Oaklawn Park Selections for February 4, 2018

We close out another week of racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs on Sunday. Here is the February 4, 2018 tip sheet for generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Eye On Harper 
• 5 - Miss Azul 
• 7 - Roan Feathers 
• 2nd Race 
• 5 - Brahmie 
• 7 - Chiroc 
• 6 - Sattersfield 
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Chocolateicecream 
• 7 - Cass in Stone 
• 4 - Sports Reporter 
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Make It Work 
• 1/1A - John Allen / Bo Tee 
• 7 - Artesia Wells 
• 5th Race 
• 4 - Greeleys Charm 
• 3 - Chocolate Wildcat 
• 5 - Hubert Junior 
• 6th Race 
• 2 - Indian Gem 
• 6 - Liam's World 
• 1/1A - Donita's Ruler / Queen Kate 
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Queens Day Victory 
• 10 - Buskinfoalivin 
• 9 - Traci's Greeley 
• 8th Race 
• 4 - Cara Blythe 
• 6 - Vilaro 
• 5 - Avisionofchocolate 
• 9th Race 
• 3 - The Checotah Kid 
• 6 - Detroit Cowboy 
• 9 - Hank's Alibi

For February 4, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000168 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000013085 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000450435 
• P(6 win) = 0.00008979503 
• P(5 win) = 0.00114226710 
• P(4 win) = 0.00961414810 
• P(3 win) = 0.05353462714 
• P(2 win) = 0.19015786653 
• P(1 win) = 0.39096447173 
• P(0 win) = 0.35449218750

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.64550781250 
• At least 2 win = 0.25454334077 
• At least 3 win = 0.06438547424 
• At least 4 win = 0.01085084711 
• At least 5 win = 0.00123669901 
• At least 6 win = 0.00009443191 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000463688 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000013253 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000168

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will post a summary of the full week of racing early in the week.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 3, 2018

Here is the February 3, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Party Pants 
• 5 - Sing Prada Sing 
• 4 - Hot and Ready
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Rock Star Status 
• 4 - Top Player 
• 6 - Swordfish
• 3rd Race
• 8 - Jerrid 
• 1 - Shotgun Kowboy 
• 5 - Allidoisdreamofyou
• 4th Race
• 2 - Here Comes Kyle 
• 7 - Swither's Shortcut 
• 1 - Limation
• 5th Race
• 10 - The Rouge Diesel 
• 7 - Colony Strike 
• 2 - Glitnir
• 6th Race
• 10 - Just Fred 
• 9 - Oliver's Bull 
• 3 - Big Headed Jerry
• 7th Race
• 6 - Rocking the Boat 
• 3 - Wild Caramelo 
• 10 - Blame Will
• 8th Race
• 6 - Royal Squeeze 
• 5 - Prime Engine 
• 4 - St. Joe Bay
• 9th Race
• 10 - Mitole 
• 4 - Leinster 
• 8 - Eisenstaedt

For February 3, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000082 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006848 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000254922 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005519262 
• P(5 win) = 0.00076582832 
• P(4 win) = 0.00706162868 
• P(3 win) = 0.04326644626 
• P(2 win) = 0.16983388736 
• P(1 win) = 0.38750161415 
• P(0 win) = 0.39151278409

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.60848721591 
• At least 2 win = 0.22098560176 
• At least 3 win = 0.05115171439 
• At least 4 win = 0.00788526813 
• At least 5 win = 0.00082363945 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005781113 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000261851 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000006929 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000082

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 2, 2018

Here is the February 2, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Haus 
• 12 - Gallopingguinness 
• 11 - Alithia
• 2nd Race
• 6 - Dan the Tin Man 
• 5 - Handful of Stripes 
• 7 - Richie the Bull
• 3rd Race
• 10 - Zonly 
• 11 - She's Undawnted 
• 2 - Blushing Bella
• 4th Race
• 10 - Ghost Jumper 
• 4 - Run Juja Run 
• 8 - Delightful Joanna
• 5th Race
• 4 - Port Aggregate 
• 3 - Sword of David 
• 8 - Supreme Commander
• 6th Race
• 1/1A - Undivided / Charmin Dixie 
• 4 - Caramel Cream 
• 2 - Nucla
• 7th Race
• 1 - Zombo 
• 6 - Dark Helmet 
• 10 - He's Foxworthy
• 8th Race
• 8 - Upset Brewing 
• 1 - Bo Peep 
• 5 - Foxy Mischief
• 9th Race
• 12 - Savedbyanangel 
• 8 - She's too Cool 
• 10 - Markaiah

For February 2, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000096 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000007942 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000291553 
• P(6 win) = 0.00006212166 
• P(5 win) = 0.00084646995 
• P(4 win) = 0.00764761633 
• P(3 win) = 0.04580284135 
• P(2 win) = 0.17531455245 
• P(1 win) = 0.38904736070 
• P(0 win) = 0.38127604167

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.61872395833 
• At least 2 win = 0.22967659764 
• At least 3 win = 0.05436204519 
• At least 4 win = 0.00855920384 
• At least 5 win = 0.00091158751 
• At least 6 win = 0.00006511756 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000299590 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000008038 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000096
  

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for February 1, 2018

We are ready to kick off the month of February with live racing at Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs.
Here is the Thursday, February 2, 2018 tip sheet generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Pastiche 
• 8 - Woodhaven Diva 
• 5 - Herald Square
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Well Mannered 
• 4 - Senor Grits 
• 1 - Obvious One
• 3rd Race
• 8 - Summer King 
• 3 - Roberto Gato 
• 5 - Conquest Hiosilver
• 4th Race
• 5 - Samurai Mike 
• 10 - The Psychic 
• 7 - Electric Avenue
• 5th Race
• 7 - With Every Hope 
• 6 - Alittlecomplicated 
• 2 - Cotton Club Cutie
• 6th Race
• 8 - Big Axe 
• 2 - Coco Honey 
• 10 - Awesome Day
• 7th Race
• 1 - Onion Creek 
• 5 - Eskimo Kisses 
• 3 - Miss Darley
• 8th Race
• 10 - True Loyalty 
• 9 - Plainsman 
• 7 - Dream Baby Dream
• 9th Race
•  6 - Silverado Road 
• 5 - Perfectmperfection 
• 12 - Coach Avery

For February 2, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000113 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000009171 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000328809 
• P(6 win) = 0.00006847695 
• P(5 win) = 0.00091284898 
• P(4 win) = 0.00807741877 
• P(3 win) = 0.04743967045 
• P(2 win) = 0.17831749453 
• P(1 win) = 0.38924250794 
• P(0 win) = 0.37593820146

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.62406179854 
• At least 2 win = 0.23481929060 
• At least 3 win = 0.05650179608 
• At least 4 win = 0.00906212563 
• At least 5 win = 0.00098470686 
• At least 6 win = 0.00007185788 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000338093 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000009285 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000113

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

January 25-28 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

I can finally select a different adjective to describe the picks from the OakPick Monte Carlo program. There were actually two profitable days for the program this week, but the week ended with a loss of $9.00 over the 36 races. Statistically, the program is performing at approximately half of the level it should be. At the end of 10 racing days, the win percentage on the top pick is 6.3%. The winning percentage for the 2017 season was over twice that value (14.0%). For the 90 races of the meet, the OakPick algorithm is performing at a loss of $79.00 on top selections. However, the exacta box strategy on the three selections is running at a profit of over $650. I will continue to track both "What If" scenarios, and I anticipate the OakPick winning percentage will increase. Here are the results from this weekend.

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Thursday, January 25 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 12 - Button Mushroom (Show) 
• $3.80 
• 7 - Satin Suprise (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Miss D Irish (Place) 
• $4.80  $3.00
• 2nd Race
• 3 - Petal Path (Also Ran)
• 12 - Summer Tales (SCRATCH)
• 2 - Showreel (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 4 - Boomer's Boy (SCRATCH) 
• 2 - Dos Cuernos (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Tentwelvefourteen (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 9 - Eternal Force (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Nuclear Option (SCRATCH)
• 2 - Spinning Serve (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 7 - Pete's Play Call (Show) 
• $2.60
• 5 - Stump  (Also Ran) 
• 4 - W. B. Smudge (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 4 - Best Shoes (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Longway Home (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Dance Like Katie (Also Ran)
• 7th Race
• 9 - Armando's Star (Show) 
• $3.80 
• 1/1A - King of Anything (SCRATCH) /  Charlesbrecknridge (Also Ran)
• 5 - Never Give In (SCRATCH)
• 8th Race 
• 1 - Katalust (Place) 
• $5.60  $2.80 
• 2 - Donita's Ruler (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Stealth Drone (Show)  
• $2.60
• 9th Race 
• 12 - Ramblin Fever (Win) 
• $24.00 $9.60 $6.80 
• 4 - Country Fast (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Desert Domination (Place) 
• $4.60 $3.40 
• 12/8 Exacta:  $50.60

Summary for Thursday, January 25 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 22 OTB (5 scratch), $128.00

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 7 Days 
• $112.00 (56 Races, 7 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 4 (7.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $50.00 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$62.00

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 7 Days
• $308.00 (63 Races, $378 - $70 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 5 (7.9%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $967.00
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$659.00

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Friday, January 26 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race
• 4 - Warcraft (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Vacanza (Show) 
• $3.20
• 3 - Midnight Shine (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 3 - Gold Stryker Zach (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Hamazingly Rich (Place) 
• $8.60 $7.00 
• 9 - Regalistic (Win) 
• $14.40 $6.20 $5.40 
• 9 / 10 Exacta: $64.60 
• 3rd Race 
• 3 - Flyin' Katnip (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Away to Town (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Drip Brew (Show) 
• $4.60 
• 4th Race 
• 3 - Flight Risk (Show) 
• $2.60 
• 6 - Powerful Ally (Place) 
• $3.60 $2.40 
• 1 - Moneymeister (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 12 - The Glory Music (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Perplexed (SCRATCH) 
• 1 - Cash for the Soul (Also Ran) 
• 6th Race 
• 3 - Icy Dawn (Show) 
• $6.00 
• 10 - Addy's Flowers (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues (Win) 
• $9.80 $5.00 $3.00 
• 7th Race 
• 8 - Lady Bay (Show) 
• $4.00 
• 3 - Double P's Tavern (Also Ran) 
• 7 - S S Taylor (Also Ran) 
• 8th Race 
• 8 - Dorodansa (Show) 
• $12.60 
• 11 - Breaking Bread (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Ruby Sioux (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race
• 7 - Trading Cash (Place) 
• $7.80 $4.40 
• 4 - Captivated (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Arizona (Also Ran)

Summary for Friday, January 26 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner, 1 Exacta, 11 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch),  $175.20

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 8 Days 
• $130.00 (65 Races, 7 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 4 (6.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $50.00 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$80.00

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 8 Days
• $354.00 (72 Races, $432 - $78 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 6 (8.3%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $1,031.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$677.60

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Saturday, January 27 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Whataclassylady (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Florida Bird (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Quality Street (Also Ran) 
• 2nd Race 
• 2 - Uncle Pappy (Also Ran) 
• 8 - R Double Trouble (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Cause to Action (Place) 
• $5.00 $3.20 
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Fleet Gold Digger (Show) 
• $5.60 
• 6 - Chubble Maker (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Twirling Cinnamon (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Dirty Diamonddeeds (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Papa Caliente (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Granian (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 3 - Langdarma (Place) 
• $5.40 $5.00 
• 2 - Niigon's Glory (Win) 
• $17.60 $8.80 $6.80 
• 6 - All About Ashley (Also Ran) 
• 2/3 Exacta: $60.50 
• 6th Race 
• 4 - Futile (Place) 
• $2.80 $2.40 
• 3 - Cu Rahy (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Rated R Superstar (Win) 
• $6.40 $3.00 $2.60 
• 7/4 Exacta: $7.10 
• 7th Race 
• 7 - La Key (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Hidenseek Sally (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Prized Bourbon (Place) 
• $4.40 $3.60 
• 8th Race 
• 7 - Factory of Faith (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - Thoughtless (SCRATCH) 
• 4 - Okie Diva (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race 
• 7 - Sabrena's Bling (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Running Back (Also Ran)
• 9 - Starstruck Kitten (Also Ran)

Summary for Saturday, January 27 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner, 2 Exacta, 7 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch), $150.20

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 9 Days
• $146.00 (73 Races, 8 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 4 (5.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $50.00 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$96.00

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 9 Days
• $402.00 (81 Races, $486 - $84 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 8 (9.9%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $1,099.20 
• Running Profit/Loss
• $697.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

Sunday, January 28 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• 1st Race 
• 3 - Honor Thy Father (SCRATCH) 
• 10 - Primal (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Surprise Prize (Win) 
• $25.60 $12.00 $8.40 
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Electric Avenue (SCRATCH) 
• 2 - How's My Bud (Win) 
• $14.40 $5.80 $3.20 
• 11 - Mister Grasshopper (Also Ran) 
• 3rd Race 
• 6 - Rings of Jupiter (Place) 
• $3.40 $2.60 
• 9 - Waco Bodene (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Score Time (Also Ran) 
• 4th Race 
• 3 - Nicky Numbers (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Texas Sky (Also Ran) 
• 10 - Fudge Proud (Also Ran) 
• 5th Race 
• 3 - Mahalo John (Show) 
• $3.60 
• 4 - Minegold (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Burgameister (Win) 
• $6.80 $4.20 $3.00 
• 6th Race 
• 6 - Primarily Gold (Also Ran)
• 1 - Five O One (Win) 
• $3.40 $3.00 $2.40 
• 2 - Suspect a Storm (Also Ran) 
• 7th Race 
• 7 - Plum Gorgeous (Place) 
• $6.40 $4.00 
• 11 - On Her Honor (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Avicii (Also Ran) 
• 8th Race 
• 2 - Awesome Gal (Win) 
• $31.00 $11.00 $6.40 
• 7 - Five Star Factor (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Sophie's Angel (Also Ran) 
• 9th Race 
• 8 - Anita Marie (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Archie's Girl (Also Ran) 
• 10 - American Holiday (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, January 28 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner, 0 Exacta, 8 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch), $160.60

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 10 Days 
• $160.00 (80 Races, 10 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 5 (6.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $81.00 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$79.00

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 10 Days
• $448.00 (90 Races, $540 - $92 on adjustments for scratches)
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 8 (8.9%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $1,099.20
• Running Profit/Loss
• $651.20

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ *************

That wraps up the month of January at Oaklawn. Going forward the summaries are going to be much shorter. I am only going to include the Win, Place, Show, or Also Ran. I will no longer include the prices except for the exactas. I will continue with the summary format used on the What If games. See you back here for the start of February racing on Thursday.

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 28, 2018

The Sunday, January 28, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program) is found below. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 3 - Honor Thy Father 
• 10 - Primal 
• 5 - Surprise Prize
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Electric Avenue
• 2 - How's My Bud 
• 11 - Mister Grasshopper
• 3rd Race
• 6 - Rings of Jupiter 
• 9 - Waco Bodene 
• 8 - Score Time
• 4th Race
• 3 - Nicky Numbers 
• 1 - Texas Sky 
• 10 - Fudge Proud
• 5th Race
• 3 - Mahalo John
• 4 - Minegold 
• 2 - Burgameister
• 6th Race
• 6 - Primarily Gold 
• 1 - Five O One 
• 2 - Suspect a Storm
• 7th Race
• 7 - Plum Gorgeous 
• 11 - On Her Honor 
• 3 - Avicii
• 8th Race
• 2 - Awesome Gal 
• 7 - Five Star Factor 
• 3 - Sophie's Angel
• 9th Race
• 8 - Anita Marie 
• 5 - Archie's Girl 
• 10 - American Holiday

For January 28, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000078 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006547 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000244030 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005297575 
• P(5 win) = 0.00073815236 
• P(4 win) = 0.00684621524 
• P(3 win) = 0.04226658951 
• P(2 win) = 0.16749356061
• P(1 win) = 0.38660000000 
• P(0 win) = 0.39600000000

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.60400000000 
• At least 2 win = 0.21740000000 
• At least 3 win = 0.04990643939 
• At least 4 win = 0.00763984989 
• At least 5 win = 0.00079363465 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005548229 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000250655 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000006625 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000078

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 27, 2018

Here is the Saturday, January 27, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). If you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 7 - Whataclassylady
• 6 - Florida Bird 
• 3 - Quality Street
• 2nd Race 
• 2 - Uncle Pappy 
• 8 - R Double Trouble 
• 10 - Cause to Action
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Fleet Gold Digger 
• 6 - Chubble Maker 
• 1 - Twirling Cinnamon
• 4th Race 
• 10 - Dirty Diamonddeeds 
• 1 - Papa Caliente 
• 2 - Granian
• 5th Race 
• 3 - Langdarma 
• 2 - Niigon's Glory 
• 6 - All About Ashley 
• 6th Race 
• 4 - Futile 
• 3 - Cu Rahy 
• 7 - Rated R Superstar
• 7th Race 
• 7 - La Key 
• 4 - Hidenseek Sally 
• 6 - Prized Bourbon
• 8th Race 
• 7 - Factory of Faith 
• 3 - Thoughtless 
• 4 - Okie Diva 
• 9th Race 
• 7 - Sabrena's Bling 
• 6 - Running Back 
• 9 - Starstruck Kitten

For January 27, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000111 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000009019 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000323562 
• P(6 win) = 0.00006747591 
• P(5 win) = 0.00090129803 
• P(4 win) = 0.00799564539 
• P(3 win) = 0.04710187857 
• P(2 win) = 0.17764466089 
• P(1 win) = 0.38914285714 
• P(0 win) = 0.37714285714

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.62285714286 
• At least 2 win = 0.23371428571 
• At least 3 win = 0.05606962482 
• At least 4 win = 0.00896774625 
• At least 5 win = 0.00097210086 
• At least 6 win = 0.00007080283 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000332692 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000009130 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000111

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 26, 2018

Here is the January 26, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). As always, the predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 4 - Warcraft
• 8 - Vacanza 
• 3 - Midnight Shine
• 2nd Race
• 3 - Gold Stryker Zach 
• 10 - Hamazingly Rich 
• 9 - Regalistic
• 3rd Race
• 3 - Flyin' Katnip 
• 6 - Away to Town 
• 9 - Drip Brew
• 4th Race
• 3 - Flight Risk 
• 6 - Powerful Ally 
• 1 - Moneymeister
• 5th Race
• 12 - The Glory Music 
• 9 - Perplexed 
• 1/1A - Cash for the Soul / Boston Marathoner
• 6th Race
• 3 - Icy Dawn 
• 10 - Addy's Flowers 
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues
• 7th Race
• 8 - Lady Bay 
• 3 - Double P's Tavern 
• 7 - S S Taylor
• 8th Race
• 8 - Dorodansa 
• 11 - Breaking Bread 
• 3 - Ruby Sioux
• 9th Race
• 7 - Trading Cash 
• 4 - Captivated 
• 2 - Arizona

For January 26, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000069 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000005951 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000226610 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005014613 
• P(5 win) = 0.00071051166 
• P(4 win) = 0.00668351048 
• P(3 win) = 0.04173193372 
• P(2 win) = 0.16676345218 
• P(1 win) = 0.38693609879 
• P(0 win) = 0.39712202075

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.60287797925 
• At least 2 win = 0.21594188047 
• At least 3 win = 0.04917842828 
• At least 4 win = 0.00744649457 
• At least 5 win = 0.00076298408 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005247242 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000232630 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000006020 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000069

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. The results of these selections and the the rest of the weekend's picks will be summarized in a single post early next week. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for January 25, 2018

Here is the January 25, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software (a proprietary Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 12 - Button Mushroom 
• 7 - Satin Suprise 
• 6 - Miss D Irish
• 2nd Race
• 3 - Petal Path 
• 12 - Summer Tales 
• 2 - Showreel
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Boomer's Boy 
• 2 - Dos Cuernos
• 6 - Tentwelvefourteen
• 4th Race
• 9 - Eternal Force 
• 3 - Nuclear Option 
• 2 - Spinning Serve
• 5th Race
• 7 - Pete's Play Call 
• 5 - Stump 
• 4 - W. B. Smudge
• 6th Race
• 4 - Best Shoes 
• 6 - Longway Home 
• 7 - Dance Like Katie
• 7th Race
• 9 - Armando's Star 
• 1/1A - King of Anything /  Charlesbrecknridge 
• 5 - Never Give In
• 8th Race
• 1 - Katalust 
• 2 - Donita's Ruler 
• 7 - Stealth Drone
• 9th Race
• 12 - Ramblin Fever 
• 4 - Country Fast 
• 8 - Desert Domination

For January 25, 2018, the probabilities for predicting "exactly X winners" {P(X win)} are the following:

• P(9 win) = 0.00000000074 
• P(8 win) = 0.00000006326 
• P(7 win) = 0.00000238224 
• P(6 win) = 0.00005216445 
• P(5 win) = 0.00073191357 
• P(4 win) = 0.00682358870 
• P(3 win) = 0.04226806827 
• P(2 win) = 0.16774281071 
• P(1 win) = 0.38698163152 
• P(0 win) = 0.39539737654

Here are the probabilities of predicting "at least" a certain number of wins for the OakPick top selection:

• At least 1 win = 0.60460262346 
• At least 2 win = 0.21762099194 
• At least 3 win = 0.04987818123
• At least 4 win = 0.00761011297 
• At least 5 win = 0.00078652427 
• At least 6 win = 0.00005461070 
• At least 7 win = 0.00000244624 
• At least 8 win = 0.00000006400 
• At least 9 win = 0.00000000074

To get the % chance, multiply the probability numbers by 100. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

January 18-21 MC Results for Oaklawn Park

Abysmal. Wait, I used that word for last weekend's results... However, it is once again appropriate for this last racing weekend at Oaklawn Park. The first disappointment was the frigid temperatures that caused OP officials to cancel live racing at the track on both Thursday and Friday. The second disappointment was the fact that the $2 Win strategy on the top selection from the OakPick program finished with a $23.80 loss over 17 races. The program picked just 1 winner for the weekend. The only worse weekend for the program was last weekend. Again, it is my belief that this weekend is a statistical aberration based solely on the win probabilities. On a positive note, the exacta box strategy for all 3 picks for each race is current running at a healthy profit of $644.40 over 54 races thanks to a $843.70 exacta on Saturday.

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Saturday, January 20 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• Race 1
• 10 - McQ (SCRATCH) 
• 2 - Special Concoction (Show)
• $3.40 
• 4 - Top Player (Also Ran)
• Race 2
• 10 - Ferocious Tiger (Also Ran)
• 11 - Runningunninrascal (Also Ran)
• 8 - My Curby (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race
• 1 - Dupree (Also Ran)
• 5 - State of Charm  (Also Ran)
• 9 - Bajan Cash (Win)
• $9.80  $5.00  $3.00
• 4th Race
• 8 - Diva of Disaster (Show)
• $3.00
• 5 - Queen of Wildwood (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Dorothe Marie (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race
• 2 - Grandpa's Dream (Also Ran)
• 10 - Chris and Dave (Place) 
• $7.60  $4.80 
• 6 - Compagno (Also Ran)
• 6th Race
• 4 - Snickerboxer (Win)
• $10.20  $4.80  $3.40 
• 1 - Bold Conquest (Also Ran)
• 5 - Pilot House (Also Ran)
• 7th Race
• 6 - Blame Will (Also Ran)
• 8 - Jazzy Times (Also Ran)
• 11 - Mexico Memories (SCRATCH) 
• 8th Race
• 1 - Getupbabygetup (Also Ran)
• 6 - Amy's Challenge (Win) 
• $4.80  $2.60  $2.20 
• 5 - Mia Mischief (Place) 
• $2.20  $2.10
• 9th Race
• 5 - Deflater (Also Ran)
• 10 - The Money Dance (Place)  
• $41.00  $11.60 
• 4 - Plainsman (Win)  
• $70.00  $22.00  $10.00

Summary for Saturday, January 20 at Oaklawn: 1 Winners, 2 Exacta, 9 of 23 OTB (4 scratch), $1,070.70

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 5 Days
• $78.00 (39 Races)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 3 (7.7%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $26.00
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$52.00

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 Sunday, January, 21 results (The original Oaklawn Park selections/tip sheet can seen here.)

• 1st Race
• 6 - Oliver G (Show)
• $6.40
• 10 - Patriotic American (Win)
• $10.40  $5.40  $4.20
• 2 - Macanao (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race
• 2 - Vyera (Show)
• $11.20
• 11 - Sturn Donna (Also Ran)
• 1 - Bloom Baby (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Sugar Buzz (Also Ran)
• 5 - Pistone Steel (Also Ran)
• 3 - Sky Flight (Also Ran)
• 4th Race
• 11 - Tempo Seeker (Show)
• $4.80
• 2 - Classic Pursuit (Also Ran)
• 5 - Single Gem (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race
• 6 - Easter Indy (Also Ran)
• 12 - Beautiful Honduras (Also Ran)
• 11 - Mary Lou (Also Ran)
• 6th Race
• 10 - Greyjoy (Also Ran)
• 9 - Ms. D's Last Storm (Place)
• $52.20  $30.60
• 1 - Transformative (Also Ran)
• 7th Race
• 1 - Royal Edition (Place)
• $21.40  $11.20
• 8 - Pryor (Show)
• $10.00
• 5 - Southsider (Also Ran)
• 8th Race
• 6 - King Ptolemy (Also Ran)
• 2 - P C Cowboy (Win-DH) 
• $3.20  $3.20  $2.80
• 7 - Pinson (Show) 
• $4.40
• 9th Race
• 3 - Unprovoked (Place)
• $14.60  $9.00
• 1 - Roll On Big Mama (Also Ran)
• 5 - Mo Mo (Also Ran)

Summary for Sunday, January 21, at Oaklawn: 0 Winner, 0 Exacta, 10 of 26 OTB (1 scratch), $205.00

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 6 Days
• $96.00 (48 Races, 6 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 3 (6.3%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $11.80
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$70.00

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Even with the horrific results of the past 2 weeks, the OakPick program is still positive for its predictions at Oaklawn. However, if the trend continues, we will be at break even at the end of next weekend. Check back here on Thursday morning for the beginning of a new week of picks by the OakPick Monte Carlo program. Hopefully, the program will return to last year's winning ways soon.