March 23-26 MC Algorithm Results from Oaklawn Park

To sum up this week of picks at Oaklawn Park, the $2 win strategy on the Monte Carlo program's top picks was +$47.00 for the weekend of racing (37 races). Over the 24 race dates of the "What If" game, the strategy is +$124.60 (221 races). I was hoping the weekend would push me one way or the other on the exacta box strategy. It didn't because the weekend was positive (+$46.70 over 37 races) while overall the "What If" game is now -$134.80 over that same 221 races. I will track this strategy until the end of the season at Oaklawn before deciding whether to accept/reject this approach with the predictions from the MC algorithm. In any case, it was great Spring weekend of racing in Hot Springs. Below are the results from the weekend.

Thursday, March 23 results (The original Oaklawn Park tip sheet and selections can be found here).

• Race 1
• 9 - Numancia [Place]
• $6.40 $4.40
• 6 - Muster In [Also Ran]
• 1 - R Nanalee [Also Ran]
• Race 2
• 1 - Spider Walkin [Also Ran]
• 8 - Pinch Hit [Win]
• $8.40 $4.60 $3.20
• 2 - Bernardina [Also Ran]
• Race 3
• 11 - Kerugma [Also Ran]
• 7 - Key to the Bridge [Also Ran]
• 5 - King Coral [Also Ran]
• Race 4
• 6 - Holiday Man [Place]
• $3.80 $2.80
• 7 - Hunter's Strike [Also Ran]
• 9 - O T B Bob [Also Ran]
• Race 5
• 12 - Prada Has Bling [Also Ran]
• 4 - Atlanta Slew [Scratch]
• 7 - Baby Not Tonight [Also Ran]
• Race 6
• 5 - Jazzy Times [Also Ran]
• 3 - Attain [Also Ran]
• 1 - Big Squeeze [Show]
• $3.60
• Race 7
• 3 - Quick Sand [Also Ran]
• 9 - Francois [Also Ran]
• 4 - Areed [Show]
• $3.00
• Race 8
• 4 - Bordini [Also Ran]
• 5 - Conquest Twister [Scratch]
• 6 - Chief of Staff [Place]
• $8.80 $4.40
• Race 9
• 3 - Small City Girl [Also Ran]
• 7 - Girl Power [Also Ran]
• 1 - Impasse [Show] 
• $2.40

Summary for Thursday, March 23 at Oaklawn: 1 Winner, 0 Exacta, 7 of 25 OTB (2 scratch), $55.80

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:

• Exacta Box Cost Through 21 Days
• $1020.00
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 12 (Out of 193 Races)
• Total Return on Exactas Hit
• $792.50
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$227.50

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 21 Days
• $386.00 (193 Races)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 22 (11.4%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $445.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$59.60

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Friday, March 24 results (The original Oaklawn Park selections/tip sheet can seen here.)

• Race 1
• 9 - Pedlow [Also Ran]
• 12 - Red Nick Carl [Also Ran]
• 11 - Valid's Final [Scratch]
• Race 2
• 8 - Story Onthe Street [Also Ran]
• 11 - Captain's Mast [Scratch]
• 10 - Shootout [Also Ran]
• Race 3
• 10 - Sumpen Bout Sophie [Scratch]
• 9 - Tizway in Front [Also Ran]
• 2 - Galena Motion [Also Ran]
• Race 4
• 10 - She's a Corker [Also Ran]
• 11 - Lovely Carrie [Also Ran]
• 8 - Cherishabull [Place]
• $10.00 $5.20
• Race 5
• 5 - Kickstart [Also Ran]
• 10 - Eastern Sky [Also Ran]
• 11 - Her Case of Gold [Place]
• $6.40 $4.20
• Race 6
• 5 - Class President [Place]
• $6.40 $3.40
• 7 - Bold Shot [Show]
• $2.60
• 6 - Wild About You [Win] 
• $4.00 $2.60 $2.10
• Exotics:
• 6/5 $1.00 Exacta: $14.70
• 6/5/7 $0.50 Trifecta: $21.60
• Race 7
• 9 - Congrats Honey [Also Ran]
• 7 - Secret Trick [Scratch]
• 4 - Mango's Muse [Win]
• $10.20 $5.40 $2.80
• Race 8
• 6 - Dancing Dove [Scratch]
• 8 - Bellatori [Also Ran]
• 7 - Treble [Place]
• $2.80 $2.60
• Race 9
• 11 - Wicked Zar [Win]
• $11.00 $6.20 $4.20
• 4 - Cadillac Red [Also Ran]
• 10 - Cash Money Always [Show]
• $10.40

Summary for Friday, March 24 at Oaklawn: 3 Winners, 1 Exacta, 9 of 22 OTB (5 scratch), $138.80

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:

• Exacta Box Cost Through 22 Days
• $1054.00
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 13 (Out of 202 Races)
• Total Return on Exactas Hit
• $807.20
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$246.80

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 22 Days
• $404.00 (202 Races)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 23 (11.4%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $456.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$52.60

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Saturday, March 25 results (The original picks for Oaklawn Park are here.)

• Race 1
• 9 - My Name Is Hebe [Also Ran]
• 10  - Wicked Rascal [Also Ran]
• 5 - Faithful Neighbor [Scratch]
• Race 2
• 7 - Twenty and Four [Win]
• $8.20 $3.80 $3.40
• 10 - Giant Secret [Scratch]
• 9 - Charming Deputy [Also Ran]
• Race 3
• 7 - We Be Stormin [Also Ran]
• 6 - Meanbone [Also Ran]
• 1 - Goods Gone West [Place]
• $5.20 $3.80
• Race 4
• 10 - Party Marty [Also Ran]
• 6 - Uno Mas Brandy [Also Ran]
• 11 - How's My Bud [Also Ran]
• Race 5
• 11 - Rarin to Go [Win]
• $12.60 $6.00 $4.20
• 10 - Wirth Road [Also Ran]
• 5 - Anteros [Also Ran]
• Race 6
• 11 - Point After [Also Ran]
• 6 - Rage Riot [Win]
• $5.20 $3.40 $2.80
• 3 - Sturdy Allan [Also Ran]
• Race 7
• 7 - Jacob Rocks [Also Ran]
• 8 - Johnny the Jet [Also Ran]
• 3 - Purrfectpersuasion [Win] 
• $33.00 $10.80 $4.40
• Race 8
• 11 - Double Tuff [Win]
• $66.40 $25.20 $13.60
• 4 - Malibu Max [Show]
• $10.00
• 12 - Holy Bullex [Also Ran]
• Race 9
• 6 - Whistle Stop [Also Ran]
• 5 - Chanel's Legacy [Place]
• $4.20 $3.00
• 3 - Golden Mischief [Win]
• $7.40 $4.00 $3.00
• Exotics: 
• 3/5 $1.00 Exacta: $13.10
• Race 10
• 7 - Off Road [Place]
• $9.20 $6.80
• 3 - Grandpa's Dream [Win]
• $45.40 $18.00 $8.20
• 12 - Camalus [Also Ran]
• Exotics:
• 3/7 $1.00 Exacta: $204.90

Summary for Saturday, March 25 at Oaklawn: 7 Winners, 2 Exactas, 11 of 28 OTB (2 scratch), $549.20

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:

• Exacta Box Cost Through 23 Days
• $1106.00
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 15 (Out of 212 Races)
• Total Return on Exactas Hit
• $1025.20
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$80.80

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 23 Days
• $424.00 (212 Races)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 26 (12.3%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $543.80
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$119.80

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Sunday, March 26 results (Check out the original picks for Oaklawn Park here.)

• Race 1
• 9 - Guska Mon Shoes [Win]
• $8.40 $4.20 $3.80
• 10 - Naughty Moon [Also Ran]
• 5 - Sarah's Swingtown [Also Ran]
• Race 2
• 5 - Hypothetical [Also Ran]
• 6 - Unbridled Venture [Also Ran]
• 4 - Repent With Me [Also Ran]
• Race 3
• 1 - Chip Van Winkle [Win]
• $6.20 $3.80 $3.20
• 12 - Rippin Ranger [Show]
• $5.00
• 6 - Cap's Tale [Also Ran]
• Race 4
• 8 - Crafty's Way [Also Ran]
• 5 - Happy Anniversary [Also Ran]
• 2 - Tour On [Also Ran]
• Race 5
• 8 - Conquest Perfectlu [Also Ran]
• 6 - Well Mannered [Also Ran]
• 4 - Stealcase [Also Ran]
• Race 6
• 9 - Cara Blythe [Win]
• $8.20 $4.60 $3.80
• 7 - Another Stone [Also Ran]
• 6 - My Treet [Also Ran]
• Race 7
• 8 - Marine Pilot [Show]
• $2.80
• 3 - Conquest Streetwar [Also Ran]
• 4 - Zombie Alan [Also Ran]
• Race 8
• 3 - Johnny Obvious [Also Ran]
• 1 - Flash Attack [Also Ran]
• 8 - Wing and Wheel [Also Ran]
• Race 9
• 12 - Bogey [Show]
• $4.20
• 8 - Camp Cielo [Also Ran]
• 2 - Brother J. R. [Also Ran]

Summary for Sunday, March 26 at Oaklawn: 3 Winner, 0 Exacta, 6 of 27 OTB (0 scratch), $58.20

Current Exacta Box Strategy "What If" Game:

• Exacta Box Cost Through 24 Days
• $1160.00
• Number of Exactas Hit
• 15 (Out of 221 Races)
• Total Return on Exactas Hit
• $1025.20
• Running Profit/Loss
• -$134.80

Current $2 Win on Top Pick "What If" Game:

• $2 Win Ticket Cost Through 24 Days
• $442.00 (221 Races)
• Number of Winners Hit
• 29 (13.1%)
• Total Return on Winners
• $566.60
• Running Profit/Loss
• +$124.60

************** ~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~ **************

Well, that's a wrap for last week's racing. Check back here on Thursday for a new week of picks by my Monte Carlo program.