Monte Carlo Results from Oaklawn Park for March 1-4, 2018

Without changing the algorithm as I have been contemplating, the OakPick Monte Carlo software correctly chose 7 winners out of 31 races for a tidy profit of $28.60 (on a $2 win bet). In addition, a $1 exacta box play on the three contenders chosen by the program for the 36 races at Oaklawn Park this weekend would have resulted in a $70.00 profit. The full results of the OakPick predictions for the weekend of March 1-4, 2018 are shown below.

While the exacta box strategy is positive for the year, I still have very little confidence in it based on last season's results. For the same reason, I feel confident that the results on the $2 win bet strategy are likely to improve as the season finishes over the next 7 weeks.

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Results for March 1, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 8 - Superstyle (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Brockton George (Win) 
• 4 - Ninth Hour (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 7 - Senor Grits (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Como Se Llama (Place) 
• 5 - Midnight Shine (Also Ran) 
• 3rd Race 
• 1 - Mary Lou (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Dixie Flyer (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Elevenpoint River (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 5 - Plum Gorgeous (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Enchanting Embrace (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Big Red Seven (Place) 
• 5th Race 
• 3 - Tiz Funny (Win) 
• 9 - Snoose Sasa (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Tarpys Zip (SCRATCH) 
• 6th Race 
• 3 - Gettin Even (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Stormy Forecast (Also Ran) 
• 1 - One River Place (Show) 
• 7th Race 
• 12 - Mesa Skyline (Also Ran) 
• 1 - My Golden Tale (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Distorted Ransom (Also Ran) 
• 8th Race 
• 4 - Grade One (Place)
• 5 - Nuclear Option (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Pure Shot (Show) 
• 9th Race 
• 1 - B Dubya (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Jacob Rocks (Win) 
• 10 - Black Bomber (Also Ran)

Summary for Thursday, March 1 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 28 Days 
• $472 (236 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 19 (8.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $267.40 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$204.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 28 Days 
• $1,312 (254 Races, $1,524 - $212 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 20 (7.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,332.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $20.30

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Results from March 2, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 11 - Whatabout Lil Man (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Zapper Dan (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Cornstalker (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 5 - Bee Boppin Baby (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Blueberry Shine (Place) 
• 1 - Cinema Doll (Also Ran) 
• 3rd Race 
• 4 - Bay's Commander (Place) 
• 12 - Divine Counsil (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Rick's Stryker (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 1 - Wildcat Shoals (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Spur (Place) 
• 6 - Stay Home (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Carouse (Also Ran) 
• 11 - More On Tap (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Far Out Kailee (Also Ran) 
• 6th Race 
• 12 - Dontsaymyname (SCRATCH) 
• 8 - Ms. D's Last Storm (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Transformative (Place) 
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Black Bear (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Knights Key (Place) 
• 8 - Richie the Bull (Win) 
• 8/6 Exacta: $96.40 
• 8th Race 
• 5 - Moolamiss (Place) 
• 3 - Awesome Day (Show) 
• 1 - Baby Spencer (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race 
• 6 - Ravens Reflection (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Bravo Dixie (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Calusa County (Also Ran)

Summary for Friday, March 2 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 1 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 29 Days 
• $472 (244 Races, 19 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 19 (7.8%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $267.40 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$220.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 29 Days 
• $1,362 (263 Races, $1,578 - $216 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 21 (8.0%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,428.70 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $66.70

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Results for March 3, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 5 - Best Shoes (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Princessof the Nyl (Place) 
• 6 - Way too Smarte (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 4 - Gallopingguinness (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Zack Ridge Road (Place) 
• 11 - Early Shipman (Also Ran) 
• 3rd Race 
• 2 - Mr Darcy (Show) 
• 4 - Zaevion (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Notation (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 4 - Dreamcall (Win) 
• 8 - Ruby Sioux (Also Ran) 
• 1 - It's the Truth (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 3 - Exclamation Point (Win) 
• 4 - Articulator (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Pickford (Also Ran) 
• 6th Race 
• 4 - Bolitar (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Toasting Master (Place) 
• 9 - Matrooh (Win) 
• 9/8 Exacta: $9.00 
• 7th Race 
• 1 - I Am (SCRATCH) 
• 7 - Five O One (Show) 
• 2 - J. E.'s Handmedown (Win) 
• 8th Race 
• 3 - Golden Mischief (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Okie Diva (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Defy (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race 
• 8 - Tapsolute (Win) 
• 1 - Gray Sky (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Susan's Reward (Also Ran)

Summary for Saturday, March 3 at Oaklawn: 3 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 10 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 5 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 30 Days 
• $502 (251 Races, 21 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 22 (8.8%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $287.80 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$214.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 30 Days 
• $1,408 (272 Races, $1,632 - $224 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 22 (8.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,437.70 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $29.70

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Results for March 4, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Hung Over On Gin (Also Ran) / 1A - Tre Lee Divine (Win) 
• 4 - Uncle Pappy (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Tarpys Zip (Place) 
• 1/6 Exacta: $116.50 
• 2nd Race 
• 4 - Ella B Aly (Win) 
• 1 - Endless Bloom (Place) 
• 11 - Suspicious Lady (Also Ran) 
• 4/1 Exacta: $38.10 
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Irish You Well (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Moon Over Cuzco (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Malibu Tide (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 7 - Coco Honey (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Dark Bloom (Also Ran) 
• 11 - Tickled by Elmo (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 12 - Rippin Ranger (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - Mud Light (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Loyalist (SCRATCH) 
• 6th Race 
• 9 - Strike Rate (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Yellow Wolf (Place) 
• 3 - Hidden Bamboo (Also Ran) 
• 7th Race 
• 9 - Only Liquor (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Twirling Cinnamon (Show) 
• 6 - Fleet Gold Digger (Also Ran) 
• 8th Race 
• 2 - Smart Spree (Win) 
• 6 - El Charro (Show) 
• 5 - Purely Given (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race 
• 3 - Sturn Donna (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Good Wishes (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Mystical Temple (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, March 4 at Oaklawn: 3 Winner on Top Pick, 2 Exacta, 8 out of 24 OTB (3 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 31 Days 
• $516 (258 Races, 23 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 25 (9.7%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $343.40 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$172.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 31 Days 
• $1,452 (272 Races, $1,686 - $234 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 24 (8.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,592.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $140.30

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The OakPick software was really on the nose with Win Bets on the top pick. The win rate was 22.6%. This weekend raised the overall season prediction rate from 7.9% to 9.7%. As I mentioned last week during the summary, the expectation is that the program should pick between 12 - 15% through the entire season. Thanks for following along. The first picks of the new week of racing will come out on Wednesday night.