the right one on that Sunday evening; the answer is the right one now; and the answer will still be the right one in the future. However, Kristy and I found out over the next 13 months that giving the right answer doesn’t necessarily lead to the outcome that you hoped or dreamed. This is especially true if you give that right answer in the high of learning that you are going to be a father for the first time.

~~~

Our "adventure" with Seth changed us in so many ways - some of them (most - if I am completely honest) were not for the better. Our decision that night still reverberates through our lives 10 years later. Doubt, fear, hurt, and anger (among other things) related to this time of our lives can still bubble out of me at weird times.

I am confident that Seth physical needs are being met. I pray regularly that he is being loved. AND, I have hope that one day I might understand why we were selected for this ordeal that was both a blessing and a curse. Sometimes, that hope is only way I can get that weird bubbling of emotions to calm down.

Seth, you are loved more than you will ever know. Happy Early Birthday, Son!

"Reflections of Grey" at a Discount

Reflections of Grey by J.C. Phelps

One of my favorite Smashwords authors, J. C. Phelps, is running a promotion for her "Reflections of Grey" novel until May 6. If you use coupon code "ER72W," then the price at Smashwords is only $0.99. 

"Reflections of Grey" is the third book in the Alexis Stanton Chronicles.  The first book in the series (Color Me Grey) is FREE on Smashwords while the second book in the series (Shades of Grey) is just $3.99.  I give both the first and second book in the series a 4-star (out of 5) rating. This 4-star rating corresponds to an about an 8 or 9 on my "Read Again Scale" from the old book review system.

If you are looking for a Robert Ludlumesque main character, you will find it in Ms. Grey. However, I don't think Ludlum would have written about Ms. Grey because all his main characters were men. I highly recommend giving this series a chance - especially since the introductory novel is free.

Tipping Point

Over the past few months I have been pondering why we (by we, I mean Americans) are willfully participating in tax evasion by a whole segment of our economy. It has been on my mind since we have been pounded on with the idea that the "rich" are not paying their fair share. It got me wondering if the "rich" are not paying their fair share, then who else isn't paying theirs either. I think you will be surprised that I am NOT taking about the illegal aliens getting paid in cash for their labor. I am talking about the concept of tipping the wait staff at your favorite restaurants. Don't get me wrong - I tip generously due to Kristy's experience as a waitress. I am also not saying that the people bringing me my food and drinks don't earn their money. I am just curious why we let a significant amount of their earnings go without paying the taxes that every other (legal) worker pays.

According to the U.S. Department of Labor, federal regulations require wait staff, servers, and bartenders to receive at least $2.13 per hour. If the tips received don't meet the minimum wage for other employers, then the employer must make up the difference. The restaurant owner relies on two things to report the actual earnings of the wait staff: (1) credit card receipts and (2) wait staff honesty for cash patrons. I am going to present an argument that a waiter could fairly easily dodge taxes on about $10,000 of income each year while at the same time reducing the taxes owed by the restaurant owner (by the wait staff's income being unreported). I am going to walk through this scenario even though I have never been a member of the wait staff. If I am wildly wrong on some of assumptions, please point them out so that I can learn something.

Here are the assumptions that I am using for a typical family or date style restaurant (e.g., Chili's, Appleby's, Outback, Olive Garden, etc.):

• 5 Hours/Shift
• 4 Shifts/Week
• 50 Weeks/Year
• 10 Tables/Hour [I realize this is probably HIGH]
• $40 Total Bill/Table [I realize this is probably LOW]
• 25% of Tables will pay the tip in cash

Using these assumptions, if a waiter only under reports cash tips, then that income is the equivalent of a $10,000 tip goes unreported each year. On a $40 bill, the difference between a 10% tip and 20% tip is $4. Multiply each of the assumptions by the $4 (5 x 4 x 50 x 10 x 0.25 x $4 = $10,000). Now, I realize that some tip less than 20% (or less 10%), but over a year, it is not unreasonable to me that a waiter could average a 15% cash tip rate. Even at just a 15% rate, that would be $5,000 of unreported income.

Now, let's look at the tax consequences of the lower value ($5,000) for the unreported income. For the waitress, this represents an avoidance of about $1,100 in taxes. How is that possible? Assume a 15% federal income tax rate, 6.2% Social Security tax, and 1.45% Medicare tax. Now, multiply those taxes by the $5,000, you get $1132.50 (this doesn't include state or local income tax avoidance).  The restaurant owner would be required to pay 7.65% (6.2% Social Security + 1.45% Medicare) of that $5,000 which is $382.50 [this doesn't include state or federal unemployment insurance taxes]. This is a total of about $1,500 in taxes that we have allowed to slip through the cracks or have simply ignored.

I want to be clear. I think you should pay the minimum amount of taxes that you are LEGALLY supposed to pay. I have no issue with using tax deductions, tax credits, and tax-free investments to reduce the amount of taxes that you pay. You would be an idiot to pay more if you don't have to do so. However, I am completely opposed to ILLEGALLY hiding income for the purposes of not paying taxes on it.

I have also been thinking about how I would change the restaurant business to fix this. Here is are the items that I would change if I ever ran a restaurant:

• Wait staff would be paid an hourly wage commensurate with their work.
• Training rates and fully trained staff rates would be different.
• Good wait staff would make more than the average rate.
• Poor wait staff would make less than the average rate or be let go.
• No tips!
• Acceptance of a tip would be grounds for dismissal.
• Price on the menu would be all inclusive (that is, tip and sales tax would be included). A $9.95 burger on today's menu would cost $13.50. Here's how that breaks down:
• $10 to cover food costs, overhead, and back of house wages.
• $2.25 to cover the additional cost of including waiter tips and additional payroll taxes in the bill.
• $1.25 to cover sales tax.
• We already pay this, but it is hidden by including taxes and tip when the bill comes.
• Menu and signage would include a statement like, "Please do not tip the wait staff. They are paid appropriately to serve you with a good attitude and respect."
• This would make me, as the owner, responsible for the wait staff doing its job - not my customers.
• This also takes away the necessity of the patron to evaluate whether or not it should be a 15%, 18%, or 25% tip. They could simply enjoy the service and meal KNOWING what the cost was before the check arrived.

In today's business climate, my restaurant would probably fail - as most restaruants do. However, I keep hoping someone will start a restaurant along these lines in Fayetteville (We went to one in Colorado Springs during a JOWOG meeting once - I loved it.), so that I could put my money where my ideas are.

Review of "The Last Roman"

• Title:  "The Last Roman (Praetorian Series - Book One)"
• Author:  Edward Crichton
• Finished:  March 7, 2013
• Synopsis:  An elite commando unit commissioned by the Pope during World War III is sent to take out a terrorist leader. In the process of capturing the leader, the unit comes into possession of a blue sphere which eventually transports them (with their modern weaponary) back to the Roman Empire during the reign of Caligula. Caligula, Claudius, and Aggripina all make it into this adventure/fantasy tale that attempts to use the odd blue sphere as the explanation for the madness of Roman Emperors.
• Impression of the book:  This book was entertaining and fairly fast-paced. This indie author could use a 2nd or 3rd edit through the middle portion of the book, but the editing issue really didn't prevent me from staying connected to the story. This was a "shot in the dark" free book on Smashwords that I surprisingly enjoyed. 
• Star Rating (Out of 5)
• 3.5 Stars

As I mentioned, this was a free download from Smashwords that is an attempt by the author to prove his writing skills. It is a full length novel that provides the reader with opportunity to figure out whether or not to pay for the next installment in this series or his other books. My recommendation on this book is to give it a shot if you like science fiction and/or historical fiction. The Last Roman is a clever mix of both.

*****

My recent experience with self-publishing a book has given me a new respect for the many authors out there trying to make it without the backing of a big publishing house. I believe that indie authors will lead the digital publishing era because of the control that route takes. Because of this, I have started sampling the free works available on Smashwords. As I complete them, I am making economic decisions about whether or not the author has earned my dollars with their effort. If they do, I intend to purchase their other books. You will be able to find my recommendations on "Russ's Smashwords Bookshelf" as I write reviews.

As of this post, I realize that I well behind on providing some of the reviews on my new bookshelf. I encourage you to surf on over to Smashwords and find the next best selling author. There are some really good story-tellers publishing there now.