Summary of April 27, 2019 Oaklawn Contest

Time got away from me while trying to follow the contest between Lee, Adam, and me on Saturday. Below are the results race by race (from Race 4) reconstructed from my phone.

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Race 4 (3-7-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($15):

• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Trifecta: 2, 3, 4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00 
• $1.00 Double: 2,3,4 / 1 ($3)
• Return: $0.00 

Lee ($6):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 5,7  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 3,5  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 3,7  / 2,4 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($10):

• $10 Win:  5 ($10)
• Return: $0.00  

Standings after Race 4:  

• Russ:  $88.80
• Lee: $82.70
• Adam: $60.00

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Race 5 (3-4-2-6) Selections:

Adam ($5):

• $1.00 Exacta: 1/ 3, 8, 9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1,8 / 1,8 / 3,9 ($2)
• Return: $0.00

Lee ($6):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,2,3  / 4,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,3,8  / 4,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($9):

• $5.00 Win: 1 ($5)
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta: 1 / 4,8 ($4)
• Return: $0.00 

Standings after Race 5:  

• Russ:  $79.80
• Lee: $76.70
• Adam: $55.00

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Race 6 (5-2-1-8) Selections:

Adam (Pass):

• No selections (Pass)

Lee ($4):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 1,5 / 3,6 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,8 / 3,6 ($2)
• Return: $0.00  

Russ ($15):

• $10.00 Exacta: 8 / 5 ($10)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Exacta: 5 / 8 ($5)
• Return: $0.00 

Standings after Race 6:  

• Lee: $72.70
• Russ:  $64.80
• Adam: $55.00

************************

Race 7 (10-1-9-2) Selections:

Adam ($6):

• $1.00 Trifecta Box: 1, 9, 10 ($6)
• Return: $40.20

Lee ($15.60):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 10 / 7,8,9  / 1,2,4 ($4.50)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 9 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 ($4.50)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.10 Superfecta: 10 / 7,8,9 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)
• Return: $0.00
•  $0.10 Superfecta: 9 / 7,8,10 / 1,2,4 / 3,4,5,6 ($3.30)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

• $25.00 Win: 10 ($25)
• Return: $57.50

Standings after Race 7:  

• Russ:  $97.30
• Adam: $89.20
• Lee: $57.10

************************

Race 8 (8-3-9-7) Selections:

Adam ($20):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 1,3,7 / 1,3,7 / 1,3,7,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Show: 9 ($5)
• Return: $15.50
• $2.00 WPS: 7 ($6)
•  Return: $0.00

Lee ($7.00):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,3 / 2,3,4 ($3)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 3 / 1,2,7 / 2,3,4 ($3)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($10):

• $10.00 Win: 7 ($10)
• Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 8:  

• Russ:  $87.30
• Adam: $84.50
• Lee: $50.10

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Race 9 (4-1-6-5) Selections:

Adam ($37):

• $0.10 Superfecta Box: 1, 2, 3, 4, 6 ($12)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 / 1,2,3,4 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta: 6 / 1,2,3,4 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $5.00 Win:  6 ($5)
•  Return: $0.00
• $10 Double: 6 / 1  ($10)
•  Return: $0.00

Lee ($17.00):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 5 / 1,2,3,4  / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,4,5 / 3,4,6,8 ($8.50)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($25):

• $25.00 Win: 6 ($25)
• Return: $0.00

Standings after Race 9:  

• Russ:  $62.30
• Adam: $47.50
• Lee: $57.10

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Race 10 (5-1-10-7) Selections:

Adam ($16):

• $0.50 Superfecta Box: 1 / 2,7 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 1 / 2,3,5,7 / 2,3,5,7 ($6)
• Return: $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta: 1 / 2,7 ($4)
• Return: $0.00

Lee ($12):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 7 / 1,2,6 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00  
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2 / 1,6,7 / 3,4,8,9 ($6)
• Return: $0.00

Russ ($41):

• $25.00 Win: 1 ($25)
• Return: $0.00
• $4.00 Exacta Key Box:  1 / 2,7 ($16)
•  Return: $0.00

Final Standings:

• Adam: $31.50 
• Russ: $21.30
• Lee: $21.10

April 27, 2019 Race 1 Results, Race 2 Selections

Here are the Oaklawn Park contest standings after Race 1 on April 27:

Race 1 result: 3-6-7-2

Adam:

• Bankroll at risk ($6.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)
• Return: $0.00
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $94.00 + $0.00 = $94.00

Lee:

• Bankroll at risk ($10.50)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• Return: $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)
• Return: $0.00
• $1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)
• Return:  $0.00
• $1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)
• Return: -- (see Race 2)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $89.50 + $0.00 = $89.50

Russ:

• Bankroll at risk ($15.00)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.00
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.00
• $2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)
• Return: $0.00
• $3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)
• Return: -- (see Race 2)
• Remaining Bankroll 
• $85.00 + $0.00 = $85.00

Current standings:  

• Adam: $94.00
• Lee:  $89.50
• Russ: $85.00

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Race 2 Selections:

Adam ($12):

• $0.50 Trifecta: 11 / 4,5 / 4, 5 ($1)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 4, 11 ($2)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 5, 11 ($2)
• $2.00 Show:  4, 5 ($4)
• $3.00 Double:  11 / 3 ($3)

Lee ($4):

• $2.00 Win: 11 ($2)
• $2.00 Show: 6 ($2)

Russ ($8):

• $2.00 Double:  11 / 3,6,7,8 ($8)

Friendly Oaklawn Park Contest for April 27, 2019

My brothers and I decided to have a contest on the Oaklawn Park card for April 27. Each of us starts with a fictional bankroll of $100. We have restricted the wagering to the following:

• Win
• Place
• Show
• Exacta
• Trifecta 
• Superfecta
• Double

As the contest goes on, we are allowed to use any winnings in future races. The brother with the biggest pile of fake cash at the end of the day wins the contest. 

Adam will risk $6 his bankroll in the first race with these wagers:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,7,8,9 ($4)
• $1.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($2)

Lee will bet $10.50 in the first race this way:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,6 / 2,3,6 / 3,6,8,9 ($5.50)
• $1.00 Double: 2 / 11 ($1)
• $1.00 Double: 3 / 11 ($1)

I will put $15 in the fake pools in this first race:

• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 2,3 / 6,8,9 ($3)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 8 / 2,3 / 2,3 ($1)
• $0.50 Trifecta: 2,3 / 8 / 2,3 ($1)
• $2.00 Exacta Box: 2, 3 ($4)
• $3.00 Double: 2,3 / 11 ($6)

I will post our contest picks during the racing day tomorrow. 

Oaklawn Park Selections for April 4, 2019

We are just a couple of weeks from the Arkansas Derby, and the Triple Crown trail has never been more murky. In any case, Oaklawn is looking forward to a great weekend of racing highlighted by the Carousel Stakes on Saturday. Here is the Thursday, April 4, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  4-7-5-2
• Race 2:  1-3-4-5
• Race 3:  7-1-4-5
• Race 4:  3-7-1-9
• Race 5:  9-4-10-2
• Race 6:  3-7-10-11
• Race 7:  2-8-5-7
• Race 8:  6-7-5-8
• Race 9:  1-9-2-6

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Selections for Oaklawn Park for March 29, 2019

The end of March is closing in on us, and by the end of today, we will know the 2019 Elite Eight in the NCAA basketball tournament. The Kentucky Derby is just around the corner - the first Saturday in May. Here are the Friday, March 29, 2019 selections for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software (a Python-based Monte Carlo racing simulation).

• Race 1:  6-3-8-4
• Race 2:  2-8-3-7
• Race 3:  4-7-2-8
• Race 4:  8-7-2-5
• Race 5:  3-7-1-2
• Race 6:  5-2-8-7
• Race 7:  8-3-4-1
• Race 8:  7-11-5-8
• Race 9:  12-7-1-11

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Tips for March 28, 2019

Here is the Thursday, March 26, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the my PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  9-5-2-1
• Race 2:  5-4-8-1
• Race 3:  8-2-3-1
• Race 4:  3-9-1-10
• Race 5:  2-3-5-9
• Race 6:  12-5-4-6
• Race 7:  6-8-4-1
• Race 8:  6-1-2-8
• Race 9:  11-5-3-4

The wagers that I am tracking using this spreadsheet are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Sunday, March 29, 2019 at Oaklawn Park

We are set to close another surprising week of racing as the Louisiana Derby provided another shocker on the Triple Crown road. March Madness continues, and here is the Sunday March 24, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my PyPick software.

• Race 1:  6-7-9-1
• Race 2:  10-4-3-1
• Race 3:  6-1-4-3
• Race 4:  9-7-3-2
• Race 5:  3-6-2-7
• Race 6:  10-11-12-7
• Race 7:  5-8-1-7
• Race 8:  8-4-1-3
• Race 9:  4-1-7-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Selections for March 23, 2019

There are two sprint Stakes on tap in Hot Springs today: the Nodouble Breeders' and the Gazebo. Even with the focus of the Triple Crown preparation elsewhere and March Madness in full effect, there is an outstanding day of racing planned. Here is the Saturday, March 23, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my Python -based PyPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  5-4-3-1
• Race 2:  3-5-2-10
• Race 3:  4-1-6-2
• Race 4:  7-5-6-9
• Race 5:  7-2-5-3
• Race 6:  12-7-6-5
• Race 7:  9-5-3-6
• Race 8:  5-9-8-11
• Race 9:  2-3-5-6
• Race 10:  5-4-1-7

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 22, 2019

We are looking forward to a great weekend of racing as March Madness plays out inside our television sets. Here is the Friday, March 22, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick simulation software.

• Race 1:  3-5-2-6
• Race 2:  10-5-9-2
• Race 3:  8-2-7-3
• Race 4:  8-9-11-13
• Race 5:  5-6-10-4
• Race 6:  4-2-6-8
• Race 7:  1-6-2-5
• Race 8:  3-7-6-5
• Race 9:  10-3-7-8

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 21, 2019 Oaklawn Park Tip Sheet

Here is the Thursday, March 21, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  1-5-2-8
• Race 2:  8-2-6-7
• Race 3:  5-3-2-6
• Race 4:  5-1-3-6
• Race 5:  3-8-10-12
• Race 6:  6-7-11-1
• Race 7:  3-4-8-5
• Race 8:  8-2-7-5
• Race 9:  10-3-1-12

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

March 15, 2019 Oaklawn Park Selections

Here is the Friday, March 15, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  2-5-7-1
• Race 2:  12-6-5-7
• Race 3:  7-2-4-5
• Race 4:  6-2-4-7
• Race 5:  2-8-4-7
• Race 6:  3-7-2-10
• Race 7:  1-6-4-2
• Race 8:  10-6-8-3
• Race 9:  1-11-9-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races, good luck, and beware the Ides of March.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 14, 2019

There is a giant weekend of racing on tap in Hot Springs, Arkansas as the Rebel Stakes will be run in two divisions with Game Winner and Improbable as the headliners. The Saturday card will have over $2.5 million in purse money to distribute to the horsemen who have brought their competitors to the race track. However, before the big event, we have a couple days of racing to wet the appetite.

Here is the Thursday, March 14, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  6-7-5-4
• Race 2:  3-1-9-2
• Race 3:  1-2-5-9
• Race 4:  7-9-5-8
• Race 5:  7-13-2-4
• Race 6:  8-1-5-6
• Race 7:  5-7-8-3
• Race 8:  6-2-8-4
• Race 9:  10-6-5-4

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

First Weekend Results for PyPick at Oaklawn Park

In previous Oaklawn Park racing seasons, I went through the picks of the OakPick Monte Carlo program race by race. That process was time consuming and frustrating. First, I had to compile the results in a spreadsheet. The next step was composing a blog post with horse names, winning prices, etc. Finally, the statistics were discussed and theories expounded upon.

With a new program (PyPick), I have decided to "open source" my spreadsheet. This means I simply link to the file and everyone can see for themselves how the program is doing. Without further ado, here is the link to the PyPick Cumulative Statistics Spreadsheet.

As you can see for yourself, the $2 Win bet strategy on the top pick was a profitable one for the first weekend. The other two strategies (Exacta Key Box and Trifecta Key Box) were not. I will continue to those for a little while longer. To be honest, I was kind of hoping for abject failure - so I wouldn't feel the need to do the picks. That point may come later in the season, but the first weekend demonstrates that I need further testing.

---
Speaking of open source software, a piece of code that I wrote with my first student intern at Sandia National Laboratories was recently released under a BSD 3-Clause open source license. Here is the link to MatMCNP for those that have the need or want for isotopic descriptions of materials.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 10, 2019

Here is the March 10, 2019 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the Python PyPick software (a Monte Carlo computer program). The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• Race 1:  1-7-3-5
• Race 2:  5-6-4-8
• Race 3:  4-9-1-3
• Race 4:  2-10-8-1
• Race 5:  5-4-7-8
• Race 6:  1-3-6-5
• Race 7:  6-7-11-3
• Race 8:  6-1-7-5
• Race 9:  9-6-1-5

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 9, 2019

As I mentioned yesterday, the process of producing picks using the new Monte Carlo program is more time intensive. I don't know if I will produce picks every day for the rest of the year. However, I do have a free Oaklawn Park tip sheet for Saturday, March 9, 2019. Here are the picks and the wagers that I am tracking:

• Race 1:  8-2-1-7
• Race 2:  7-6-2-3
• Race 3:  4-6-10-2
• Race 4:  6-12-7-9
• Race 5:  2-1-5-8
• Race 6:  5-11-6-3
• Race 7:  3-4-5-1
• Race 8:  10-3-8-1
• Race 9:  1-3-9-2
• Race 10:  7-10-12-6

The wagers that I am tracking are the following:

• $2 Win bet on top pick
• $1 Exacta Key Box 
• Top Pick WITH others
• $0.50 Trifecta Key part wheel
• Top Pick WITH others WITH others
• others WITH Top Pick WITH others
• others WITH others WITH Top Pick

As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you. Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selection for March 8, 2019

It's been a while since my last post (1 week shy of 1 year), so obviously, there has been a lot going on. Rather than go into the chaos that is my life, I decided to start making Oaklawn Park selections again using a revamped version of my Monte Carlo for horse races. The new code is written in Python (I learned a new language since my last post) and has the ability to adjust the emphasis given to various factors. The current version allows for variation based on post position, jockey, and trainer. It is easily extensible (because, you know, Python), so if you have suggestion for additional factors to include, please let me know.

One of the drawbacks is that it does take significantly more time to setup and produce the output. I may have to write a web scraper and parser to automate some that in the future. I want to take a look at the results with the more labor intensive process before jumping that deep into the Python for that. The updated program samples the underlying total probability distribution 100 times to provide a top 4 based on the factors it considers. Without further ado, here is the tip sheet for March 8, 2018 at Oaklawn Park:

• Race 1:  11-1-4-3
• Race 2:  5-1-10-2
• Race 3:  8-6-3-4
• Race 4:  5-3-10-1
• Race 5:  7-6-3-1
• Race 6:  4-6-2-1
• Race 7:  7-11-4-6
• Race 8:  2-7-4-5
• Race 9:  3-8-2-7

I will again track the $2 Win bet on the top pick (accounting for scratches). I will also look at Exacta Key Boxes and Trifecta Key Boxes with the top pick over the rest of the picks. Using Race 1 above as an example, here is what I will be tracking:

• $2 Win on 11
• $1 Exacta ($6 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Exacta Box 11 with 1
• Exacta Box 11 with 4
• Exacta Box 11 with 3
• OR Exacta Key Box 11 with 1, 3, 4
• 11 / 1
• 11 / 4
• 11 / 3
• 1 / 11
• 4 / 11
• 3 / 11
• $0.50 Trifecta ($9 Total) - The combinations below are the following:
• Trifecta part wheel 11 with 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 11 with 1, 3, 4
• Trifecta part wheel 1, 3, 4 with 1, 3, 4 with 11
• 11 / 1 / 4
• 11 / 1 / 3
• 11 / 3 / 1
• 11 / 4 / 1
• 11 / 3 / 4
• 11 / 4 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 11 / 4
• 3 / 11 / 1
• 3 / 11 / 4
• 4 / 11 / 1
• 4 / 11 / 3
• 1 / 3 / 11
• 1 / 4 / 11
• 3 / 1 / 11
• 3 / 4 / 11
• 4 / 1 / 11
• 4 / 3 / 11

I will not go through the different combination each time, but I thought it would be helpful to understand what the various wagers look like. As always, the Tip Jar is available if these free picks work out for you.

Temporary Oaklawn Park Selections Pause

So, I have been making selections for the races at Oaklawn Park for the past 2.5 months using software that I wrote. However, the amount of manual interaction with the program results to get it on to the blogger platform has become too much. I still owe a results post from last weekend and I hope to get that up soon.

Anyway, until life slows down a whole lot or I get a chance to automate my posting ability in some way, I am going to pause in posting selections every day. I plan on posting a season summary and selection for Arkansas Derby. I hope the pause will give me time to think about how to improve the algorithm to get better results than I have seen this year. Have a good weekend!

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 9, 2018

Here are the March 9, 2018 selections for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by my OakPick Monte Carlo software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips.

• 1st Race 
• 6 - Internet Success 
• 2 - Young Corbett 
• 4 - Pray Hard
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Oh Newman 
• 5 - Future Express 
• 7 - Match Up
• 3rd Race
• 4 - Zombie 
• 3 - You're Killin Me 
• 1 - Bye Crazy Eyes
• 4th Race
• 4 - Royal Edition 
• 3 - Remembering Rita 
• 5 - Switheral
• 5th Race
• 11 - Lord Turnem 
• 10 - Bluebird Ridge 
• 2 - Tiz too Much
• 6th Race
• 3 - Sonny Smack 
• 6 - Lighthawk 
• 2 - Grade
• 7th Race
• 7 - Oro Bird 
• 1 - Stina 
• 4 - C J's Flair
• 8th Race
• 4 - What a Star
• 1 - Treble 
• 5 - Honor Way
• 9th Race
• 2 - Magic Eraser 
• 7 - Ray's Big Boy 
• 8 - Me N Logan Ray

Have a good day at the races and good luck.

Oaklawn Park Selections for March 1, 2018

Horse racing at Oaklawn Park kicks off the month of March on Thursday. The turn into March marks the approximate halfway mark of the 2018 season. While improving after a very slow start, the OakPick simulation software needs a big month to have a chance to match the results from the 2017 season. In any case, here is the Thursday, March 1, 2018 tip sheet for Oaklawn Park in Hot Springs generated by the OakPick software. The predictions here are free, but if you have a good day at the races with my algorithm, please share using the comment section and/or with PayPal tips. 

• 1st Race 
• 8 - Superstyle 
• 7 - Brockton George 
• 4 - Ninth Hour
• 2nd Race
• 7 - Senor Grits 
• 6 - Como Se Llama 
• 5 - Midnight Shine
• 3rd Race
• 1 - Mary Lou 
• 6 - Dixie Flyer 
• 7 - Elevenpoint River
• 4th Race
• 5 - Plum Gorgeous 
• 6 - Enchanting Embrace 
• 1 - Big Red Seven
• 5th Race
• 3 - Tiz Funny 
• 9 - Snoose Sasa 
• 11 - Tarpys Zip
• 6th Race
• 3 - Gettin Even 
• 7 - Stormy Forecast 
• 1 - One River Place
• 7th Race
• 12 - Mesa Skyline 
• 1 - My Golden Tale 
• 9 - Distorted Ransom
• 8th Race
• 4 - Grade One 
• 5 - Nuclear Option 
• 1 - Pure Shot
• 9th Race
• 1 - B Dubya 
• 5 - Jacob Rocks 
• 10 - Black Bomber 

Have a good day at the races and good luck. I will post a weekend results summary early next week.

Monte Carlo Results at Oaklawn February 22-25, 2018

The sixth week of racing at Oaklawn Park brought a positive change of fortune. The OakPick Monte Carlo software ended the weekend +37.20 for 33 races (three top picks scratched). I was just about ready to scrap the whole thing and start over after the first five weeks of this season, but the program may just be catching its stride. In any case, here are the weekend's results.

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Results for Thursday, February 22:

• 1st Race
• 7 - Picture Tube (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Strawn's Cash (Show) 
• 8 - Reverend Sam (Win)
• 2nd Race
• 1 - Eidolon (Win) 
• 7 - Okie Toast (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Ornamental Iron (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 2 - Wild About You (Place) 
• 6 - Treasury Bill (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Perfect Saint (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 11 - Munyak (Also Ran) 
• 4 - East Moon Lake (Show) 
• 5 - Ray's Big Boy (Also Ran)
• 5th Race 
• 1 - R Nanalee (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Cats Honor (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Acumen (Place)
• 6th Race 
• 3 - Paganol (Win) 
• 6 - Indy Awesome (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Silver Spun (SCRATCH)
• 7th Race 
• 2 - Nonhelma (Win) 
• 5 - Notnthemoodforthat (Also Ran) 
• 1 - She Beast (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 2 - Eskimo Kisses (Win) 
• 1 - First Alternate (Place) 
• 5 - Sydney Freeman (Show) 
• 2/1 Exacta: $18.60 
• 2/1/5 Trifecta: $44.70
• 9th Race 
• 1 - Murika (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - La Fee Verte (Place) 
• 7 - Mandy's Grace (Win) 
• 7/3 Exacta: $21.60

Summary for Thursday, February 22 at Oaklawn: 4 Winners on Top Pick, 2 Exacta, 1 Trifecta, 14 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 6 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 24 Days 
• $404 (202 Races, 16 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 16 (7.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $238.40  
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$165.60

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 24 Days 
• $1,126 (218 Races, $1,308  - $182 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 16 (7.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,253.10 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $127.10

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Results from February 23, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 1 - Letsrockthisparty (SCRATCH) 
• 3 - Scrimps (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Kingofthefairway (SCRATCH)
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Moon Over Cuzco (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Sabbatarian (SCRATCH) 
• 12 - Belvin (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 10 - Trading Cash (SCRATCH) 
• 2 - Corbin (Also Ran) 
• 5 - Fareeq (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 2 - Get That Box (Win) 
• 5 - Dynabeaver (Show) 
• 3 - Luv Bandit (Also Ran)
• 5th Race
• 1/1A - Coastal Highway (Also Ran) / Daring Ego (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Ripe (Show) 
• 5 - Take Charge Easy (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 2 - Princess Drossie (Show) 
• 1 - Ma'am (Win) 
• 6 - Wholehearted (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 7 - Superstar Bea (Also Ran) 
• 9 - Savedbyanangel (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Frijolilla (Also Ran)
• 8th Race 
• 8 - Action Everyday (Also Ran) 
• 7 - The Red Dude (Show) 
• 1 - Rapid Dial (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 8 - General Sherman (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Taylor's Sense (Win) 
• 4 - Bow Ready (Place) 
• 3/4 Exacta: $8.50

Summary for Friday, February 23 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 1 Exacta, 8 out of 23 OTB (4 scratch, 3 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 25 Days 
• $418 (209 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick)
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 17 (8.1%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $246.60 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$171.40

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 25 Days 
• $1,166 (227 Races, $1,362 - $196 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 17 (7.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,261.60
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $95.60

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Results for February 24, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 6 - Freestyler (Show) 
• 5 - Bad Student (Win) 
• 2 - Hunter's Strike (Place) 
• 5/2 Exacta: $27.30
• 5/2/6 Trifecta: $32.10
• 2nd Race 
• 3 - Bluebird Ridge (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Farley (SCRATCH) 
• 5 - Nicky Numbers (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 3 - Serious I Candy (Win) 
• 6 - Graceland (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Promissory Note (Place) 
• 3/8 Exacta: $18.90
• 4th Race 
• 3 - McQ (Place) 
• 2 - Hillbilly Royalty (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Rippin Ranger (SCRATCH)
• 5th Race 
• 5 - Bubbas Dixie (Also Ran) 
• 4 - Husker Red (Show) 
• 6 - King Abner (Win)
• 6th Race 
• 6 - Mogowan (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Out of Hydeing (Show) 
• 4 - Berko (Also Ran)
• 7th Race 
• 3 - Fastanista (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Ministry (Win) 
• 4 - Avisionofchocolate (Place) 
• 7/4 Exacta: $24.50
• 8th Race 
• 6 - Wild Caramelo (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Mitole (Place) 
• 2 - Direct Dial (Show)
• 9th Race 
• 7 - Klassie Connect (Show) 
• 5 - Pastiche (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Wilburn's Angel (Win)

Summary for Saturday, February 24 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner on Top Pick, 3 Exacta, 1 Trifecta, 14 out of 25 OTB (2 scratch, 5 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 26 Days 
• $436 (218 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 18 (8.3%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $252.80
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$183.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 26 Days 
• $1,212 (236 Races, $1,416 - $204 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 20 (8.5%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,332.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $120.30

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Results for February 25, 2018:

• 1st Race 
• 2 - Do It (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Miss Discreet (Show) 
• 6 - Misty Journey (Also Ran)
• 2nd Race 
• 1 - Sophie's Pocket (Also Ran) 
• 7 - Sweet Sweet Kim (Show) 
• 6 - Miss D Irish (Also Ran)
• 3rd Race 
• 5 - Sidney's Ransom (Also Ran) 
• 3 - Shakedown (Place)
• 1 - Jimmy D (Also Ran)
• 4th Race 
• 6 - Chevy to the Levy (Also Ran) 
• 8 - Herald Square (Also Ran) 
• 2 - Pretty Greeley (Place)
• 5th Race 
• 7 - I Am Miss Brown (Also Ran) 
• 6 - Cheyenne Blues (Also Ran) 
• 2/2B - Okbyecya (Place) / String Bikini (Also Ran)
• 6th Race 
• 5 - Mr Ark (Also Ran) 
• 8 - October Sky (Show) 
• 2 - Detroit Cowboy (Place)
• 7th Race 
• 5 - Kalalou (Place) 
• 4 - She Has Risen (Also Ran) 
• 1 - Sparkle O Mine (Show)
• 8th Race 
• 3 - Vilaro (Show) 
• 1 - Prized Bourbon (SCRATCH) 
• 6 - Includere (Also Ran)
• 9th Race 
• 11 - Texas Jambalaya (Show) 
• 2 - Midnight's Fantasy (Also Ran)
• 3 - Waco Bodene (Place)

Summary for Sunday, February 25 at Oaklawn: 0 Winner on Top Pick, 0 Exacta, 14 out of 26 OTB (1 scratch, 0 winners)

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 27 Days 
• $454 (227 Races, 18 Scratches on Top Pick) 
• Number of Winners Hit 
• 18 (7.9%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $252.80 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• -$201.20

Current $1 Exacta Box on Top 3 Picks "What If" Game:

• $1 Exacta Ticket Cost Through 27 Days 
• $1,262 (245 Races, $1,470 - $208 on adjustments for scratches) 
• Number of Exactas Hit 
• 20 (8.2%) 
• Total Return on Winners 
• $1,332.30 
• Running Profit/Loss 
• $70.30

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We are approximately half way through the 2018 racing season at Oaklawn Park. The OakPick software is starting to come to life on Win Bets on the top pick. The win rate was 18.2% this weekend compared to the 6.2% for the first 5 weekends. The expectation is that the program should pick between 12 - 15% through the entire season. The picks for Thursday's racing will come out late tomorrow night.