Monday, April 3, 2017

March 30 - April 2 MC Algorithm Results from Oaklawn Park

After this last weekend of racing at Oaklawn Park, I can finally close the book on the exacta box strategy for using the results of the Monte Carlo program. The weekend finished down by $77.30 for that strategy (37 races) while after 258 races the strategy is -$212.10. So, I will no longer update that "What if" game. On the other hand, the $2 Win strategy on the top selection finished with a boring $0.80 profit over the 37 races. That corresponds to a $2.022 ROI (on $2.00) for the weekend. However, the strategy is now $125.40 positive over the 258 races. The ROI over that time period is a very respectable $2.486 (on $2.00). I will track this strategy until the end of the season at Oaklawn. Below are the results from the weekend.

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
Thursday, March 30 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).
  • Race 1
    • 7 - Zella Rose [Win]
      • $17.20 $7.20 $4.20
    • 9 - Blushing Bird [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Facets of Ice [Also Ran]
  • Race 2
    • 5 - Officer Griggs [Place]
      • $4.20 $3.00
    • 6 - Euroway [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Dareandaprayer [Show]
      • $14.40
  • Race 3
    • 8 - Z Besha [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Benediction [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Promise Me Freedom [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 1 - Sammy Boy [Scratch]
    • 12 - Could Be Game [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Unyielding Storm [Also Ran]
  • Race 5
    • 9 - Pinchme I'mdreamin [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Heavenly Daze [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Schuyler Warrior [Win]
      • $23.00 $13.00 $7.80
  • Race 6
    • 12 - I Suspect Taylor [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Avisionofchocolate [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Dutch Parrot [Win]
      • $3.80 $3.00 $2.80
  • Race 7
    • 9 - Bombmarito [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Go Vo 11 [Scratch]
    • 11 - Mystery Solved [Scratch]
  • Race 8
    • 4 - Taxable [Place]
      • $3.40 $3.20
    • 6 - Curlish Figure [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Untouchable [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 5 - Green Moon Rising [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Tizuis Or Tizuaint [Place]
      • $10.00 $6.20
    • 7 - Awesome Mil [Also Ran]
Summary for Thursday, March 30 at Oaklawn: 3 Winners, 0 Exacta, 7 of 24 OTB (3 scratch), $126.40

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:
  • Exacta Box Cost Through 25 Days
    • $1204.00
  • Number of Exactas Hit
    • 15 (Out of 230 Races)
  • Total Return on Exactas Hit
    • $1025.20
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$178.80
Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 25 Days
    • $460.00 (230 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 30 (13.0%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $583.80
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$123.80
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************
 Friday, March 31 results (The original Oaklawn Park selections/tip sheet can seen here.)
  • Race 1
    • 11 - Lilac Wine [Place]
      • $4.80 $4.20
    • 8 - Craftys Lil Sis [Scratch]
    • 9 - A Song of Faith [Show]
      • $6.80
  • Race 2
    • 5 - Amber Creek [Win]
      • $13.80 $7.00 $4.60
    • 9 - She's the Most [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Bright Hope [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 6 - Never Give In [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Double Ours [Win]
      • $3.60 $2.60 $2.40
    • 2 - Deep in a Dream [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 9 - Isabell's Tiger [Also Ran]
    • 4 - R Fast Life [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Speightstime [Place]
      • $3.80 $2.80
  • Race 5
    • 7 - Elijah [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Fire Starter [Place]
      • $3.00 $2.20
    • 2 - Abraham [Also Ran]
  • Race 6
    • 11 - Red Leopard [Show]
      • $6.40
    • 6 - My Boy Lane [Also Ran]
    • 3 - See the Ranger [Also Ran]
  • Race 7
    • 3 - Corinthian's Glory [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Greeley's Striker [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Sandy's Song [Also Ran]
  • Race 8
    • 7 - Checkmate Charlie [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Five O One [Win]
      • $3.00 $2.10 $2.10
    • 4 - Bay's Commander [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 4 - My Sister Madi [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Star Quest [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Lady Kay [Also Ran]
Summary for Friday, March 31 at Oaklawn: 3 Winners, 0 Exacta, 8 of 26 OTB (1 scratch), $68.80

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:
  • Exacta Box Cost Through 26 Days
    • $1254.00
  • Number of Exactas Hit
    • 15 (Out of 239 Races)
  • Total Return on Exactas Hit
    • $1025.20
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$228.80
Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 26 Days
    • $478.00 (239 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 31 (13.0%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $597.60
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$119.60
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
 Saturday, April 1 results (The original picks for Oaklawn Park are here.)
  • Race 1
    • 8 - Chasenthisdream [Show]
      • $4.40
    • 5 - Arctic Music [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Sanilac [Win]
      • $4.00 $3.00 $2.60
  • Race 2
    • 11 - Cat's Destiny [Scratch]
    • 5 - Magic of Believing [Show]
      • $4.40
    • 6 - Iver With an E [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 3 - Hot Item [Win]
      • $8.40 $5.20 $3.40
    • 8 - Magician Man [Also Ran]
    • 7 - Conquest Archie [Also Ran]
  • Race 4
    • 5 - Icy Dawn [Also Ran]
    • 12 - Secret Trick [Win]
      • $26.80 $11.80 $8.20
    • 7 - Flashy Ruthie [Also Ran]
  • Race 5
    • 5 - Way Striking [Win]
      • $13.60 $6.00 $3.80
    • 2 - Smack Smack [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Rocket Time [Place]
      • $4.00 $2.80
    • Exotics
      • 5/3 $1.00 Exacta: $25.70
  • Race 6
    • 3 - Gordy Florida [Win]
      • $5.60 $3.00 $2.40
    • 1 - Medal of Courage [Scratch]
    • 11 - Stormy Pacific [Also Ran]
  • Race 7
    • 3 - Valeski [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Far Out Kailee [Place]
      • $4.40 $3.40
    • 6 - Private Prospect [Win]
      • $7.00 $3.80 $3.00
    • Exotics
      • 6/10 $1.00 Exacta: $16.00
  • Race 8
    • 5 - Daringly Bold [Also Ran]
    • 9 - Visionary Tale [Win]
      • $3.60 $3.00 $2.40
    • 8 - Smokin' M'konahay [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 6 - Ms Fifty First St [Show]
      • $2.40
    • 4 - Premonition Creek [Also Ran]
    • 3 - Dixie Flyer [Also Ran]
  • Race 10
    • 6 - Greeleys Copy [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Reverend Sam [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Sing Him a Song [Also Ran]
Summary for Saturday, April 1 at Oaklawn: 5 Winners, 2 Exacta, 11 of 28 OTB (2 scratch), $198.10

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:
  • Exacta Box Cost Through 27 Days
    • $1306.00
  • Number of Exactas Hit
    • 17 (Out of 249 Races)
  • Total Return on Exactas Hit
    • $1066.90
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$239.10
Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 27 Days
    • $496.00 (249 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 34 (13.7%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $625.20
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$127.20
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Sunday, April 2 results (Check out the original picks for Oaklawn Park here.)
  • Race 1
    • 4 - Forafewdollarsmore [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Incitement [Also Ran]
    • 5 - Moonlight Party [Also Ran]
  • Race 2
    • 5 - Kiowa Can [Also Ran]
    • 8 - Big Statement [Show]
      • $4.40
    • 12 - Pampered's Lullaby [Also Ran]
  • Race 3
    • 3 - Explosive Candy [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Exploden Moonshine [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Ahh Youbetchya [Scratch]
  • Race 4
    • 6 - Savie [Also Ran]
    • 12 - McCurdy [Also Ran]
    • 8 - No Mo Jo [Win]
      • $17.80 $9.80 $5.40
  • Race 5
    • 3 - Midnight Shine [Win]
      • $16.20 $8.00 $4.40
    • 7 - Smartified [Place]
      • $7.60 $4.00
    • 8 - Big Sugarush [Also Ran]
    • Exotics
      • 3/7 $1.00 Exacta: $69.00
  • Race 6
    • 6 - Wind Hopper [Also Ran]
    • 5 - With Every Hope [Also Ran]
    • 11 - Chef Karen [Scratch]
  • Race 7
    • 2 - Jury Wise [Also Ran]
    • 10 - Talk That Talk [Place]
      • $6.00 $4.20
    • 4 - Stormy Rhonda [Also Ran]
  • Race 8
    • 2 - Exquisite Lady [Scratch]
    • 12 - Can't Touch Me [Also Ran]
    • 4 - Justa Lady [Also Ran]
  • Race 9
    • 12 - Dancetothebeat [Also Ran]
    • 6 - Is Out [Also Ran]
    • 2 - Crafty's Girl [Show]
      • $7.40
Summary for Sunday, April 2 at Oaklawn: 2 Winners, 1 Exacta, 6 of 24 OTB (3 scratch), $164.20

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:
  • Exacta Box Cost Through 28 Days
    • $1348.00
  • Number of Exactas Hit
    • 18 (Out of 258 Races)
  • Total Return on Exactas Hit
    • $1135.90
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • -$212.10
Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:
  • $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 28 Days
    • $516.00 (258 Races)
  • Number of Winners Hit
    • 35 (13.6%)
  • Total Return on Winners
    • $641.40
  • Running Profit/Loss
    • +$125.40
 
************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ ************** 
Well, that's a wrap for last week's racing. Check back here on Thursday for a new week of picks by my Monte Carlo program.

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