Summary of April 27, 2019 Oaklawn Contest

Time got away from me while trying to follow the contest between Lee, Adam, and me on Saturday. Below are the results race by race (from Race 4) reconstructed from my phone.

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Race 4 (3-7-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($15):

• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Trifecta: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00 
• $1.00 Double: 2,3,4 / 1 ($3)
• Return: $0.00 

Lee ($6):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 5,7  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 3,5  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 3,7  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($10):

• $10 Win:  5 ($10)
• Return: $0.00  

Standings after Race 4:  

• Russ:  $88.80
• Lee: $82.70
• Adam: $60.00

************************

Race 5 (3-4-2-6) Selections:

Adam ($5):

• $1.00 Exacta: 1/ 3, 8, 9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8 / 1,8 / 3,9 ($2)
• Return: $0.00

Lee ($6):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,2,3  / 4,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,3,8  / 4,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($9):

• $5.00 Win: 1 ($5)
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta: 1 / 4,8 ($4)
• Return: $0.00 

Standings after Race 5:  

• Russ:  $79.80
• Lee: $76.70
• Adam: $55.00

************************

Race 6 (5-2-1-8) Selections:

Adam (Pass):

• No selections (Pass)

Lee ($4):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,5 / 3,6 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,8 / 3,6 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($15):

• $10.00 Exacta: 8 / 5 ($10)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Exacta: 5 / 8 ($5)
• Return: $0.00 

Standings after Race 6:  

• Lee: $72.70
• Russ:  $64.80
• Adam: $55.00

************************

Race 7 (10-1-9-2) Selections:

Adam ($6):

• $1.00 Trifecta Box: 1, 9, 10 ($6)
• Return: $40.20

Lee ($15.60):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 10 / 7,8,9  / 1,2,4 ($4.50)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 9 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 ($4.50)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.10 Superfecta: 10 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)
• Return: $0.00
•  $0.10 Superfecta: 9 / 7,8,10 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

• $25.00 Win: 10 ($25)
• Return: $57.50

Standings after Race 7:  

• Russ:  $97.30
• Adam: $89.20
• Lee: $57.10

************************

Race 8 (8-3-9-7) Selections:

Adam ($20):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,7 / 1,3,7 / 1,3,7,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Show: 9 ($5)
• Return: $15.50
• $2.00 WPS: 7 ($6)
•  Return: $0.00

Lee ($7.00):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,4 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 1,2,7 / 2,3,4 ($3)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($10):

• $10.00 Win: 7 ($10)
• Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 8:  

• Russ:  $87.30
• Adam: $84.50
• Lee: $50.10

************************

Race 9 (4-1-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($37):

• $0.10 Superfecta Box: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ($12)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Win:  6 ($5)
•  Return: $0.00
• $10 Double: 6 / 1  ($10)
•  Return: $0.00

Lee ($17.00):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,2,3,4  / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,4,5 / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

• $25.00 Win: 6 ($25)
• Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 9:  

• Russ:  $62.30
• Adam: $47.50
• Lee: $57.10

************************

Race 10 (5-1-10-7) Selections:

Adam ($16):

• $0.50 Superfecta Box: 1 / 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta: 1 / 2,7 ($4)
• Return: $0.00

Lee ($12):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,6 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,6,7 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($41):

• $25.00 Win: 1 ($25)
• Return: $0.00
• $4.00 Exacta Key Box:  1 / 2,7 ($16)
•  Return: $0.00

Final Standings:

• Adam: $31.50 
• Russ: $21.30
• Lee: $21.10

April 27 Race 3 Results, Race 4 Selections

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 3 on April 27:

Race 3 result: 6-1-3-8

Adam:

• Bankroll at risk ($7.00)
• $2.00 Exacta Box:  3, 6 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3,6 / 3,6 / 7,8,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $3.00 Double:  11 / 3 ($3)
• Return: $0.00 (started Race 2)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $75.00 + $0.00 = $75.00

Lee:

• Bankroll at risk ($7.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 3,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 6,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)
• Return: $0.00
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $88.70 + $0.00 = $88.70

Russ:

• Bankroll at risk ($10.00)
• $3.00 Exacta: 7 / 6 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Exacta: 6 / 7
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Double: 6,7 / 5
• Return: -- (see Race 4)
• $2.00 Double:  11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)
• Return: 10.80 (started Race 3)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $88.00 + $10.80 = $98.80

Standings after Race 3:  

• Russ:  $98.80
• Lee: $88.70
• Adam: $75.00

************************

Race 4 Selections:

Adam ($15):

• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• $1.00 Trifecta: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• $1.00 Double: 2,3,4 / 1 ($3)

Lee ($6):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 5,7  / 2,4 ($2)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 3,5  / 2,4 ($2)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 3,7  / 2,4 ($2)

Russ ($10):

• $10 Win:  5 ($10)

April 27 Race 2 Results, Race 3 Selections

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 3 on April 27:

Race 2 result: 11-12-2-6

Adam:

• Bankroll at risk ($12.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 11 / 4,5 / 4, 5 ($1)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 4, 11 ($2)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 5, 11 ($2)
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Show:  4, 5 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $3.00 Double:  11 / 3 ($3)
• Return: -- (see Race 3)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $82.00 + $0.00 = $82.00

Lee:

• Bankroll at risk ($4)
• $2.00 Win: 11 ($2)
• Return: $3.20
• $2.00 Show: 6 ($2)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)
• Return: $7.00 (started Race 1)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $85.50 + $10.20 = $95.70

Russ:

• Bankroll at risk ($8.00)
• $2.00 Double:  11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)
• Return: -- (see Race 3)
• $3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)
• Return: $21.00 (started Race 1)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $77.00 + $21.00 = $98.00

Standings after Race 2:  

• Russ:  $98.00
• Lee: $95.70
• Adam: $82.00

************************

Race 2 Selections:

Adam ($7):

• $2.00 Exacta Box:  3, 6 ($4)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3,6 / 3,6 / 7,8,9 ($3)

Lee ($7):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 3,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 6,7,8 / 5,7,8 ($3.50)

Russ ($10):

• $3.00 Exacta: 7 / 6
• $5.00 Exacta: 6 / 7
• $2.00 Double: 6,7 / 5

April 27, 2019 Race 1 Results, Race 2 Selections

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 1 on April 27:

Race 1 result: 3-6-7-2

Adam:

• Bankroll at risk ($6.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)
• Return: $0.00
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $94.00 + $0.00 = $94.00

Lee:

• Bankroll at risk ($10.50)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)
• Return:  $0.00
• $1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)
• Return: -- (see Race 2)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $89.50 + $0.00 = $89.50

Russ:

• Bankroll at risk ($15.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)
• Return: -- (see Race 2)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $85.00 + $0.00 = $85.00

Current standings:  

• Adam: $94.00
• Lee:  $89.50
• Russ: $85.00

************************

Race 2 Selections:

Adam ($12):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 11 / 4,5 / 4, 5 ($1)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 4, 11 ($2)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 5, 11 ($2)
• $2.00 Show:  4, 5 ($4)
• $3.00 Double:  11 / 3 ($3)

Lee ($4):

• $2.00 Win: 11 ($2)
• $2.00 Show: 6 ($2)

Russ ($8):

• $2.00 Double:  11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)

Friendly Oaklawn Park Contest for April 27, 2019

My brothers and I decided to have a contest on the Oaklawn Park card for April 27. Each of us starts with a fictional bankroll of $100. We have restricted the wagering to the following:

• Win
• Place
• Show
• Exacta
• Trifecta 
• Superfecta
• Double

As the contest goes on, we are allowed to use any winnings in future races. The brother with the biggest pile of fake cash at the end of the day wins the contest. 

Adam will risk $6 his bankroll in the first race with these wagers:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)

Lee will bet $10.50 in the first race this way:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)
• $1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)
• $1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)

I will put $15 in the fake pools in this first race:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)
• $2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)
• $3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)

I will post our contest picks during the racing day tomorrow. 

Oaklawn Park Selections for April 4, 2019

We are just a couple of weeks from the Arkansas Derby, and the Triple Crown trail has never been more murky. In any case, Oaklawn is looking forward to a great weekend of racing highlighted by the Carousel Stakes on Saturday. Here is the Thursday, April 4, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  4-7-5-2
• Race 2:  1-3-4-5
• Race 3:  7-1-4-5
• Race 4:  3-7-1-9
• Race 5:  9-4-10-2
• Race 6:  3-7-10-11
• Race 7:  2-8-5-7
• Race 8:  6-7-5-8
• Race 9:  1-9-2-6

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Selections for Oaklawn Park for March 29, 2019

The end of March is closing in on us, and by the end of today, we will know the 2019 Elite Eight in the NCAA basketball tournament. The Kentucky Derby is just around the corner - the first Saturday in May. Here are the Friday, March 29, 2019 selections for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software (a Python-based Monte Carlo racing simulation).

• Race 1:  6-3-8-4
• Race 2:  2-8-3-7
• Race 3:  4-7-2-8
• Race 4:  8-7-2-5
• Race 5:  3-7-1-2
• Race 6:  5-2-8-7
• Race 7:  8-3-4-1
• Race 8:  7-11-5-8
• Race 9:  12-7-1-11

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Tips for March 28, 2019

Here is the Thursday, March 26, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  9-5-2-1
• Race 2:  5-4-8-1
• Race 3:  8-2-3-1
• Race 4:  3-9-1-10
• Race 5:  2-3-5-9
• Race 6:  12-5-4-6
• Race 7:  6-8-4-1
• Race 8:  6-1-2-8
• Race 9:  11-5-3-4

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Sunday, March 29, 2019 at Oaklawn Park

We are set to close another surprising week of racing as the Louisiana Derby provided another shocker on the Triple Crown road. March Madness continues, and here is the Sunday March 24, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my PyPick software.

• Race 1:  6-7-9-1
• Race 2:  10-4-3-1
• Race 3:  6-1-4-3
• Race 4:  9-7-3-2
• Race 5:  3-6-2-7
• Race 6:  10-11-12-7
• Race 7:  5-8-1-7
• Race 8:  8-4-1-3
• Race 9:  4-1-7-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Selections for March 23, 2019

There are two sprint Stakes on tap in Hot Springs today: the Nodouble Breeders' and the Gazebo. Even with the focus of the Triple Crown preparation elsewhere and March Madness in full effect, there is an outstanding day of racing planned. Here is the Saturday, March 23, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my Python -based PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  5-4-3-1
• Race 2:  3-5-2-10
• Race 3:  4-1-6-2
• Race 4:  7-5-6-9
• Race 5:  7-2-5-3
• Race 6:  12-7-6-5
• Race 7:  9-5-3-6
• Race 8:  5-9-8-11
• Race 9:  2-3-5-6
• Race 10:  5-4-1-7

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 22, 2019

We are looking forward to a great weekend of racing as March Madness plays out inside our television sets. Here is the Friday, March 22, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick simulation software.

• Race 1:  3-5-2-6
• Race 2:  10-5-9-2
• Race 3:  8-2-7-3
• Race 4:  8-9-11-13
• Race 5:  5-6-10-4
• Race 6:  4-2-6-8
• Race 7:  1-6-2-5
• Race 8:  3-7-6-5
• Race 9:  10-3-7-8

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 21, 2019 Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet

Here is the Thursday, March 21, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  1-5-2-8
• Race 2:  8-2-6-7
• Race 3:  5-3-2-6
• Race 4:  5-1-3-6
• Race 5:  3-8-10-12
• Race 6:  6-7-11-1
• Race 7:  3-4-8-5
• Race 8:  8-2-7-5
• Race 9:  10-3-1-12

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 15, 2019 Oaklawn Park Selections

Here is the Friday, March 15, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  2-5-7-1
• Race 2:  12-6-5-7
• Race 3:  7-2-4-5
• Race 4:  6-2-4-7
• Race 5:  2-8-4-7
• Race 6:  3-7-2-10
• Race 7:  1-6-4-2
• Race 8:  10-6-8-3
• Race 9:  1-11-9-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races, good luck, and beware the Ides of March.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 14, 2019

There is a giant weekend of racing on tap in Hot Springs, Arkansas as the Rebel Stakes will be run in two divisions with Game Winner and Improbable as the headliners. The Saturday card will have over $2.5 million in purse money to distribute to the horsemen who have brought their competitors to the race track. However, before the big event, we have a couple days of racing to wet the appetite.

Here is the Thursday, March 14, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  6-7-5-4
• Race 2:  3-1-9-2
• Race 3:  1-2-5-9
• Race 4:  7-9-5-8
• Race 5:  7-13-2-4
• Race 6:  8-1-5-6
• Race 7:  5-7-8-3
• Race 8:  6-2-8-4
• Race 9:  10-6-5-4

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

First Weekend Results for PyPick at Oaklawn Park

In previous Oaklawn Park racing seasons, I went through the picks of the OakPick Monte Carlo program race by race. That process was time consuming and frustrating. First, I had to compile the results in a spreadsheet. The next step was composing a blog post with horse names, winning prices, etc. Finally, the statistics were discussed and theories expounded upon.

With a new program (PyPick), I have decided to "open source" my spreadsheet. This means I simply link to the file and everyone can see for themselves how the program is doing. Without further ado, here is the link to the PyPick Cumulative Statistics Spreadsheet.

As you can see for yourself, the $2 Win bet strategy on the top pick was a profitable one for the first weekend. The other two strategies (Exacta Key Box and Trifecta Key Box) were not. I will continue to those for a little while longer. To be honest, I was kind of hoping for abject failure - so I wouldn't feel the need to do the picks. That point may come later in the season, but the first weekend demonstrates that I need further testing.

---
Speaking of open source software, a piece of code that I wrote with my first student intern at Sandia National Laboratories was recently released under a BSD 3-Clause open source license. Here is the link to MatMCNP for those that have the need or want for isotopic descriptions of materials.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 10, 2019

Here is the March 10, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  1-7-3-5
• Race 2:  5-6-4-8
• Race 3:  4-9-1-3
• Race 4:  2-10-8-1
• Race 5:  5-4-7-8
• Race 6:  1-3-6-5
• Race 7:  6-7-11-3
• Race 8:  6-1-7-5
• Race 9:  9-6-1-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 9, 2019

As I mentioned yesterday, the process of producing picks using the new Monte Carlo program is more time intensive. I don't know if I will produce picks every day for the rest of the year. However, I do have a free Oaklawn Park tip sheet for Saturday, March 9, 2019. Here are the picks and the wagers that I am tracking:

• Race 1:  8-2-1-7
• Race 2:  7-6-2-3
• Race 3:  4-6-10-2
• Race 4:  6-12-7-9
• Race 5:  2-1-5-8
• Race 6:  5-11-6-3
• Race 7:  3-4-5-1
• Race 8:  10-3-8-1
• Race 9:  1-3-9-2
• Race 10:  7-10-12-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 8, 2019

It's been a while since my last post (1 week shy of 1 year), so obviously, there has been a lot going on. Rather than go into the chaos that is my life, I decided to start making Oaklawn Park selections again using a revamped version of my Monte Carlo for horse races. The new code is written in Python (I learned a new language since my last post) and has the ability to adjust the emphasis given to various factors. The current version allows for variation based on post position, jockey, and trainer. It is easily extensible (because, you know, Python), so if you have suggestion for additional factors to include, please let me know.

One of the drawbacks is that it does take significantly more time to setup and produce the output. I may have to write a web scraper and parser to automate some that in the future. I want to take a look at the results with the more labor intensive process before jumping that deep into the Python for that. The updated program samples the underlying total probability distribution 100 times to provide a top 4 based on the factors it considers. Without further ado, here is the tip sheet for March 8, 2018 at Oaklawn Park:

• Race 1:  11-1-4-3
• Race 2:  5-1-10-2
• Race 3:  8-6-3-4
• Race 4:  5-3-10-1
• Race 5:  7-6-3-1
• Race 6:  4-6-2-1
• Race 7:  7-11-4-6
• Race 8:  2-7-4-5
• Race 9:  3-8-2-7

I will again track the $2 Win bet on the top pick (accounting for scratches). I will also look at Exacta Key Boxes and Trifecta Key Boxes with the top pick over the rest of the picks. Using Race 1 above as an example, here is what I will be tracking:

• $2 Win on 11
• $1 Exacta ($6 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Exacta Box 11 with 1
• Exacta Box 11 with 4
• Exacta Box 11 with 3
• OR Exacta Key Box 11 with 1, 3, 4
• 11 / 1
• 11 / 4
• 11 / 3
• 1 / 11
• 4 / 11
• 3 / 11
• $0.50 Trifecta ($9 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Trifecta part wheel 11 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 11 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 11
• 11 / 1 / 4
• 11 / 1 / 3
• 11 / 3 / 1
• 11 / 4 / 1
• 11 / 3 / 4
• 11 / 4 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 4
• 3 / 11 / 1
• 3 / 11 / 4
• 4 / 11 / 1
• 4 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 3 / 11
• 1 / 4 / 11
• 3 / 1 / 11
• 3 / 4 / 11
• 4 / 1 / 11
• 4 / 3 / 11

I will not go through the different combination each time, but I thought it would be helpful to understand what the various wagers look like. As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you.