Oaklawn Park Selection for March 8, 2019

It's been a while since my last post (1 week shy of 1 year), so obviously, there has been a lot going on. Rather than go into the chaos that is my life, I decided to start making Oaklawn Park selections again using a revamped version of my Monte Carlo for horse races. The new code is written in Python (I learned a new language since my last post) and has the ability to adjust the emphasis given to various factors. The current version allows for variation based on post position, jockey, and trainer. It is easily extensible (because, you know, Python), so if you have suggestion for additional factors to include, please let me know.

One of the drawbacks is that it does take significantly more time to setup and produce the output. I may have to write a web scraper and parser to automate some that in the future. I want to take a look at the results with the more labor intensive process before jumping that deep into the Python for that. The updated program samples the underlying total probability distribution 100 times to provide a top 4 based on the factors it considers. Without further ado, here is the tip sheet for March 8, 2018 at Oaklawn Park:

• Race 1:  11-1-4-3
• Race 2:  5-1-10-2
• Race 3:  8-6-3-4
• Race 4:  5-3-10-1
• Race 5:  7-6-3-1
• Race 6:  4-6-2-1
• Race 7:  7-11-4-6
• Race 8:  2-7-4-5
• Race 9:  3-8-2-7

I will again track the $2 Win bet on the top pick (accounting for scratches). I will also look at Exacta Key Boxes and Trifecta Key Boxes with the top pick over the rest of the picks. Using Race 1 above as an example, here is what I will be tracking:

• $2 Win on 11
• $1 Exacta ($6 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Exacta Box 11 with 1
• Exacta Box 11 with 4
• Exacta Box 11 with 3
• OR Exacta Key Box 11 with 1, 3, 4
• 11 / 1
• 11 / 4
• 11 / 3
• 1 / 11
• 4 / 11
• 3 / 11
• $0.50 Trifecta ($9 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Trifecta part wheel 11 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 11 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 11
• 11 / 1 / 4
• 11 / 1 / 3
• 11 / 3 / 1
• 11 / 4 / 1
• 11 / 3 / 4
• 11 / 4 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 4
• 3 / 11 / 1
• 3 / 11 / 4
• 4 / 11 / 1
• 4 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 3 / 11
• 1 / 4 / 11
• 3 / 1 / 11
• 3 / 4 / 11
• 4 / 1 / 11
• 4 / 3 / 11

I will not go through the different combination each time, but I thought it would be helpful to understand what the various wagers look like. As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you.